Richie Martin and Wandy Javier as Prospects

[Spl51]

Personally I think we stick players in the minors waaaay too long, especially hitters, who I think have a lot to offer in speed, baserunning, and defense at that age. I get why teams do it though, so that they control a player for more of their prime years. For me personally it's much more fun to watch a guy like Richie Martin figure it out over the year than a guy like Escobar or whatever veteran journeyman SS. Obviously it's hard to carry more dead weight with Davis on the roster though, so it really depends on if you think he could be special in the future.

[atomic]

I would be happy if they just skipped the rule 5 draft this year.  So many awful Rule 5 picks over the last few years.  Time to give it a rest. 

[sportsfan8703]

Juvier had a 6-89 stretch in the equivalent league as Delmarva.  Still I wouldn’t be against it.  Here’s some other SS available

• Reds: Alfredo Rodriguez, SS (No. 18) - The Reds gave Rodriguez $7 million to sign out of Cuba in 2016 with the hopes he’d be their future big league shortstop. He could defend in the big leagues right now, but he hasn’t hit consistently. There’s little impact with the bat, though he is coming off his best offensive season, hitting .286/.325/.347 in Double-A to earn a late promotion up a level.
• Angels: Leonardo Rivas, SS/2B (No. 25) - Rivas can run and he can defend, and he even added the outfield to his resume in 2019. Speed and versatility is a combination that can make for an intriguing Rule 5 pick, but he’s struggled to hit consistently (.252/.380/.362), albeit with solid on-base skills

From https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospects-in-the-2019-rule-5-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

[Luke-OH]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Juvier had a 6-89 stretch in the equivalent league as Delmarva.  Still I wouldn’t be against it.  Here’s some other SS available

• Reds: Alfredo Rodriguez, SS (No. 18) - The Reds gave Rodriguez $7 million to sign out of Cuba in 2016 with the hopes he’d be their future big league shortstop. He could defend in the big leagues right now, but he hasn’t hit consistently. There’s little impact with the bat, though he is coming off his best offensive season, hitting .286/.325/.347 in Double-A to earn a late promotion up a level.
• Angels: Leonardo Rivas, SS/2B (No. 25) - Rivas can run and he can defend, and he even added the outfield to his resume in 2019. Speed and versatility is a combination that can make for an intriguing Rule 5 pick, but he’s struggled to hit consistently (.252/.380/.362), albeit with solid on-base skills

From https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospects-in-the-2019-rule-5-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

It depends on what you want, if you want someone who can play regularly in 2020 at SS, the best option might be Yonny Hernandez. Not an upside type, but he walked more than he struck out at 20-21 years old between A+/AA. He can run and play all over the infield. The hope is he turns into a solid utility IF. 

I don't think SS is a strong position in the Rule 5 this year, but the best of the bunch seems to be Jonathan Arauz. He held his own between A+/AA as a 20 year old, with some present over the fence power. 

[DrungoHazewood]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, he can’t be that much worse than Martin was in the first half of last year.    If you want to quibble with 72 games, fine.   Make it 50.    My main point is I wouldn’t just have him rot on the bench the whole year, if we picked him.    And again, it depends if you believe those scouting grades on his tools.   

I guess you're technically right, in that Martin created about 11 runs in the first half offensively, and was probably 8 or 10 runs below average with the glove, so Javier couldn't be more than 10, 15, maybe 20 runs worse than that.  Dylan Bundy playing shortstop regularly probably wouldn't be more than 20 runs worse than 1st half Richie Martin.

But Wander Javier hit .177 in the Midwest League. He had 17 errors in 66 games.  He struck out in 34% of his plate appearances in the Midwest League.  My assumption is that he'd hit like an average pitcher, strike out about half the time, and be a -10 or -20 fielder.  This is a guy who, in a normal development plan, would be in the majors no earlier than 2023.

When Richie Martin was 20 he had a .677 OPS in low A ball.  Imagine calling him up for a full year in the majors three years ago, with three fewer years of pro experience, and coming off a much worse season.

[Luke-OH]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I guess you're technically right, in that Martin created about 11 runs in the first half offensively, and was probably 8 or 10 runs below average with the glove, so Javier couldn't be more than 10, 15, maybe 20 runs worse than that.  Dylan Bundy playing shortstop regularly probably wouldn't be more than 20 runs worse than 1st half Richie Martin.

But Wander Javier hit .177 in the Midwest League. He had 17 errors in 66 games.  He struck out in 34% of his plate appearances in the Midwest League.  My assumption is that he'd hit like an average pitcher, strike out about half the time, and be a -10 or -20 fielder.  This is a guy who, in a normal development plan, would be in the majors no earlier than 2023.

When Richie Martin was 20 he had a .677 OPS in low A ball.  Imagine calling him up for a full year in the majors three years ago, with three fewer years of pro experience, and coming off a much worse season.

