There Are Rumblings That the O's Will Not Take Rutschman

[spleen1015]

Please take Rutschman. Please take Rutschman. Please take Rutschman.

I know we'll get a good player regardless, but I'll be disappointed if the O's don't take him.

[Philip]

I wonder how much Rutschman Knows about Baltimore the city, and Baltimore the team, and whether he actually wants to be here. When my grandfather was in the Navy, way way back when, he was assigned to the USS New York, and before he reported, he was expected to know everything there was to know about the city of New York and about the ship.

Has anyone ever publicly announced that he does not want to be drafted by a particular team? “If I am drafted by X team I will not sign because I don’t want to go to that city or play for that ownership.”

Is that even permissible?

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

I hear ya but I don’t think there is nothing cute or creative about Witt Jr. maybe the other guys. I get Rutschman has produced at the higher level against tougher competition but Witt has done nothing but dominate the competition  he has faced correct? Most scouts have Witt rated plus in every area I believe except his hit tool( plus speed plus glove plus arm plus power) and that was due to a concern of some swing and misses he showed in some tournament most scouts have said that’s been over blown. From a pure talent stand point based off how they’ve performed against the talent they’ve faced  I don’t see how one can say Rutschman is clearly better. Is trackman being used in highschooL or any other software that can track exit velocity launch angle bat speed etc? 

He's dominated inferior competition and what Rutchsman has done has almost been video game-like (against better competition). And my comment was to the previous point that Witt has a higher ceiling. He doesn't. At best he has the same ceiling with a much lower floor. 

[wildbillhiccup]

58 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I spot checked the Yanks.  You know that they've basically drafted one good MLB player since 2009?  Aaron Judge.  There are probably some more still in the minors, but literally most of their drafts have topped out with a guy with a couple of wins so far in their careers.  2009 they should have multiple players with 5-8 year careers by now.  But nope, it's Judge and nothing else.

...but the Yankees have the ability to restock their farm system by basically paying for prospects. We don't have that luxury. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

...but the Yankees have the ability to restock their farm system by basically paying for prospects. We don't have that luxury. 

How so?  Do you mean buying bad contracts that have young talent attached?

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

...but the Yankees have the ability to restock their farm system by basically paying for prospects. We don't have that luxury. 

Sure. But the point was determining how many hits an average draft has. For the Yanks it's almost none. And I doubt they're throwing drafts. They're trying.

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, makoman said:

 

Fair enough.

Looking at it another way, last year it looks like there were about 228 players who amassed 2.0 bWAR or more. 2012 had 227 such players so that # looks reasonable enough. So about 7.5 per team. Since all those players were acquired over more than an 8 year period then perhaps you should be thrilled if you're getting 1 starting level type player per draft. 

I have done some analyses of the draft in the past that are relevant here.    For example, here’s one I did after the 2016 season that concluded the Red Sox had drafted by far the most talent of any AL East team during the 21st century to date:   

If you scroll around in that thread I listed every player drafted by the AL East teams who had exceeded 1.0 rWAR for their career as of the end of 2016.

At that point, each team had drafted between 16 and 29 players who had accumulated more than 1.0 WAR, during the whole period 2000-2016.    Of course, I’m sure some other players drafted in that period have exceeded 1.0 rWAR by now, and others will in the future.   

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How so?  Do you mean buying bad contracts that have young talent attached?

Or trading a guy for prospects, and then signing that guy again anyway. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

Or trading a guy for prospects, and then signing that guy again anyway. 

Like the O's did?

[interloper]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Like the O's did?

Who do you mean? A washed up Miguel Tejada comes to mind but he's no Chapman. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

Who do you mean? A washed up Miguel Tejada comes to mind but he's no Chapman. 

Ponson of course.

[makoman]

Just now, interloper said:

Who do you mean? A washed up Miguel Tejada comes to mind but he's no Chapman. 

Ponson?

[DrungoHazewood]

10 minutes ago, Philip said:

I wonder how much Rutschman Knows about Baltimore the city, and Baltimore the team, and whether he actually wants to be here. When my grandfather was in the Navy, way way back when, he was assigned to the USS New York, and before he reported, he was expected to know everything there was to know about the city of New York and about the ship.

Has anyone ever publicly announced that he does not want to be drafted by a particular team? “If I am drafted by X team I will not sign because I don’t want to go to that city or play for that ownership.”

Is that even permissible?

All the draft does is assign your major league rights to a team for a set period of time. You don't have to sign a contract with anyone. Rutschman could sign with the Saint Paul Saints or the Fukuoka Hawks if he wants to. Or go work for Home Depot.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Ponson of course.

Again, he's not the premium talent that Chapman is. When you can trade guys in their walk year knowing full well you're able to beat 25 other teams at the free agency table for that same player, it's definitely an advantage.

[weams]

2 hours ago, hoosiers said:

Agree w this.  Worst team in baseball should be taking one of these two top talents with 1-1.  Don't get cute.  Work to outdraft everyone after 1-1.

It's not just out picking folks. It's having the funds to fulfill a plan. So - I'll learn things from watching this. And no one's opinion of the draft will be reality for several years. Bad draft and draft strategies become good ones. Good one become awful.