Trade Bait 2020

[ScGO's]

Heading into the offseason, the O's have a few player assets with 3 or more years of MLB service time that Elias is keeping on the roster and evaluating because he sees value or potential value as a trade asset.  We haven't really seen how Elias operates in the trade market yet, and I'm hoping he is able to make a few strong trades this offseason.  The Cashner trade was like a sneak preview, but I hope he is able to make a plethora of trades this year that could bring back some solid position player prospects.  Below is a list of potential trade assets in 2020.  Their values are all different

Strong Trade Chips

Trey Mancini (27) - 3.015 Service Years -.899 OPS this year has probably having Elias gamble on Trey's peak value.

Jonathan Villar (28) - 5.113 Service Years - Arbitration number hurts stock a bit, but this is probably Villar's peak value.

Hanser Alberto (27) - 3.085 Service Years - Versatile, would make a good NL player, and cheap.  I love Hanser, but this could be his peak value as well.

 

Trade Value, But Could Improve Stock With Strong Start to 2020

Dylan Bundy (27) - 4.026 Service Years - Less than $6 Million for a 2 WAR pitcher. A good start to 2020 would increase is value enough to bring back a real prospect.

Mychal Givens (29) - 4.069 Service Years -  If he can stop giving up homeruns in 2020, his stock could soar, especially with the K rates.

Miguel Castro (25) - 3.079 Service Years - No rush to trade him. K rates on the rise.  Still only as old as Hunter Harvey. Could break out a bit this season.

 

No Value As Of Now, But Could Rebuild Stock in 2020

Alex Cobb (32) - 2 Years and $29 Million Left. If he can return to form, this contract isn't that scary.

Richard Bleier (32) - 3.074 Service Years - Still three years of control, a lefty, and this will be year two after returning from his surgery.  Could rebuild stock enough to get a C level prospect.

Chris Davis (33) - Only Three Years and 60+ Million left on contract.  Never know. He he could hit .210 with 25 HRs and a .700 OPS, essentially get back to a 0 WAR player, we might be able to trade him for a bad contract. Trade three years of Davis for four years of Miguel Cabrera.  The chase for 500 HRs and 3000 hits might fill some seats?

 

 

 

[interloper]

If Cobb rebuilds value that would be like Elias winning the lottery, and he would probably trade him for peanuts as long as someone picked up most of the salary. It's not impossible. The consolation prize would be Cobb not being good enough to build value, but good enough to eat innings and be a veteran guy and stay healthy for the whole year. There's value in that, too, in that we don't have to suffer as many waiver wire guys flooding the rotation. 

Ultimately, I don't think we trade anybody this offseason. Villar is expensive and valuable to the team at the SS position. Hanser you need someone to play MI and split time at 3B with Ruiz. Trey, no one will offer enough to pry away a franchise guy and lineup stalwart. 

Bundy needs to prove he can continue down the Greinke path with success. Givens needs to prove he's the second half 2019 guy. Castro is a guy you keep tinkering with and hope he turns into Pedro Strop. 

[Philip]

I personally feel that Trey has only minimal trade value, but I wonder if Elias will only keep him til Mountcastle passes the date in the calendar that saves the extra year of control, and then he’s moved to make room for Mountcastle?

[7Mo]

28 minutes ago, Philip said:

I personally feel that Trey has only minimal trade value, but I wonder if Elias will only keep him til Mountcastle passes the date in the calendar that saves the extra year of control, and then he’s moved to make room for Mountcastle?

I doubt that Mountcastle has any bearing on when Mancini is traded. I think the "when" is entirely dictated by when Elias can maximize the return. 

[mdbdotcom]

Trade Trey for an infield prospect. No sense paying him close to $6 million on a team that will lose 100 games. By the time we're ready to content he'll be either too old or too expensive. Get what you can now.

[oriole]

You’ve got to trade Mancini if anything decent is offered. That is quite the caveat though considering right handed DH players are not particularly sought after. If not, he’s a homegrown player, a good guy, and a rare MLB contributor from an otherwise perpetually unsuccessful farm system. 
 

I’m hoping both Villar and Alberto stick around next year. They were fun to watch and it’s not like they’d realistically bring back much more than what we got with Cashner. 
 

Considering no need to splurge in FA and no solid trade chips...this is going to be one of the most boring off seasons ever. But the big picture is nice.

[UpstateNYfan]

15 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Trade Trey for an infield prospect. No sense paying him close to $6 million on a team that will lose 100 games. By the time we're ready to content he'll be either too old or too expensive. Get what you can now.

