Projected Orioles 2020 Opening Day Payroll (ODP)

[sportsfan8703]

38 minutes ago, weams said:

I think all this is moot because Villar will never get to the Arb table with the Orioles. It will be just like Jim Johnson. 

Yeah, I think Villar is tendered, and the other club handles the negotiations. 

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, weams said:

I assume that GMs in modern baseball have the same tools available that Dierkes does and use them to do their evaluations. I guess there are still a few dinosaurs that pay any attention to press.media. 

I agree that the GM have the same tools as Dierkes and they will probably come up with the same numbers.  But that is not the whole story.

Because of the juiced ball the  formula that was used in previous years is invalid for 2019.   The juiced ball made balls that would have been caught on the warning track  homers in 2019.   

If the MLB de-juices the ball in 2020 does that mean salaries should go down?

 

[weams]

28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree that the GM have the same tools as Dierkes and they will probably come up with the same numbers.  But that is not the whole story.

Because of the juiced ball the  formula that was used in previous years is invalid for 2019.   The juiced ball made balls that would have been caught on the warning track  homers in 2019.   

If the MLB de-juices the ball in 2020 does that mean salaries should go down?

 

Of course not. THis is a legal process, collectively bargained. Whimsy has no place in ti. It's a math problem. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, weams said:

Of course not. THis is a legal process, collectively bargained. Whimsy has no place in ti. It's a math problem. 

You actually think that a the clubs are not going to have the juiced ball as a part to their presentation  to the arbitrator is the case of a hitter?

[weams]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You actually think that a the clubs are not going to have the juiced ball as a part to their presentation  to the arbitrator is the case of a hitter?

I think that is  not even a possibility.  The baseball run environment will be discussed as are all analytics. Most of the judicial factors are the standard ones. Even pitcher wins and batting average. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, weams said:

Dierkes has been wrong before, but he is usually an industry accepted touchstone. I don't like it always, but he is.  This isn't a blog saying this.  

Two years ago he projected $6.8 mm for Gausman.    I said that was too high.    Gausman settled at $5.6 mm.    He’s not wrong every time, and he’s usually pretty on target, but he’s wrong here, IMO.    Villar might do better than the $8.8 mm I projected, but I’ll bet my guess is significantly closer than his.    

[weams]

Just now, Frobby said:

Two years ago he projected $6.8 mm for Gausman.    I said that was too high.    Gausman settled at $5.6 mm.    He’s not wrong every time, and he’s usually pretty on target, but he’s wrong here, IMO.    Villar might do better than the $8.8 mm I projected, but I’ll bet my guess is significantly closer than theirs.    

Might Gausman have won if he played? I personally don't think he would have. I do not think those numbers are based on settling, only trial. 

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Two years ago he projected $6.8 mm for Gausman.    I said that was too high.    Gausman settled at $5.6 mm.    He’s not wrong every time, and he’s usually pretty on target, but he’s wrong here, IMO.    Villar might do better than the $8.8 mm I projected, but I’ll bet my guess is significantly closer than theirs.    

I bet I will never know how clever you truly are on this one. Because I believe that Villar will settle with whatever club trades of his career year. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Might Gausman have won if he played? I personally don't think he would have. I do not think those numbers are based on settling, only trial. 

90% of the cases settle.    Dierkes makes these projections before the bid and the ask are known, so I don’t see how he can be projecting what will happen at trial.    

[weams]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

90% of the cases settle.    Dierkes makes these projections before the bid and the ask are known, so I don’t see how he can be projecting what will happen at trial.    

Well. True that. 

[jerios55]

An interesting thought from the guaranteed salary that Chris Davis holds.  If we cut him, we all know it's a sunk cost.  But opening up another roster spot would mean another 572k player, adding to the budget (not the payroll exactly, but overall outlay of resources). 

Crazy that they could trade Mancini, Givens, Bundy, Villar and be about 47mill and 37mill (78.7%) be from 2 players that have 0 to negative value. 

[AZRon]

Updated the roster projection for all transactions through 12/2/2020.
See opening post

Projected 2020 Opening Day Payroll (ODP) is now $66M. Last year's ODP was $82.12.

As to 2019 full season player compensation, according to the linked source below, the Orioles at 80.8M, ranked 27th ahead of the Pirates, Marlins and Rays; and had, by far, the largest percentage reduction in year over year compensation at -45.6%.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/index.php?cyear=2019&team=&pos=

 

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, AZRon said:

Updated the roster projection for all transactions through 12/2/2020.
See opening post

Projected 2020 Opening Day Payroll (ODP) is now $66M. Last year's ODP was $82.12.

As to 2019 full season player compensation, according to the linked source below, the Orioles at 80.8M, ranked 27th ahead of the Pirates, Marlins and Rays; and had, by far, the largest percentage reduction in year over year compensation at -45.6%.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/index.php?cyear=2019&team=&pos=

 

Thanks for the update.  

This does not change payroll but I see Mancini as the 1B and Davis on the bench.   I think Carroll is ahead of Fry, Tate and Kline.   Stewart begins the season on the DL, on rehab in the minors or optioned and Williams playing LF.   

Just thoughts.

[AZRon]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Thanks for the update.  

This does not change payroll but I see Mancini as the 1B and Davis on the bench.   I think Carroll is ahead of Fry, Tate and Kline.   Stewart begins the season on the DL, on rehab in the minors or optioned and Williams playing LF.   

Just thoughts.

OK, but Williams is not currently on the 40 Man and, if he replaces an IL'ed Stewart, that would affect the total payroll figure. Thanks for your thoughts.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, AZRon said:

OK, but Williams is not currently on the 40 Man and, if he replaces an IL'ed Stewart, that would affect the total payroll figure. Thanks for your thoughts.

I don't know whether Elias would burn an option which saves salary or IL Stewart but the early reports of his surgery sound like he will not be ready for OD.