Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas

[Roll Tide]

44 minutes ago, weams said:

I did not close a thread. 

Sorry it was closed after the trade was announced....But sorry for the mistake

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Do you have a link to where Elias said this?    I don’t remember seeing it.    All I saw that Elias said was this:

“There’s seven guys and they’re good players, but there is money involved,” Elias said. “You’ve got to take it into consideration and it may influence the decision whether or not to tender a contract in the first place. But also your threshold for trading those guys if there’s interest elsewhere. That’s part of running any business and it’s part of reality.

“Money and budgets are a huge part of our business.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/11/winning-stays-on-back-burner-as-orioles-continue-transformation.html

I don’t interpret that as tipping anything.

 

Here is the post and it was posted by my Buddy @weams

 

 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/analysis/schmuck/bs-sp-dumping-jonathan-villar-makes-sense-20191201-cdw4nlq6abgzpf5tqz6qs7ury4-story.html

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Mike Elias made it pretty clear in late September that he isn’t interested in spending any real money for cosmetic victories

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Elias is right that it makes no business sense to pay a guy $10 million or so to help you lose 90 or 100 games when he isn’t likely to be around when your rebuilding project (hopefully) blooms, but the same logic doesn’t provide quite the same justification for trading away Mancini.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[weams]

Quote

The Marlins plan to utilize newly acquired Jonathan Villar in a super utility role rather than play him at just one position, as Mattingly explained to Kyle Sielaff and Paul Severino in a podcast appearance. In addition to his customary second base and shortstop, Villar figures to be deployed at third base and in the outfield at times.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/marlins-rumors-yasiel-puig-steven-souza.html

[Frobby]

Hottub: What do you think about the Orioles inability to get more than a fringe name for Villar? A tactical mistake or a true lack of interest at the predicted arb cost?

12:36

Kiley McDaniel: Arb is pretty broken process for multiple reasons. The one that applies here is it forces you to pay average players with big bulk stats more than they’d get as FA, or with RP that rack up saves. If there was a big surplus value, it would’ve been reflected in the trade market. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-12-4-19/

[NCRaven]

After taking time to cool off and reflect, it's simply clear that they only thing that mattered in this trade was the number 10, i.e., $10mil.  Villar was going to be gone by the end of the day Monday, and it didn't really matter to Elias whether something came back or not.  A bonus that he was able to get a fringe guy.  

Off the books:  Trumbo:  $13.5mil;  Villar:  projected $10mil; Bundy:  projected $5.7mil

Guess we can afford that Davis contract now.  Odds that Mancini is an Oriole on Thursday of next week?  After all, the only important number that he seems to present to Elias is projected $5.7 mil.

[atomic]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hottub: What do you think about the Orioles inability to get more than a fringe name for Villar? A tactical mistake or a true lack of interest at the predicted arb cost?

12:36

Kiley McDaniel: Arb is pretty broken process for multiple reasons. The one that applies here is it forces you to pay average players with big bulk stats more than they’d get as FA, or with RP that rack up saves. If there was a big surplus value, it would’ve been reflected in the trade market. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-12-4-19/

Villar at $10 million seems pretty reasonable. What did Josh Donaldson get? 23 million in arbitration.  If I were the owners I would give up a year of team control for modifications to arbitration. 

[Frobby]

Here’s a Fangraphs article lauding the trade from the Marlins’ standpoint.    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-marlins-had-a-good-week/

I thought this perspective was interesting:

 

Since Villar is a free agent at the end of 2020, it’s almost a given that he will be shopped at the trade deadline. If he can provide similar value on the basepaths while maintaining offensive production around league-average, teams should want to trade for him in time for the pennant race. Aguilar isn’t a free agent until after the 2022 season, and while power-focused bats aren’t necessarily the most desired in today’s game, Miami will have options at the trade deadline, next offseason, and perhaps even beyond that. 

