Where would we be without John Means?

[panick]

16 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Let’s get one thing straight buddy— I didn’t say anything about drafting a pitcher at #1 either. What in the world are you on about?

Your question makes no sense.

You're the one that mentioned that Means has more value than a pick that might turn into a #3-#5 starter, BUDDY. So what position were you talking about for the #1 pick?

[Bubble Buddy]

10 hours ago, Gurgi said:

Means is screwing us out of the number one pick.  And he likely will not be good next season.  Look at his minor league stats....there is nothing to give you any clue he would be this good.  None of his minor league seasons are this good.  Likely he reverts to norm and is another Dave Johnson or Milaki.   One and done.  

Velocity has increased. Change Up has become a weapon. He's refined his breaking pitches to be effective. Have you actually watched? 

He's an outlier for making these types of improvements later in his career, but it all seems legit enough for him to be at least a 5. And that's not nothing. 

[Enjoy Terror]

1 hour ago, panick said:

Your question makes no sense.

You're the one that mentioned that Means has more value than a pick that might turn into a #3-#5 starter, BUDDY. So what position were you talking about for the #1 pick?

That second part is true!

[atomic]

19 hours ago, Philip said:

I agree. I keep thinking of Joe Charbenneau and Mark Fidrych. An Indian and a tiger, each one year standouts on perennially bad teamsAn Indian and a tiger, each one year standouts on perennially bad teams. I really hope John continues his upward trajectory, but he’s got to prove it.. I really hope John continues his upward trajectory, but he’s got to prove it.

Fidrych was overworked into shoulder issues.  If he stayed healthy he would have continued to be a star player.  RIP.  

Charbenneau injured his back and was kind of a nut job.  He had to have back surgery during his second season and was never the same.

Injuries can happen to any players.  If you are going to worry about injuries in rookies you will never be happy with anyone. 

 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Bubble Buddy said:

Velocity has increased. Change Up has become a weapon. He's refined his breaking pitches to be effective. Have you actually watched? 

He's an outlier for making these types of improvements later in his career, but it all seems legit enough for him to be at least a 5. And that's not nothing. 

I’m more or less a believer.   I got nervous when he started out shaky after the all star break, as it often seems that Cinderella’s carriage turns into a pumpkin around that time.   But he pulled it back together.   And, as noted, he hasn’t rested on his laurels, but has continued to work on his breaking stuff.   I can’t predict that he’ll be this good every year, but I think there’s a reasonable chance that he’ll be a reliable rotation piece for the foreseeable future.    Which would be a welcome break after seeing so many of our higher-rated pitching prospects disappoint.   

[Philip]

26 minutes ago, atomic said:

Fidrych was overworked into shoulder issues.  If he stayed healthy he would have continued to be a star player.  RIP.  

Charbenneau injured his back and was kind of a nut job.  He had to have back surgery during his second season and was never the same.

Injuries can happen to any players.  If you are going to worry about injuries in rookies you will never be happy with anyone. 

 

Yes that is correct, I mention those guys, because they’re the ones who always come to mind as one year flameouts, But I’m sure there are countless guys who had a wonderfully hopeful first year and then vanished, for whatever reason.

I’m sure the statistics are available for how many rookie seasons of, say, 4WAR, were never Followed with any meaningful success.

I have no way of knowing whether means his success is sustainable, (although I’m sure we will hear from those who do know) but I sure hope so: he could end up being that very rare gem.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Fidrych was overworked into shoulder issues.  If he stayed healthy he would have continued to be a star player.  RIP.  

Fidrych was very unlikely to have a long, successful career.  First, he was probably hurt because he threw 24 complete games as a 21-year-old rookie.  That's just what baseball did in 1976.  They were not going to pull him at 100 pitches.  And the attrition rate on very young pitchers throwing a ton of innings has always been high.

But also he was 75th of 88 qualifiers that year in strikeouts per nine.  He struck out 97 batters in 250 innings.  That's very hard to sustain.  Look at the NL leader in complete games that year, Randy Jones. Was 22-14 but struck out just 93 batters in 315 innings.  He was just 26 but only had one more season with an ERA better than average.  

Anyway, the combination of a ton of work at an early age and 3 K/9 throws up huge red flags.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Fidrych was very unlikely to have a long, successful career.  First, he was probably hurt because he threw 24 complete games as a 21-year-old rookie.  That's just what baseball did in 1976.  They were not going to pull him at 100 pitches.  And the attrition rate on very young pitchers throwing a ton of innings has always been high.

But also he was 75th of 88 qualifiers that year in strikeouts per nine.  He struck out 97 batters in 250 innings.  That's very hard to sustain.  Look at the NL leader in complete games that year, Randy Jones. Was 22-14 but struck out just 93 batters in 315 innings.  He was just 26 but only had one more season with an ERA better than average.  

Anyway, the combination of a ton of work at an early age and 3 K/9 throws up huge red flags.

Are you old enough to have seen him pitch?   Before his injury, the guy could throw pitches just at the knees or slightly below with late bite at will.    Nobody squared him up.   His control was absolutely phenomenal.   I wasn’t aware of his low strikeout rates until you mentioned it, but in my opinion there was absolutely nothing fluky about the results he attained for 1.5 seasons.   