Yeah, I think the Newtons, Javiers, etc are too raw to carry. Even if you do bite the bullet and stash them, how badly to you hurt their already tenuous development. I think if you haven’t seen upper level pitching, you need serious bat control ability which those guys don’t have.

Pitchers are better stash candidates IMO.

[interloper]

Martin was an "oh my god we have no middle infielders at all and we have the number one pick, might as well" kind of pick for Elias. I think this year we go with someone who could chew some middle relief innings. 

[Luke-OH]

12 minutes ago, interloper said:

Martin was an "oh my god we have no middle infielders at all and we have the number one pick, might as well" kind of pick for Elias. I think this year we go with someone who could chew some middle relief innings. 

I think I remember people being pretty excited about him and me telling everyone that he wasn’t going to hit.

But you are correct, it was a move to bolster upper minors middle infield depth and I expect we’ll see another such move this offseason whether it’s MiLB FA or Rule 5 or waiver claim.

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think I remember people being pretty excited about him and me telling everyone that he wasn’t going to hit.

But you are correct, it was a move to bolster upper minors middle infield depth and I expect we’ll see another such move this offseason whether it’s MiLB FA or Rule 5 or waiver claim.

Oh don't get me wrong I was pretty excited/hopeful, but then your scouting report kind of tempered that. And rightly so. 

I liked his second half though and hope he continues that progress in AAA. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Martin was an "oh my god we have no middle infielders at all and we have the number one pick, might as well" kind of pick for Elias. I think this year we go with someone who could chew some middle relief innings. 

I like taking position players.  There's no such thing as middle relief innings with our pitching staff.  We are constantly in ST, scramble to cover innings mode.  So that means not having the luxury to see what a guy can do in a particular role, or even keeping him on the 25 man roster when we need a fresh arm.  

SS is a premium position.  We have still have little depth there.  Aruaz would be a good pick.  I wouldn't have a problem taking Juvier, letting him play some, but basically looking at him as the SS in 2022.  

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like taking position players.  There's no such thing as middle relief innings with our pitching staff.  We are constantly in ST, scramble to cover innings mode.  So that means not having the luxury to see what a guy can do in a particular role, or even keeping him on the 25 man roster when we need a fresh arm.  

SS is a premium position.  We have still have little depth there.  Aruaz would be a good pick.  I wouldn't have a problem taking Juvier, letting him play some, but basically looking at him as the SS in 2022.  

Yeah, actually that's a good argument. I agree.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like taking position players.  There's no such thing as middle relief innings with our pitching staff.  We are constantly in ST, scramble to cover innings mode.  So that means not having the luxury to see what a guy can do in a particular role, or even keeping him on the 25 man roster when we need a fresh arm.  

SS is a premium position.  We have still have little depth there.  Aruaz would be a good pick.  I wouldn't have a problem taking Juvier, letting him play some, but basically looking at him as the SS in 2022.  

If you're taking Javier and having him mostly sit the bench or hit .100 for all of 2020 I think you'd be looking at him as the possible shortstop in 2024. 

He was miserable in low A last year.  On a normal track he'd probably go back there in 2020.  Instead you'd have him essentially miss the year, just working out with the O's.  You probably put him in Frederick in 2021. Maybe if he's really good he ends the year in Bowie.  Most of the year in AA in 2022.  If things work out well he's in AAA in '23, maybe a late callup.  But being more conservative you're looking at mid-year 2024.  Things could break better, his talent really comes out and he's ahead of that schedule.  But in no way do you expect him to be the MLB shortstop in '22.

[MurphDogg]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If you're taking Javier and having him mostly sit the bench or hit .100 for all of 2020 I think you'd be looking at him as the possible shortstop in 2024. 

He was miserable in low A last year.  On a normal track he'd probably go back there in 2020.  Instead you'd have him essentially miss the year, just working out with the O's.  You probably put him in Frederick in 2021. Maybe if he's really good he ends the year in Bowie.  Most of the year in AA in 2022.  If things work out well he's in AAA in '23, maybe a late callup.  But being more conservative you're looking at mid-year 2024.  Things could break better, his talent really comes out and he's ahead of that schedule.  But in no way do you expect him to be the MLB shortstop in '22.

Actually he would have to be up by the beginning of 2024, because he would be out of options at that point, using his three option years in 2021, 2022 and 2023, which could potentially further mess up his development.

[NCRaven]

Twins want an upgrade at 1B over Cron.  Could always have them include Javier in a Mancini trade package.  If he isn’t drafted by another team.  And, if we don’t take him, I doubt anyone else will.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

Actually he would have to be up by the beginning of 2024, because he would be out of options at that point, using his three option years in 2021, 2022 and 2023, which could potentially further mess up his development.

I’d be fine with this. It’s a long term pick for a long term solution. Who says you have to sit him all season?  Play him. It’s not like he’s going to cost us the pennant.