This reason is exactly why rebuilding teams should continue to add talent to their major league rosters. Neither Aguilar nor Villar have adverse effects on the Marlins’ long-term goals: International signing dollars and draft bonuses are capped — it’s not even as if teams can use their savings on big league talent elsewhere. Plus, the Marlins still won’t be good in 2020 and shouldn’t have to worry about falling outside of the top five in the draft order.

[wildbillhiccup]

On 12/4/2019 at 8:18 PM, weams said:

The Marlins plan to utilize newly acquired Jonathan Villar in a super utility role rather than play him at just one position, as Mattingly explained to Kyle Sielaff and Paul Severino in a podcast appearance. In addition to his customary second base and shortstop, Villar figures to be deployed at third base and in the outfield at times.

I see the words "utility player" and assume he's not going to play everyday. So the Marlins, one of the first teams in baseball, don't think Villar's an everyday type of player? Very interesting...

[wildbillhiccup]

On 12/5/2019 at 10:02 AM, NCRaven said:

After taking time to cool off and reflect, it's simply clear that they only thing that mattered in this trade was the number 10, i.e., $10mil.  Villar was going to be gone by the end of the day Monday, and it didn't really matter to Elias whether something came back or not.  A bonus that he was able to get a fringe guy.  

Off the books:  Trumbo:  $13.5mil;  Villar:  projected $10mil; Bundy:  projected $5.7mil

Guess we can afford that Davis contract now.  Odds that Mancini is an Oriole on Thursday of next week?  After all, the only important number that he seems to present to Elias is projected $5.7 mil.

I was of this mindset all along, but to say that Elias didn't try to trade Villar for a better return and/or botched the trade is where I draw the line. I'm fairly confident that he's been shopping him since the start of the 2019 season and it's pretty clear that no one made him a solid offer, or Villar would have been traded mid-season. From what we've seen and heard, Elias has been very flexible in his trade demands. Top prospects...quantity over quality...whatever a team is willing to offer that he feels makes us better in the long run he'll consider. If there had been a better offer on the table he would have taken it.   

[wildbillhiccup]

5 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I see the words "utility player" and assume he's not going to play everyday. So the Marlins, one of the first teams in baseball, don't think Villar's an everyday type of player? Very interesting...

*worst" not first. Doh!

[NCRaven]

Super utility implies - to me - that he'll play a lot, just at several different positions and not all at 2B or all at SS.  He could be very close to everyday, just not at one position.

[wildbillhiccup]

7 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Super utility implies - to me - that he'll play a lot, just at several different positions and not all at 2B or all at SS.  He could be very close to everyday, just not at one position.

Probably true, I just though it was interesting that they weren't willing to completely commit to him playing everyday. I've said all along that I think Villar is a bit of accumulator so it will be interesting to see if he's still able to produce if he gets something like 50 less ABs. 

[weams]

30 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I see the words "utility player" and assume he's not going to play everyday. So the Marlins, one of the first teams in baseball, don't think Villar's an everyday type of player? Very interesting...

Super mean he'll play a lot. He played 161 last season I think. 

[Scalious]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Here’s a Fangraphs article lauding the trade from the Marlins’ standpoint.    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-marlins-had-a-good-week/

I thought this perspective was interesting:

 

 

 

$$$ Means nothing towards winning short or long term if you don't spend it. Teams have enough to build up their scouting/development programs if they want too and sustain decent player salary pay rolls with todays funds

Maybe Elias wants to go next level on it, but likely wont ever find out.

The Marlins were one the teams that a grievance filed against them for having their player pay roll too low recently. Even though these grievances are nothing more than symbloic protests usually.  Before the Villar trade, their payroll was only 47M. I'd argue this move for the Marlins was part diplomatic taking on 10M.

Edited December 6, 2019 by Scalious

[wildbillhiccup]

27 minutes ago, weams said:

Super mean he'll play a lot. He played 161 last season I think. 

Marwin Gonzalez was a super utility player last season and he only had 425 ABs. I'm taking the under on Villar getting 500 ABs in 2020.