Life choices and other whatnot

[atomic]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

And if you combine probabilities for rounds 2-11 you have a 60-70 percent chance of drafting a pretty good player.

But what does that have to do with my point?  About the individual player taken?  I am not sure why you keep going back to the team. My point has nothing to do with the team drafting it has to do with the player. 

[weams]

18 minutes ago, atomic said:

How is it absurd to say that a guy who has 11 percent chance of making it to pro ball go to college instead of high school?  The smart move is to go to college and if you are good you will be drafted higher in 3 years. If you are bad you go on with your career with a degree from a good university. 

Your opinion. A MLB career is such a miniscule dream. But then, making money off a college degree is pretty tough too. 

[eddie83]

McCullers was pick 41. 6.3 WAR. Round 1s, only player picked after in 1s higher WAR Matt Olson 8.4 WAR, pick 47.

Only player higher in 2nd Round, Alex Wood pick 85. 11.6 WAR.  

 

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, AceKing said:

So are you knocking how the Astros built their franchise?

He's a talking point machine who never tells the full story. Appel was the entire industry's consensus number 1. But for argument's sake, sure that's a miss. The Brady Aiken situation was bizarre but he always neglects to mention that Aiken not signing turned into Elias taking Bregman who is already one of the best players in baseball. Oh, and they got Kyle Tucker that same year who's a top 10 prospect. And in between those "misses" he drafted Correa who's by far the best player taken in that first round and got Lance McCullers at 41.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

He's a talking point machine who never tells the full story. Appel was the entire industry's consensus number 1. But for argument's sake, sure that's a miss. The Brady Aiken situation was bizarre but he always neglects to mention that Aiken not signing turned into Elias taking Bregman who is already one of the best players in baseball. Oh, and they got Kyle Tucker that same year who's a top 10 prospect. And in between those "misses" he drafted Correa who's by far the best player taken in that first round and got Lance McCullers at 41.

They did cut the losses on Appel. And the final results on the trade up to Osuna is of course quite controversial. How much impact Elias had in any of this is not even known. 

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, atomic said:

How is it absurd to say that a guy who has 11 percent chance of making it to pro ball go to college instead of high school?  The smart move is to go to college and if you are good you will be drafted higher in 3 years. If you are bad you go on with your career with a degree from a good university. 

Because college costs about $100-200K.  He's going to sign for a couple $million.  If he misses out on college now he can always go back and get his degree.  If he hits .206 or gets hurt at Auburn he probably gets his degree but he never plays professionally and he's out several $million.  This is simple math.  Lots of things can happen in the next 2-4 years that would keep him from that big check he's going to get momentarily.

Most people save their whole careers to have $2M in a 401k.  Or half that.  Or less.  He's going to get this in one lump sum by deferring college.

[DrungoHazewood]

16 minutes ago, atomic said:

Might not be able to get into a top school if it weren't for baseball.  I wonder what percentage of ball players who are in this situation go back and get a college degree after baseball.   I also wonder what percentage of room and board plus tuition a baseball scholarship for a top player covers. 

In 99% of all fields nobody cares where you went to college.  The practical difference between a random degree from Auburn and a degree from UMBC is negligible.

[LookinUp]

It is a fact that it's absurd that we allow @atomic to sidetrack a thread. It's like talking to a wall. Not worth the effort. His opinion will never change, no matter how often it's decimated in these threads. 

Back to Gunnar, glad as hell we got him.

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In 99% of all fields nobody cares where you went to college.  The practical difference between a random degree from Auburn and a degree from UMBC is negligible.

Only if you consider the FACT that UMBC beat Virginia in the NCAA tourney and Auburn lost to Virginia in the NCAA tournament as a negligible difference. I do not.

[DrungoHazewood]

18 minutes ago, atomic said:

But what does that have to do with my point?  About the individual player taken?  I am not sure why you keep going back to the team. My point has nothing to do with the team drafting it has to do with the player. 

Maybe we're getting sidetracked because we don't understand why anyone would turn town $2M today so they can accept $40k a year in scholarships, along with a pretty good chance the $2M is never on the table again.

[Ohfan67]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

It is a fact that it's absurd that we allow @atomic to sidetrack a thread. It's like talking to a wall. Not worth the effort. His opinion will never change, no matter how often it's decimated in these threads. 

Back to Gunnar, glad as hell we got him.

I'm shocked that these very smart people are repeatedly engaging him. I have him on ignore, but unfortunately he gets quoted a lot. 

[TheOtherRipken]

36 minutes ago, atomic said:

Lol people down voting facts. 

I haven’t seen you post a single irrefutable fact. Statistics on success of pick position are not facts just statistics, and pretty arbitrary ones with a weak sample size. Honestly they don’t even say much about probability and if they did what’s the probability of getting hurt in college? Improving on the #42 draft position? Getting more than $2.3 million by waiting?

If we are just throwing out statistics wouldn’t your statistics support that signing with the O’s is a lottery ticket with infinitely better odds than the actual lottery (+ $2.3 mil to start + minor league salary, benefits, and likely paid for college when he wants to go).

Just trying to understand your argument, and the “facts” behind it.

[atomic]

19 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Because college costs about $100-200K.  He's going to sign for a couple $million.  If he misses out on college now he can always go back and get his degree.  If he hits .206 or gets hurt at Auburn he probably gets his degree but he never plays professionally and he's out several $million.  This is simple math.  Lots of things can happen in the next 2-4 years that would keep him from that big check he's going to get momentarily.

Most people save their whole careers to have $2M in a 401k.  Or half that.  Or less.  He's going to get this in one lump sum by deferring college.

I am not sure what a 401k amount has to do with anything. People pay for other things while working. Houses, Cars, Kid's education, vacations.  He also will pay high taxes on his bonus and I believe an agent gets a cut.  

[Yardball85]

2 minutes ago, TheOtherRipken said:

I haven’t seen you post a single irrefutable fact. Statistics on success of pick position are not facts just statistics, and pretty arbitrary ones with a weak sample size. Honestly they don’t even say much about probability and if they did what’s the probability of getting hurt in college? Improving on the #42 draft position? Getting more than $2.3 million by waiting?

If we are just throwing out statistics wouldn’t your statistics support that signing with the O’s is a lottery ticket with infinitely better odds than the actual lottery (+ $2.3 mil to start + minor league salary, benefits, and likely paid for college when he wants to go).

Just trying to understand your argument, and the “facts” behind it.

I have never seen a poster be so wrong all the time as atomic is, and refuse to admit it.

Sad that he has sidetracked a great thread about a hopefully great draft pick.  Where do you think Gunnar starts?  Aberdeen? Delmarva?  ETA around 2022-23?

[atomic]

16 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Maybe we're getting sidetracked because we don't understand why anyone would turn town $2M today so they can accept $40k a year in scholarships, along with a pretty good chance the $2M is never on the table again.

Scholarship is tax free.  Bonus will be taxed heavily and agent gets their cut. I guess I am an education first.  Most 18 year old''s will blow whatever money they get.  Sure some save the money but those are probably the same people that are going to college. If you spend you bonus and you are out of baseball at 23 it is going to be hard to beat the guy who went to college. These days the salaries between going to College and not are tremendous.