Projected Orioles 2020 Opening Day Payroll (ODP)

[weams]

Just now, Frobby said:

I will predict he gets $8.8 mm.   Earned himself an extra million or so with his strong second half.   
 

This seems to have him in the 9s

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/09/orioles-rumors-jonathan-villar-trade-offseason.html

With Schoop at 7.5 last year, I guess somewhere from 9 to 11 is right. 

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I would take the under.

Does not seem to be even a chance of under 8.8. Not what he is worth. What he will get. If tendered. 

[Pickles]

Just now, weams said:

Does not seem to be even a chance of under 8.8. Not what he is worth. What he will get. If tendered. 

I think the most likely outcome is they settle.

He doesn't ask for 10.  He asks for like 9.8.

The O's offer 7.7.

They settle at 8.6.

[weams]

Dierkes has been wrong before, but he is usually an industry accepted touchstone. I don't like it always, but he is.  This isn't a blog saying this.  

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think the most likely outcome is they settle.

He doesn't ask for 10.  He asks for like 9.8.

The O's offer 7.7.

They settle at 8.6.

If the Orioles were prepared to be stuck with 9.8, I think he would get that as opposed to the 7.7   The arbitrator choses one number. And Villar is playing on house money. I don't see him settling. 

[weams]

This is not a negotiation per se. It is one thing or the other. And Villar has good comps for the higher award. 

[Pickles]

Well, to be fair, my initial ask was far higher than the article you provided sets the #.  I said 9.8; the article said 9.1, so you could take that down a bit.

I think it is very reasonable to think he ends up below 9.  I think it is likely he ends up below 8.8.

I don't think the difference between 9.1 and 7.7 is going to be much of a determining factor for how the O's can allocate their resources.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, to be fair, my initial ask was far higher than the article you provided sets the #.  I said 9.8; the article said 9.1, so you could take that down a bit.

I think it is very reasonable to think he ends up below 9.  I think it is likely he ends up below 8.8.

I don't think the difference between 9.1 and 7.7 is going to be much of a determining factor for how the O's can allocate their resources.

I don't either.  I think theses guys spend what they think is the right value for a resource. And just like you me and Frobby, we all think 9 is high. And he might get 10. OR 11.  What if the Orioles came in at 7.5?  and Villar at 10.8? I think I know who would win. 

[weams]

I think all this is moot because Villar will never get to the Arb table with the Orioles. It will be just like Jim Johnson. 

[weams]

Just now, weams said:

I think all this is moot because Villar will never get to the Arb table with the Orioles. It will be just like Jim Johnson. 

Or Jeremy Guthrie. 

[Pickles]

Well, maybe.  I could see that happening.

I wouldn't punt him for nothing over 2 mil in salary.  That's just me.

If they do that, well, more power to them.

[TonySoprano]

On 10/9/2019 at 7:21 PM, weams said:

So. Call to math brains. How do you get this down under 45 million?

In the past 5 years, the Rays' payroll has been 27th or lower.  This year it was 30th, at $53.5M.   

You already know the answer to your math problem; Davis and Cobb walk away from guaranteed contracts.  I'm not sure why you picked that number.   The last time Orioles payroll was below $50M was in 1996.  Even with attendance where it is, the Orioles should be able to pay twice that number, and it was 3X that number from 2016-18. 

[wildcard]

Do you think that the MLBTR estimate makes it harder to trade Villar?    Until the case is made in arbitration that the 10M estimate is too high does the MLBTRestimate influence GMs?   I don't know, just asking.

[weams]

19 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

In the past 5 years, the Rays' payroll has been 27th or lower.  This year it was 30th, at $53.5M.   

You already know the answer to your math problem; Davis and Cobb walk away from guaranteed contracts.  I'm not sure why you picked that number.   The last time Orioles payroll was below $50M was in 1996.  Even with attendance where it is, the Orioles should be able to pay twice that number, and it was 3X that number from 2016-18. 

The Astros is seen as the success story for all of these branded rebuilds. And they got theirs under 20 before starting to add. It's mostly a speculation from me and also a real minimum of what I think they could do.

Obviously a team that can't spend 70 million without losing money needs to be replaced. 

[weams]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you think that the MLBTR estimate makes it harder to trade Villar?    Until the case is made in arbitration that the 10M estimate is too high does the MLBTRestimate influence GMs?   I don't know, just asking.

I assume that GMs in modern baseball have the same tools available that Dierkes does and use them to do their evaluations. I guess there are still a few dinosaurs that pay any attention to press.media.