There Are Rumblings That the O's Will Not Take Rutschman

[Hank Scorpio]

14 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Can’t read all of this now. Any refutations to us not taking AR?

Cliffs notes, please.

[weams]

Fangraphs

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-4-0-the-morning-of/

 

1. Orioles – Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
Clubs still think there’s a real chance for a cut-rate option here, with Vaughn and Bleday the two leading candidates and Witt less likely. This crew keeps a tight lid on things, and may not call someone’s adviser to really get down to brass tacks until sometime late this afternoon. Even the advisers of those potential backup options don’t yet know if they’re going 1-1, or how to handicap it. Contact hasn’t been made with Rutschman’s reps for weeks, which is also to be expected to maximize leverage. We think a lot of the buzz here is being mentioned as posturing, and that the odds are high the pick is just Rutschman; it’s something like an 80% chance, but by no means a slam dunk. It’s worth noting that some of the concerns on Rutschman’s medical are more likely to be flagged by Baltimore given their specific medical staff.

[spiritof66]

12 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

How much have you watched Bobby Witt Jr play? I mean I’ve followed the kids every game since he was a freshman and there nothing that suggest that he’s not every bit as good as Rutschman and imo with him being a ss and with plus speed he’s a better all around ball player. I’m not knocking Rutschman because he to looks great but to suggest he’s head and shoulder above Witt he is ridiculous unless you can show me the red flags in Witts game that suggest otherwise. Go back a few few years and look at what Rutschman was doing when he was Witts age and what he was doing in High school. Rutschman wasn’t even in the convo when he was 18-19. I believe Witt to be just as talented or as good as Rutschman now and as he continues playing and progressing when he is Rutschman’s current age I imagine he’ll be even better than what Rutschman is currently plus he plays a position where when healthy he’s in the lineup everyday that has quite a bit of value in itself.

I can see a rationale for taking Rutschman and a rationale (slightly less convincing to me) for taking Witt. What each offers is so different that it's hard for me to project which one would help this poor excuse for a ballclub more.

Based on my limited knowledge, which has grown a lot in the last week or so but is still limited, I don't see a sound rationale for passing on both of them and taking Vaughn, Bleday or anyone else. I just don't. 

[hoosiers]

1 hour ago, jrobb21613 said:

Somebody give me Mike Elias phone number please! I need to call and talk some sense to him. 

Give yourself your number and tell yourself to calm down.

[spiritof66]

27 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

Hears, too. 

As long as it's not "BA fears we are all aboard the Adley express."

[hoosiers]

3 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I can see a rationale for taking Rutschman and a rationale (slightly less convincing to me) for taking Witt. What each offers is so different that it's hard for me to project which one would help this poor excuse for a ballclub more.

Based on my limited knowledge, which has grown a lot in the last week or so but is still limited, I don't see a sound rationale for passing on both of them and taking Vaughn, Bleday or anyone else. I just don't. 

Agree w this.  Worst team in baseball should be taking one of these two top talents with 1-1.  Don't get cute.  Work to outdraft everyone after 1-1.

[atomic]

35 minutes ago, ShaneDawg85 said:

Jeffrey Hammonds, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis (who seemed to get overlooked in most of the subsequent comments), Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, Manny Machado, Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman.  I'm not saying they all ended up being outstanding picks or what everyone hoped they would be (Hammonds, Wieters, Matusz), but they all made the show and made an impact at varying points.  There are others two you could extend the conversation to who at least got to the big leagues like Adam Loewen, Larry Bigbie, etc.  Frankly I'd argue that in terms of perceived ineptitude, people are most likely basing it off the 1998-2001 specifically period where picks just didn't work out, they had a ton of picks and they didn't work out (1999), or the pick just made no damn sense (Chris Smith), followed by the 2004-2006 period with the Wade Townsend debacle and the everlasting butt hurtness over Billy Rowell.

 

I think people don't know how other teams have fared in the 1st round.  No team does that well in the first round.  I think where the Orioles were missing were in later rounds and lack of international talent. 

[SteveA]

39 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Can’t read all of this now. Any refutations to us not taking AR?

This entire thread has been discussion on the merits of taking various players.   There has been no new rumor, at least none posted in thread, since the initial one that started the thread.   No rumor that we will take AR, none that we won't.

So if you are interested in a discussion of who we should take and who we shouldn't, or a lot of talk about our drafting history, read the entire thread.

If you are looking for a single piece of new information since the original post... don't bother reading the thread.

[atomic]

40 minutes ago, jrobb21613 said:

And he’s also a cheater! Him and the others should be stricken from all records! Just my opinion and it’s sucks because it’s the era I grew up watching and it’s been tarnished by greed. I place as much blame if not more on the owners but I do t want to hijack this thread on this subject. 

He is a first ballot hall of famer without steroids. He won 3 MVP's and 8 Golden Gloves before he started taking steroids.  Eight 8 WAR plus seasons before steroids. Ends up with over 100 WAR without Steroids but doesn't get his last 4 MVP's and doesn't break home run records. 