His demise came at a game in Baltimore that I attended.  I even got interviewed about Fidrych before the game by a roving TV reporter from WJZ.    Sell out crowd on July 4 there to see Fidrych pitch.    He had a four-hit shutout going through 5 and suddenly the wheels came off the cart in the 6th and he allowed 6 runs before they pulled him, and he was never the same again.    Very sad.    Hands down the most entertaining pitcher I ever saw on the mound.   

[DrungoHazewood]

56 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m sure the statistics are available for how many rookie seasons of, say, 4WAR, were never Followed with any meaningful success.

From WWII through 2010 there were 56 pitchers who (at least according to bb-ref) were rookies with at least 4.0 rWAR.  The median career value of those 56 pitchers is 21.7 rWAR.  Which means the typical pitcher with 4+ rWAR as a rookie ends up with a value of about 17 wins afterwards.  I would be thrilled if Means had a career worth 21 wins.

But a caveat... 4+ wins means that Means is at the bottom of the list.  We're grouping him in with 6, 7, 8-win rookies.  We would probably be better served with pitchers who had 3-5 rWAR as rookies.  There were 97 such pitchers from 1945-2010.  The median career rWAR for those pitchers is 12 wins, or about eight after their rookie year. 

The typical pitcher who has a 3-5 win rookie year is in the ballpark of Jeremy Guthrie, Joe Blanton, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Dennis Lamp, and Rodrigo Lopez.  The very high end is Fergie Jenkins, Justin Verlander and Don Sutton.  The low end is the dozen or so players whose entire post-rookie careers were worth the same or less than their rookie year, like Ron Romanick, Rick Ankiel, Gustavo Chacin, Jerry Walker, and Marcelino Lopez.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Are you old enough to have seen him pitch?   Before his injury, the guy could throw pitches just at the knees or slightly below with late bite at will.    Nobody squared him up.   His control was absolutely phenomenal.   I wasn’t aware of his low strikeout rates until you mentioned it, but in my opinion there was absolutely nothing fluky about the results he attained for 1.5 seasons.   

His demise came at a game in Baltimore that I attended.  I even got interviewed about Fidrych before the game by a roving TV reporter from WJZ.    Sell out crowd on July 4 there to see Fidrych pitch.    He had a four-hit shutout going through 5 and suddenly the wheels came off the cart in the 6th and he allowed 6 runs before they pulled him, and he was never the same again.    Very sad.    Hands down the most entertaining pitcher I ever saw on the mound.   

I was five, so no.  But we know how extreme groundball pitchers with low K rates walk a very fine line between being good and being out of the league.  Brad Bergesen.  Zach Britton as a starter.  The Yanks had Chien-Ming Wang, then he hurt something running the bases and had a 5+ ERA the rest of his career.  There are very, very few pitchers who can be long-term successes in modern baseball with three K/9.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I was five, so no.  But we know how extreme groundball pitchers with low K rates walk a very fine line between being good and being out of the league.  Brad Bergesen.  Zach Britton as a starter.  The Yanks had Chien-Ming Wang, then he hurt something running the bases and had a 5+ ERA the rest of his career.  There are very, very few pitchers who can be long-term successes in modern baseball with three K/9.

Depends in part on what you mean by “modern.”   In Fidrych’s two good seasons the average K/9 was 4.7 and 5.0, respectively.   He was at 3.5 and 4.7 in those years.    

I can’t really argue with the point that extreme GB pitchers walk a fine line.   I’m just saying that there’s no doubt in my mind that Fidrych’s injury is what caused him to no longer be effective.   I’m tempted to say the same about Bergesen, but honestly, Fidrych was way, way better and I’m less confident in how Bergy would have done if he hadn’t hurt his shoulder.

In any event, neither of those guys were much like Means.     

[Philip]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

From WWII through 2010 there were 56 pitchers who (at least according to bb-ref) were rookies with at least 4.0 rWAR.  The median career value of those 56 pitchers is 21.7 rWAR.  Which means the typical pitcher with 4+ rWAR as a rookie ends up with a value of about 17 wins afterwards.  I would be thrilled if Means had a career worth 21 wins.

But a caveat... 4+ wins means that Means is at the bottom of the list.  We're grouping him in with 6, 7, 8-win rookies.  We would probably be better served with pitchers who had 3-5 rWAR as rookies.  There were 97 such pitchers from 1945-2010.  The median career rWAR for those pitchers is 12 wins, or about eight after their rookie year. 

The typical pitcher who has a 3-5 win rookie year is in the ballpark of Jeremy Guthrie, Joe Blanton, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Dennis Lamp, and Rodrigo Lopez.  The very high end is Fergie Jenkins, Justin Verlander and Don Sutton.  The low end is the dozen or so players whose entire post-rookie careers were worth the same or less than their rookie year, like Ron Romanick, Rick Ankiel, Gustavo Chacin, Jerry Walker, and Marcelino Lopez.

That is excellent research, done very quickly. I applaud you, and I thank you. This is very interesting. Fergie Jenkins, by the way, was one of my boyhood heroes. I was beside myself with 12-year-old rage when he did not win the Cy Young in 1974.