MLBTR's take on O's trades

[wildcard]

The O's would trade any of these four.  The question is does any contending team think they can help them in the pennant race and are they willing to pay Elias' price in prospects or salary relief?

Quote

17. Mychal Givens, Orioles Call it a hunch, but the O’s seem well-positioned to move on Givens. He’s in his first year of arbitration with two more to go, so there’s no rush. And outwardly, the results make this an awkward time, as he has surrendered a home run-driven 4.76 ERA. But Givens has also racked up 20 strikeouts in his last 11 1/3 innings. He fits any budget and seems an obvious candidate to function in late innings for a contender. With the Orioles as far from contention as possible, I’m betting they’ll find a deal for their most talented relief pitcher. 

Seems like contender are likely to make low offers for Givens and Elias will hold out for who he think are the prospects that match Givens value..  I think he stays rather then take a low ball offer.

Quote

24. Andrew Cashner, Orioles : Cashner is on a legitimately impressive run at the moment. Over his past five starts, he has allowed just five earned runs on 19 base hits and four walks over 32 frames. There are reasons for hesitation, too: he has only 18 strikeouts in that span, owes his 3.83 season ERA in part to a .256 BABIP, and stands out as a Statcast regression candidate (.288 wOBA-against vs. .340 xwOBA-against).  Cashner is  earning $8MM this year and come with 2020 options. Cashner’s is for $10MM.

His salary and bonuses are high for two months on service.   Someone may want him for next year as well which will make more sense.    He is the 6th starter on MLBTR's list.   I think Elias goes for salary relief over the O's paying a huge amount to get better prospects..   The prospect return is probably minimal. But I think he does get traded.

Quote

35. Trey Mancini, OF/1B, Orioles): Mancini would be higher if he were a lock to be moved, but it’ll be tough for rookie GM Mike Elias to step in and immediately trade the new face of the franchise when he’s still controlled through 2022. Add in the fact that corner bats have received generally underwhelming returns on the trade market in recent seasons, and the task is even taller. Perhaps that remaining control would allow Elias & Co. to coax an offer that handily tops recent packages for corner outfielders and first basemen, but in a world where C.J. Cron was waived after a 30-homer season, it’s tough to see Mancini fetching a godfather offer — strong as his bat may be. The O’s are reportedly “open to anything” on Mancini, though, so a deal can’t be totally ruled out.

Mancini is worth a lot to the O's.  I don't see anyone matching Elias' asking price   I think he stays.  I don't think the face of the franchise means a thing in Elias' trade evaluation.

 

Quote

56. TJonathan Villar (Orioles), INF : A reasonably youthful middle infielders who come with affordable control for 2020. He has had his share of ups and downs over the years, but has turned in league-average hitting in extended action this year.

I question whether any team feels his defense would be an improvement.   He can run, steal and has some power.  His 1.6m salary on July 31st should not be a problem.   I will be surprised if anyone wants him.  I think he stays and is non tendered this fall rather than pay him 7m in arbitration.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/top-60-trade-candidates-at-the-all-star-break.html

[jabba72]

I think the prospect return is minimal at best for all 4, so I wouldn't move them unless the goal is to cement the #1 pick. Losing Cashner would hurt the most out of all of them IMO. So if he goes it likely will increase the chances the O's finish last. 

[Lucky_13]

I actually think Elias would eat money to move Cashner. They were willing to eat his contract in spring training to move him when he had no value. He's their best chance to get back okay prospects too. 

I think someone pays a decent price for Givens too. Relief pitchers always go at the deadline and he'd be perfect for a team thats set a closer and wants to fortify middle relief.

[jabba72]

3 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

I actually think Elias would eat money to move Cashner. They were willing to eat his contract in spring training to move him when he had no value. He's their best chance to get back okay prospects too. 

I think someone pays a decent price for Givens too. Relief pitchers always go at the deadline and he'd be perfect for a team thats set a closer and wants to fortify middle relief.

Would definitely be open to moving Givens for a legit prospect, but I question his value right now. Cashner's value has improved since the offseason when he was probably seen as worthless. Still, his loss would be huge for the rotation and if they aren't getting back legit talent. I see no need to trade him. 

[mdbdotcom]

Mancini + Cashner + cash to the Indians could bring back a nice prospect. The Indians are in the 2nd WC spot and only 1.5 games behind the Rays for the top spot. They've been playing a lot better, pulling within 6.5 games of the Twins, but could use a starting pitcher and right-handed hitter. They don't have any money, so they would need the O's to pay most of Cashner's salary. They have some well-regarded middle infielders at the lower levels of their farm system. Could be a fit.

[wildcard]

49 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

I actually think Elias would eat money to move Cashner. They were willing to eat his contract in spring training to move him when he had no value. He's their best chance to get back okay prospects too. 