I am not opposed to any trade that may bring a return that might help in the future. However, IMO, a $6 million contract is not a reason in itself to "do it now". A team with a budget of less than $60 million (with 25% or so of that on one useless contract) can certainly "splurge" $6 mill on Mancini. A team needs to have some watchable players even in a 95-105 loss season.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, ScGO's said:

No Value As Of Now, But Could Rebuild Stock in 2020

Chris Davis (33) - Only Three Years and 60+ Million left on contract.  Never know. He he could hit .210 with 25 HRs and a .700 OPS, essentially get back to a 0 WAR player, we might be able to trade him for a bad contract. Trade three years of Davis for four years of Miguel Cabrera.  The chase for 500 HRs and 3000 hits might fill some seats?

Chris Davis is a flood-damaged, salvage title Aston Martin that you still owe $155,000 on and insurance won't pay because you got drunk and drove into a lake. 

He could improve his OPS 200 points next year and still be totally untradeable, even for someone else's bad contract.

[weams]

2 hours ago, ScGO's said:

 

No Value As Of Now, But Could Rebuild Stock in 2020

Alex Cobb (32) - 2 Years and $29 Million Left. If he can return to form, this contract isn't that scary.

Richard Bleier (32) - 3.074 Service Years - Still three years of control, a lefty, and this will be year two after returning from his surgery.  Could rebuild stock enough to get a C level prospect.

Chris Davis (33) - Only Three Years and 60+ Million left on contract.  Never know. He he could hit .210 with 25 HRs and a .700 OPS, essentially get back to a 0 WAR player, we might be able to trade him for a bad contract. Trade three years of Davis for four years of Miguel Cabrera.  The chase for 500 HRs and 3000 hits might fill some seats?

 

 

 

I was right with you until this point.

[weams]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Chris Davis is a flood-damaged, salvage title Aston Martin that you still owe $155,000 on and insurance won't pay because you got drunk and drove into a lake. 

He could improve his OPS 200 points next year and still be totally untradeable, even for someone else's bad contract.

This is the best darned post you have written. 

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I would be tempted to bite on Davis for Cabrera if both waive their no-trade clause (assuming there is one in both cases) and Cabrera checks out medically.

Why?  Davis is owed $69M plus some deferred money, and the contract is over after '22.  Cabrera is owed at least $124M through '23.  Both are essentially worthless as players, you're hiding both on the bench, the odds of getting positive production from either are remote.  Cabrera is 37 and played 26 games in the field last year. 2016 was the last time either was meaningfully above replacement.

Trading Davis for Cabrera would be paying an extra $50M for the possibility of a win or two.

[DrungoHazewood]

Here's how you save money on Davis: you sell him to the Pecos League.  That's the lowest level of all the Indy Leagues.  And they average 7.5 runs a game.  Davis could probably OPS 1.000 in a league where he's facing the equivalent of 66th-round draft picks in a stadium that sits at 6000 ft altitude.  The Santa Fe Fuego would love to have him.  Last season they had a guy named Sherman Graves who they converted to the field after being a mediocre pitcher at Savannah State, and he hit .432 and OPS'd 1.287.

I'm guessing the going salary in the Pecos League is about $800 a month.  Davis has three years left, six months of the season... 800 times six times three... carry the one... 

If the O's eat all but $14,400 of Davis' deal I bet someone would bite.  That's $14,400 that could go to hire a roving area scout, or to help build the locker room in the new Dominican complex.

[7Mo]

16 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Here's how you save money on Davis: you sell him to the Pecos League.  That's the lowest level of all the Indy Leagues.  And they average 7.5 runs a game.  Davis could probably OPS 1.000 in a league where he's facing the equivalent of 66th-round draft picks in a stadium that sits at 6000 ft altitude.  The Santa Fe Fuego would love to have him.  Last season they had a guy named Sherman Graves who they converted to the field after being a mediocre pitcher at Savannah State, and he hit .432 and OPS'd 1.287.

 

Would the Pecos League have to agree?

[DrungoHazewood]

42 minutes ago, John Welch said:

Would the Pecos League have to agree?

Yes, but I don't even know if it's allowed.  I'm not entirely sure a MLB team can sell a contract to another league, and even if they can probably not without the player's consent.

The contract is with MLB.  Not a completely separate, independent league.  Lawyers and agents would have to get pretty creative to pull this off.  But I think it's worth it for the complete absurdity of it all.  How can you not love a place where you take a guy who didn't bat for four years and suddenly hits like Barry Bonds?  It would be a perversely perfect bookend for Chris Davis' weird career.

[7Mo]

26 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yes, but I don't even know if it's allowed.  I'm not entirely sure a MLB team can sell a contract to another league, and even if they can probably not without the player's consent.

The contract is with MLB.  Not a completely separate, independent league.  Lawyers and agents would have to get pretty creative to pull this off.  But I think it's worth it for the complete absurdity of it all.  How can you not love a place where you take a guy who didn't bat for four years and suddenly hits like Barry Bonds?  It would be a perversely perfect bookend for Chris Davis' weird career.

Sorry, I was just joking.

As amusing as that would be, the players union would go nuts and do everything in their power to prevent it even being discussed.