2019 #12 Prospect: Keegan Akin - LHP

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think this comment sells Akin a little short.     He’s got flaws and may not succeed as a major league starter, but I certainly don’t see him as a mere placeholder.    He’s arguably the most highly regarded O’s  pitching prospect to complete AAA in the last 4-5 years (recognizing that John Means wasn’t that highly regarded, and Dylan Bundy never pitched AAA).    

Gausman?  Depends on what you mean by complete.   Elias' definition is different from Duquette's.

[MurphDogg]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Lol. Do you think we don't have additional information and just use our sub conscious bias to put out concerns like that? New around here? Honestly, this takes a shot at my credibility and I honestly don't like it. If you wanna disagree with our take, feel free, but don't try and disparage our information by saying we are using some kind of subconscious bias. 

That's disrespectful and I think we've earned the right not to have people take shots like that on this site.

I'm sorry if you feel disrespected, that was not my intent. I think you do a great job. You know I'm not new around here, so I don't know why you feel the need to disrespect me.

I also recognize that we all have subconscious biases. Recognizing them isn't admitting to some sort of a character flaw.

Judging work ethic, effort and conditioning is difficult because it takes place off the field where evaluators aren't able to directly see it. Sure you can talk to coaches who can tell you how much time a guy spends in the weight room or studying batter's tendencies, or will tell you if a guy goes for seconds at the post-game spread, but you don't have the benefit of a stop watch and a radar gun to judge it, so those evaluations rely on more anecdotal evidence, and comes second or third hand, so it is more likely for subconscious bias to be a factor.

If I look at two pitchers, one of whom is 6'3" and ripped and the other is 5'10" and a little doughy, I am going to have two initial biases : (1) that the first pitcher likely throws harder and is more effective; and (2) that the first pitcher is likely working harder off the mound. The first bias is easy to overcome by looking at the radar gun, stopwatch, spin rates and results. The second bias is more difficult to overcome. I can talk to coaches, but coaches have their own biases and may notice more when player 2 goes for dessert than player 1, and may not accurately judge who is spending more time in the weight room because they are doing a lot of other things. Our mind wants to make sense of things, and characterizing the more fit player as a harder worker, makes sense even if it isn't always true. The simple fact is that heftier players don't get the benefit of the doubt.

I am sure you have talked to coaches and you may well be a whole litany of evidence about Akin's conditioning shortcomings that you aren't at liberty to divulge. I understand and respect that. I simply posited a curiosity about the effect of sub-conscious bias on judging larger players. 

I think you do a great job and I did not intend to take a shot.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Gausman?  Depends on what you mean by complete.   Elias' definition is different from Duquette's.

Let’s just say that in 2015 we had Gausman, Davies, Wright and Wilson all in Norfolk at times.    So, I’d say Akin is the most highly regarded O’s prospect to complete AAA since then.    

[weams]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

I didn't read where weams said Akin would start the season in the majors.

I did not. You are correct. I did hear the strong indication that Akin would be given every opportunity to fail. And fail for an extended time. I got the impression that Elias is ride or die in 2020 on Akin. 

[weams]

45 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

 

I am sure you have talked to coaches and you may well be a whole litany of evidence about Akin's conditioning shortcomings that you aren't at liberty to divulge. I understand and respect that. I simply posited a curiosity about the effect of sub-conscious bias on judging larger players. 

I think you do a great job and I did not intend to take a shot.

Tony has lots of contacts. He is usually right on these minor league pitchers. Even when I don't want him to be or it conflicts with what I think I have seen. I've learned not to get too high on pitching prospects in general. Let alone ones that Tony is offboard on. There is a reason that we don't post a Weams top ten list here. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’d be shocked if Akin was on the OD roster, but I think if he starts the year decently in AAA we’ll see him before Memorial Day, and maybe before May Day.

I wouldn't be shocked, but I guess I'd be pleasantly surprised. He has better stuff overall than John Means, but doesn't have that plus and sometimes plus plus pitch that Means lived off of last year that can get swings and misses when he needs them.

If I had to guess though now, he starts 2020 in AAA.

 

[LookinUp]

6 minutes ago, weams said:

Tony has lots of contacts. He is usually right on these minor league pitchers. Even when I don't want him to be or it conflicts with what I think I have seen. I've learned not to get too high on pitching prospects in general. Let alone ones that Tony is offboard on. There is a reason that we don't post a Weams top ten list here. 

I swear this is the hardest group I've seen to evaluate. It's a good problem to have. I think our minors has a lot of ML contributors in the fold, or at least guys with a reasonable shot. I would rank many slightly different, but the write-ups really are most important and very appreciated.

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I wouldn't be shocked, but I guess I'd be pleasantly surprised. He has better stuff overall than John Means, but doesn't have that plus and sometimes plus plus pitch that Means lived off of last year that can get swings and misses when he needs them.

