MLBTR projected O's arbitration salaries

[weams]

2 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I don't think Villar will get non-tendered, but I can't see Elias carrying Villar on the opening day roster at that salary. 

You can't tender at 10.5.  Sorry. You can't. Not for this team.

[theocean]

1 minute ago, weams said:

You can't tender at 10.5.  Sorry. You can't. Not for this team.

And then they'll lose even more fans if they non-tender a 4 WAR player off a 20/20 season. Can't expect fans to want to pay money to watch a team that doesn't even want to pay itself.

[Aristotelian]

I saw $9M for Villar not too long ago. Are we sure this article is accurate?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

I saw $9M for Villar not too long ago. Are we sure this article is accurate?

No.

[weams]

Quote

The Astros are on pace to rake in an estimated $99 million in operating income (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) this season. That is nearly as much as the estimated operating income of the previous six World Series championship teams — combined.

...

Yet the Astros are 43-86, worst in the majors. Of the 270 Major League Baseball teams who have taken the field since 2005, none have finished with a worse winning percentage than Houston’s.

They have become so profitable thanks to slashed payroll expenses and soaring television revenues.

....

Crane has gutted the team of its most expensive players while building up the farm system. Over the course of this season, the team will pay its players an estimated $21 million in salary and bonuses. That is down $56 million from 2011, when Crane bought the team.

The Astros opened this season with a league-low $26 million active payroll and have since cut it to under $13 million, according to the Houston Chronicle. Houston traded or released four of its five players making over $1 million.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2013/08/26/2013-houston-astros-baseballs-worst-team-is-most-profitable-in-history/#5e9e4ef434c0

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I saw $9M for Villar not too long ago. Are we sure this article is accurate?

Their estimates are often wrong by a significant degree.    I think the Villar estimate is way wrong.   

[DirtyBird]

47 minutes ago, theocean said:

And then they'll lose even more fans if they non-tender a 4 WAR player off a 20/20 season. Can't expect fans to want to pay money to watch a team that doesn't even want to pay itself.

No

[Can_of_corn]

55 minutes ago, theocean said:

And then they'll lose even more fans if they non-tender a 4 WAR player off a 20/20 season. Can't expect fans to want to pay money to watch a team that doesn't even want to pay itself.

Most of the fans that understand WAR understand why they would non-tender him.  The other fans think Mancini was the O's best player this season.

[GuidoSarducci]

1 hour ago, weams said:

You are correct sir.  He won't get an AAV of 7.5

Do you have any comparable for Villar?  He should be rated about 2.5 - 3 WAR which means even a deal at $10m/year would be cheap.

[Hallas]

Wins are fairly expensive.  8 million/FA win this year.  It's hard to imagine a world where a non-injured Villar isn't worth at least 6 WAR over the next 3 years.  Given that, he's a pretty safe bet to provide a lot of surplus value at 3/30 even assuming no increase in cost/win.

[weams]

4 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Do you have any comparable for Villar?  He should be rated about 2.5 - 3 WAR which means even a deal at $10m/year would be cheap.

Bobby Grich, Todd Zeile, Kolten Wong.  

Any of that sound right? I don't know. I guess I must seriously devalue him in my head. 

[GuidoSarducci]

19 minutes ago, weams said:

Bobby Grich, Todd Zeile, Kolten Wong.  

Any of that sound right? I don't know. I guess I must seriously devalue him in my head. 

Kolton Wong is ballpark.  Those other two guys were like 20 years ago.

It looks like St Louis got a discount by buying out arb years for Wong.  Next offseason he's going to get a significant raise from someone if he doesn't tank next year

Closest I could find is Lemahieu at 2/$24m.  That should be a ceiling for Villar.  At least the time of the signing, Villar woulld have a claim to more power and baserunning speed, but lower average and OBP.  And nowhere near the defense.   

Edited October 10, 2019 by GuidoSarducci

[weams]

16 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Kolton Wong is ballpark.  Those other two guys were like 20 years ago.

It looks like St Louis got a discount by buying out arb years for Wong.  Next offseason he's going to get a significant raise from someone if he doesn't tank next year

Closest I could find is Lemahieu at 2/$24m.  That should be a ceiling for Villar.  At least the time of the signing, Villar woulld have a claim to more power and baserunning speed, but lower average and OBP.  And nowhere near the defense.   

In my mind, he is like a 20 year ago player. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, weams said:

In my mind, he is like a 20 year ago player. 

Except more dongs because of the ball.

[weams]

39 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Except more dongs because of the ball.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mearepa01.shtml