[LTO's]

 

[DrungoHazewood]

17 college catchers have been drafted in the top 10 picks in the June draft:

- The best are  Thurman Munson and Buster Posey, in the 40s in WAR
- After that it's Terry Kennedy, John Stearns, Matt Wieters around 20
- Mike Zunino, Kyle Schwarber, Dan Wilson, Rick Cerone, and Jason Castro are below that, some still active
- Joey Bart and Zack Collins haven't made the majors yet
- Danny Goodwin, Jeff Clement, Eric Munson, Tony Sanchez, and Robbie Wine crashed and burned
- Goodwin is the only college catcher to go 1:1
- Wieters is the only college catcher the O's have taken in the top 10 picks

57 high school shortstops have been drafted in the top 10 picks in the June draft:
- ARod, Chipper, Yount, Jeter, Sheffield
- Jay Bell, Justin Upton, Manny
- Lindor, Correa, Cuddyer, Melvin Upton
- Rick Manning, Shawon Dunston
- 15 of them never played in the majors, a handful might still be in the minors
- 13 had/have careers of 0 or fewer WAR, including Luis Montanez, Scott Moore
- Nine had careers of 1-9 WAR
- HS Shortstops at 1:1 are ARod, Chipper, Justin Upton, Correa, Dunston, Beckham, Tim Foli, Matt Bush, and Royce Lewis
- The O's have taken two HS shortstops in the top 10 picks, Junior Kennedy (1968) and Manny

I don't know that any of that is hugely indicative of a way to go, but it generally supports the idea that the college catcher has a higher floor. About 1/3 of college catchers in the top 10 picks had no MLB value, compared to 29 of 57 high school shortstops.

[HowAboutThat]

42 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

The more appropriate question is who would Gary Rajisch take.  He was the scouting director.  How much Dan Duquette influenced the draft was never really all that clear to me, but it was always Rajisch that was doing the post draft interviews and that sort of thing.

Elias to my knowledge hasn't hired a scouting director as of yet (I could definitely be wrong about that!) but it does sound like at least for his first draft he's going to be pretty heavily involved or at least more so than DD was.

I have faith in Mike’s logic, he may regret the pick later, but I’m sure he’s going to use sound reasoning in the choice. Whoever was making the decisions before, they inspired no confidence whatsoever.

[HowAboutThat]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

17 college catchers have been drafted in the top 10 picks in the June draft:

- The best are  Thurman Munson and Buster Posey, in the 40s in WAR
- After that it's Terry Kennedy, John Stearns, Matt Wieters around 20
- Mike Zunino, Kyle Schwarber, Dan Wilson, Rick Cerone, and Jason Castro are below that, some still active
- Joey Bart and Zack Collins haven't made the majors yet
- Danny Goodwin, Jeff Clement, Eric Munson, Tony Sanchez, and Robbie Wine crashed and burned
- Goodwin is the only college catcher to go 1:1
- Wieters is the only college catcher the O's have taken in the top 10 picks

57 high school shortstops have been drafted in the top 10 picks in the June draft:
- ARod, Chipper, Yount, Jeter, Sheffield
- Jay Bell, Justin Upton, Manny
- Lindor, Correa, Cuddyer, Melvin Upton
- Rick Manning, Shawon Dunston
- 15 of them never played in the majors, a handful might still be in the minors
- 13 had/have careers of 0 or fewer WAR, including Luis Montanez, Scott Moore
- Nine had careers of 1-9 WAR
- HS Shortstops at 1:1 are ARod, Chipper, Justin Upton, Correa, Dunston, Beckham, Tim Foli, Matt Bush, and Royce Lewis
- The O's have taken two HS shortstops in the top 10 picks, Junior Kennedy (1968) and Manny

I don't know that any of that is hugely indicative of a way to go, but it generally supports the idea that the college catcher has a higher floor. About 1/3 of college catchers in the top 10 picks had no MLB value, compared to 29 of 57 high school shortstops.

Thanks for this. I know it took time, and I appreciate the effort.

[LookinUp]

59 minutes ago, jrobb21613 said:

From a pure talent stand point based off how they’ve performed against the talent they’ve faced  I don’t see how one can say Rutschman is clearly better. 

I'd argue Rutschman has to be more advanced. That doesn't mean better, necessarily. He's just played more baseball and seen much better pitching.

29 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Based on my limited knowledge, which has grown a lot in the last week or so but is still limited, I don't see a sound rationale for passing on both of them and taking Vaughn, Bleday or anyone else. I just don't. 

I'm assuming this is very unlikely, but the rationale to pass on both is to save a lot more money so they can pop an expensive high schooler or two later in the draft and buy them out of their college commitments. 

[makoman]

18 minutes ago, atomic said:

I think people don't know how other teams have fared in the 1st round.  No team does that well in the first round.  I think where the Orioles were missing were in later rounds and lack of international talent. 

Yeah our main problem IMO was too many drafts where we'd only hit on 1 guy. 2006 - Britton is the only one who gave us value. 2009 - Just Givens. 2010 - Machado draft, but that was it. 2011 - Bundy and then Davies gave us no value but got us a bad few months from Parra (blech). 2012 - Gausman, and Hader got us Bud Norris (double blech).

I don't know what's normal, but it'd be nice to start hitting on like 3-5 guys a year.