Mancini Trade Package

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

He was going to get 6-6. He’s sitting on an even .900 OPS. That would rank him 6th overall for 1B in all of MLB. 13th for OFs. 

But just like Ted Williams when he was hitting .400 near the end of the season, Mancini will keep on playing. 

[tntoriole]

Trey will be even better next season....you heard it here first.   He will turn into Paul Goldschmidt.   And Trey has had a better season than Goldschmidt this year too. 

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Trey will be even better next season....you heard it here first.   He will turn into Paul Goldschmidt.   And Trey has had a better season than Goldschmidt this year too. 

I want to know what they're doing with the ball next year.  If they go back to 2014 baseballs a lot of players will go from 35 homers to 22. I'm guessing they want to dial back homers by 10-20%, but they've never been really good at that kind of fine motor skills.  In 1987-88 they tried to get things back to normal and homers dropped 40% and offenses fell 2/3rds of a run a game.

[Redskins Rick]

22 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I want to know what they're doing with the ball next year.  If they go back to 2014 baseballs a lot of players will go from 35 homers to 22. I'm guessing they want to dial back homers by 10-20%, but they've never been really good at that kind of fine motor skills.  In 1987-88 they tried to get things back to normal and homers dropped 40% and offenses fell 2/3rds of a run a game.

really good point and it does make one wonder.

[wildcard]

My guess is they will try to adjust the ball to something between the 2018 and 2019 ball.  Back off a little to limit the HR records but keep it lively enough to make the game action interesting.

[Larry18]

27 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I want to know what they're doing with the ball next year.  If they go back to 2014 baseballs a lot of players will go from 35 homers to 22. I'm guessing they want to dial back homers by 10-20%, but they've never been really good at that kind of fine motor skills.  In 1987-88 they tried to get things back to normal and homers dropped 40% and offenses fell 2/3rds of a run a game.

This is the elephant in the room. I’m encouraged that his walk rate continues to increase along with his XBH percentage while his strikeout rate is decreasing. To me, these are indications of continued success. Hopefully 

[Frobby]

Meanwhile, MLB just set a new record for strikeouts for the 12th year in a row.    No matter how they tweak the ball, that’s the trend that disturbs me.

[Redskins Rick]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My guess is they will try to adjust the ball to something between the 2018 and 2019 ball.  Back off a little to limit the HR records but keep it lively enough to make the game action interesting.

Like Drungo said, they dont have much skills to tweak, with MLB, its all or nothing.

[jerios55]

33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Meanwhile, MLB just set a new record for strikeouts for the 12th year in a row.    No matter how they tweak the ball, that’s the trend that disturbs me.

They mentioned this during the game yesterday, a rate of 8.8% I think.  It is a less fun version of baseball, HR or bust a solid number of at-bats. 

[DrungoHazewood]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Meanwhile, MLB just set a new record for strikeouts for the 12th year in a row.    No matter how they tweak the ball, that’s the trend that disturbs me.

That's why they're tweaking the ball.  They have no solution for the strikeouts that doesn't involve a fairly obvious change to conditions or rules that fans and players will push back against pretty heavily.  MLB's first (and 2nd and 3rd and 4th) instinct is always to do nothing, and if that doesn't work change something they can deny or say was just a clarification like the ball or the strike zone.  The Yankees would have to have a paid attendance of 345 before they'd change a real playing rule.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, jerios55 said:

They mentioned this during the game yesterday, a rate of 8.8% I think.  It is a less fun version of baseball, HR or bust a solid number of at-bats. 

It's 8.8 strikeouts per team per game, up from 5.5 in 1992.  They've taken more than six plays per game out of the hands of fielders and turned them into strikeouts in the last 25 years.  While in the same period they've basically doubled the number of homers from 0.72/team/game to 1.4.  So that's about eight PAs a game something used to happen and now nine guys watch the batter walk back to the dugout or jog around the bases.

Also, steals are down by nearly half since 1987, from .85 to .46 per game.  In '87 an average team stole 138 bases, today it's 75.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

50 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's 8.8 strikeouts per team per game, up from 5.5 in 1992.  They've taken more than six plays per game out of the hands of fielders and turned them into strikeouts in the last 25 years.  While in the same period they've basically doubled the number of homers from 0.72/team/game to 1.4.  So that's about eight PAs a game something used to happen and now nine guys watch the batter walk back to the dugout or jog around the bases.

Also, steals are down by nearly half since 1987, from .85 to .46 per game.  In '87 an average team stole 138 bases, today it's 75.

Thanks for doing the analysis to confirm what our eyes our seeing. I really miss the game, I grew up with in the 1980's up until about 1993. Launch angles and advanced analytics aren't going to go away, but MLB can get out of they way and not do things like juice the baseball.

Establishing a real consistent strikes zone is another step that could help as well. Bring on the robots-umps if that's what it will take. 

[jerios55]

58 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's 8.8 strikeouts per team per game, up from 5.5 in 1992.  They've taken more than six plays per game out of the hands of fielders and turned them into strikeouts in the last 25 years.  While in the same period they've basically doubled the number of homers from 0.72/team/game to 1.4.  So that's about eight PAs a game something used to happen and now nine guys watch the batter walk back to the dugout or jog around the bases.

Also, steals are down by nearly half since 1987, from .85 to .46 per game.  In '87 an average team stole 138 bases, today it's 75.

Units matter   Thanks.  I did remember the 8.8, so that's good, haha.

With a bit of rounding, 9 per team or 1/3 of the outs in a 9 inning game. 

[Yossarian]

Here's the solution to the inflated home runs and strikeouts problem:  Play with a larger ball - like the size of a softball.  This will restrict the flight of the ball, take a little movement and velocity off of the ball from the pitcher, and what are now foul tips will become balls hit into play.  Voila!  problem(s) solved.

[DrungoHazewood]

44 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Here's the solution to the inflated home runs and strikeouts problem:  Play with a larger ball - like the size of a softball.  This will restrict the flight of the ball, take a little movement and velocity off of the ball from the pitcher, and what are now foul tips will become balls hit into play.  Voila!  problem(s) solved.

I think you're kidding, but what if they increased the size of the ball by 1/8th of an inch and a quarter of an ounce?  And if that effect wasn't quite getting where we want, do it again the following year.  And the next if you have to.

And set minimum bat sizes phased in over a period of years.  By 2025 nobody is allowed to swing a bat that weighs less than 36 or 38 ounces, and has a minimum handle and barrel thickness half an inch bigger than today's average.