If I had to guess though now, he starts 2020 in AAA.

 

If Akin begins in the minors then the starting rotation is Means, Bundy, Cobb, Wojo and TBD.   And Elias will not spend for TBD. So it will be 6 year minor leaguer or someone making under 1M.   That is the way I see it.

[Tony-OH]

51 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I'm sorry if you feel disrespected, that was not my intent. I think you do a great job. You know I'm not new around here, so I don't know why you feel the need to disrespect me.

I also recognize that we all have subconscious biases. Recognizing them isn't admitting to some sort of a character flaw.

Judging work ethic, effort and conditioning is difficult because it takes place off the field where evaluators aren't able to directly see it. Sure you can talk to coaches who can tell you how much time a guy spends in the weight room or studying batter's tendencies, or will tell you if a guy goes for seconds at the post-game spread, but you don't have the benefit of a stop watch and a radar gun to judge it, so those evaluations rely on more anecdotal evidence, and comes second or third hand, so it is more likely for subconscious bias to be a factor.

If I look at two pitchers, one of whom is 6'3" and ripped and the other is 5'10" and a little doughy, I am going to have two initial biases : (1) that the first pitcher likely throws harder and is more effective; and (2) that the first pitcher is likely working harder off the mound. The first bias is easy to overcome by looking at the radar gun, stopwatch, spin rates and results. The second bias is more difficult to overcome. I can talk to coaches, but coaches have their own biases and may notice more when player 2 goes for dessert than player 1, and may not accurately judge who is spending more time in the weight room because they are doing a lot of other things. Our mind wants to make sense of things, and characterizing the more fit player as a harder worker, makes sense even if it isn't always true. The simple fact is that heftier players don't get the benefit of the doubt.

I am sure you have talked to coaches and you may well be a whole litany of evidence about Akin's conditioning shortcomings that you aren't at liberty to divulge. I understand and respect that. I simply posited a curiosity about the effect of sub-conscious bias on judging larger players. 

I think you do a great job and I did not intend to take a shot.

I don't repeat direct conversations that I've had with people, and when it's something that could be considered disparaging, I typically tend to generalize the situation. I would hope you would know that I don't judge a guy by what he looks like and just assume he's not in good condition. These are still young and maturing young men, and the light goes on for them at different times. 

There are also other things you can look for. I really don't care of Akin can run a marathon, but I do care if he's getting tired out there around the 5th inning and starts to labor. So even without inside information, there can be concerns over his conditioning. 

[Tony-OH]

27 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Akin begins in the minors then the starting rotation is Means, Bundy, Cobb, Wojo and TBD.   And Elias will not spend for TBD. So it will be 6 year minor leaguer or someone making under 1M.   That is the way I see it.

Those four are pretty solid for starting 2020 in the rotation in my opinion. Brooks and Akin are probably the current leading choices to battle for the 5th spot, though a 6-year guy or more likely a waiver claim could be in the mix as well. I expect Elias to sign a healthy amount of good six-year minor league free agent pitchers because of the opportunity that exists on the pitching staff in 2020 and beyond.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Those four are pretty solid for starting 2020 in the rotation in my opinion. Brooks and Akin are probably the current leading choices to battle for the 5th spot, though a 6-year guy or more likely a waiver claim could be in the mix as well. I expect Elias to sign a healthy amount of good six-year minor league free agent pitchers because of the opportunity that exists on the pitching staff in 2020 and beyond.

I'm not writing Cobb's name down in ink after the last two seasons.

[Tony-OH]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not writing Cobb's name down in ink after the last two seasons.

If he's healthy, and all indications are that he should be by next spring, he'll be in the rotation. He's as close to writing down in ink as any pitcher minus the injury risk.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I wouldn't be shocked, but I guess I'd be pleasantly surprised.

I’d be unpleasantly surprised, since I’d rather have the extra year of team control.    

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d be unpleasantly surprised, since I’d rather have the extra year of team control.    

I get that, but I'm not sure Akin is a guy you worry about team control of, but either way, I would be pleasantly surprised because it probably meant Akin looked great in the spring.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't repeat direct conversations that I've had with people, and when it's something that could be considered disparaging, I typically tend to generalize the situation. I would hope you would know that I don't judge a guy by what he looks like and just assume he's not in good condition. These are still young and maturing young men, and the light goes on for them at different times. 

There are also other things you can look for. I really don't care of Akin can run a marathon, but I do care if he's getting tired out there around the 5th inning and starts to labor. So even without inside information, there can be concerns over his conditioning. 

Seems to me one of his big problems last year was high pitch counts.   In 2018 he pitched at least 6 IP 14 times in 25 starts, and into the 7th on 5 occasions.    Last year he only made it through 6 IP 5 times.   A lot of that was simply throwing too many pitches in the early innings, which I think was a byproduct of throwing breaking stuff in fastball counts as Holt et al. encouraged him to do.