I think someone pays a decent price for Givens too. Relief pitchers always go at the deadline and he'd be perfect for a team thats set a closer and wants to fortify middle relief.

I agree that the O's will eat money to trade Cashner.  I just don't think they will eat enough to get a good prospect in return.  Hope I am wrong.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I agree that the O's will eat money to trade Cashner.  I just don't think they will eat enough to get a good prospect in return.  Hope I am wrong.

No point in trading him unless you are getting a potentially useful player in return.   We’ll see what happens.    

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No point in trading him unless you are getting a potentially useful player in return.   We’ll see what happens.    

Unless the powers that be want some more salary relief.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Unless the powers that be want some more salary relief.

I figured someone would say that.   Losing Cashner is going to have a pretty bad domino effect on our pitching staff.   Even though we’ll stink either way, it's going to be super-brutal without Cashner, and I wouldn’t trade him without getting something tangible you can sell to the fans.     “Salary relief” won’t do it.  

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No point in trading him unless you are getting a potentially useful player in return.   We’ll see what happens.    

I am sure all that they are doing with signing young players, improving scouting, player development and analytics cost money.   Elias will find useful ways to use  it.   Its all about the future.   They, no doubt, would like to get one or more good players back but the salary relief is important too.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I figured someone would say that.   Losing Cashner is going to have a pretty bad domino effect on our pitching staff.   Even though we’ll stink either way, it's going to be super-brutal without Cashner, and I wouldn’t trade him without getting something tangible you can sell to the fans.     “Salary relief” won’t do it.  

They don't care about this season's losses.   Cashner or no Cashner they are likely to lose.    And they probably are not spending the 10-13m to pick up his option for next year.   Keeping him and letting him walk after the season sounds like the worst case scenario.

[theocean]

3 hours ago, jabba72 said:

I think the prospect return is minimal at best for all 4, so I wouldn't move them unless the goal is to cement the #1 pick. Losing Cashner would hurt the most out of all of them IMO. So if he goes it likely will increase the chances the O's finish last. 

I think Cashner could actually bring back something pretty good. He's got some value - and he's a good alternative to Stroman/Bumgarner/Wheeler who are going to cost a pretty penny. I don't really understand the "salary relief" thing - a half season of Cashner really isn't expensive whatsoever for a veteran starting pitcher. There will be a market for him.

Givens has been pretty good recently - the O's are in good position to make a trade there. I think most Front Offices will look past his bad start. The only downside is there's going to be a lot of relief pitching on the trading block to compete with.

Mancini is tricky. The article mentions CJ Cron and 1B-types not being valued much - but there are some matches for a trade out there. Mancini is a pretty good fit for the Rays, Ji-Man Choi isn't exactly the most dynamic player and Mancini would be a cost-effective option for them. Whereas I could see Elias trading Cashner and Givens for the best offer at the deadline, I could see him only moving Mancini if the return is right. There's no rush to make a trade here.

Villar - I don't know. I think he sticks around, can't see him being in high demand. We'll see.

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I figured someone would say that.   Losing Cashner is going to have a pretty bad domino effect on our pitching staff.   Even though we’ll stink either way, it's going to be super-brutal without Cashner, and I wouldn’t trade him without getting something tangible you can sell to the fans.     “Salary relief” won’t do it.  

You wouldn't.

That doesn't mean others feel that way.

We don't know where they want payroll to be, we know they added as little as possible and were looking to dump Cashner during the offseason.

It's a possibility that they will be happy to be shed of Cashner's contract.

[theocean]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You wouldn't.

That doesn't mean others feel that way.

We don't know where they want payroll to be, we know they added as little as possible and were looking to dump Cashner during the offseason.

It's a possibility that they will be happy to be shed of Cashner's contract.

They're done with his contract after this season if they want, right? I can't really see ownership just wanting to dump Cashner over his August/September paychecks. Not really that much money in the grand scheme of things.

I also think Cashner will be in demand and they'll be able to find someone to take the contract as-is anyway. He's not particularly expensive. Hell, the team trading for him might be interested in exercising his option next year. $10M for a 5th starter ain't bad at all.

 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, theocean said:

They're done with his contract after this season if they want, right? I can't really see ownership just wanting to dump Cashner over his August/September paychecks. Not really that much money in the grand scheme of things.

I also think Cashner will be in demand and they'll be able to find someone to take the contract as-is anyway. He's not particularly expensive. Hell, the team trading for him might be interested in exercising his option next year. $10M for a 5th starter ain't bad at all.

 

They dumped Brach and bundled O'Day with Gausman.

Also, according to Wildcard they haven't paid Cashner his signing bonus yet and he's due to cash in on some of his incentives.  It's more than just a couple million we are talking about.

Maybe they are OK with paying Cashner, or sending money with him to get back better prospects.  Maybe not, we don't know.