Comparing Astros/Orioles.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

They are far behind the Astros. Yes, Elias is doing a lot of the same tricks as the Astros - but I think their timelines aren't really comparable.

For one, Elias didn't inherit an Altuve, Springer, or Keuchel here.

[Just Regular]

The pitching may be just as bad, but it'll be more palatable if it's rookies who might be good someday taking their lumps.

In 2019, 85 of our GS were from guys who I'd broad brush say we're has beens/never wases.

In 2020, 119 of the GS projected here are from guys who I'd broad brush say are Alex Cobb or potential contributors to the next good team.

http://www.claydavenport.com/projections/BAL.shtml

So 25% more starts will be relevant/endurable to our rebuild.  Even Cobb there's the angle of can he ascend to like Jonathan Villar trade value.

Only Wojo/Hess are kind of in the ~15 GS range both years where it feels mostly "AAA replacement" from a tabletop game perspective, and even those could get erased if we just go Bullpen Day every 5th game, or if Taijuan Walker wants a #2 starter role to rebuild his resume.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Philip said:

 In 2014, the Astros made a big jump, going from 51 wins the previous season to 70. In 2015 they won 86 games and went to the playoffs. I remember the big additions in ‘14 were Collin McHugh, and I think they called up George Springer during the season as well as John Singleton, who turned out to be a huge bust.

 Has anyone done a close enough comparison of the trajectory of the two teams to be able to extrapolate how much of a jump we can make this season? 

We have a lot of Ifs,  but we have enough guys Ready to help this season That we should be able to make a significant jump.

We are heading into the equivalent of 2013 for the Astros, not 2014.    The first season played under Luhnow was 2012.   

I do not expect a big jump this year.    If we are ready to make a jump in 2021 similar to the Astros’ in 2014, I’ll be very pleased.  
 

 

[7Mo]

3 hours ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

For one, Elias didn't inherit an Altuve, Springer, or Keuchel here.

Yes, but remember Altuve and Springer weren't Altuve and Springer until the Astro's sprinkled their magic developmental dust on them. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Yes, but remember Altuve and Springer weren't Altuve and Springer until the Astro's sprinkled their magic developmental dust on them. 

Springer was basically the Grayson Rodriguez of the Astros, inherited by Luhnow after being drafted 1:11 the previous June.    We don’t really have an analog to Altuve.   Means might sort of fit the bill if 2019 proves to be the norm for him.   

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Springer was basically the Grayson Rodriguez of the Astros, inherited by Luhnow after being drafted 1:11 the previous June.    We don’t really have an analog to Altuve.   Means might sort of fit the bill if 2019 proves to be the norm for him.   

Springer was a strike out  machine but in the opposite way of Gray Rod. The stros changed his swing and approach and developed a toolsy but ineffective player into a great player. "Astroball" has a very good description.

Altuve was an undersized second baseman with zero power until the stros re-made his swing. 

We don't have an analog to the "post swing change Altuve". But we have a few "pre-swing change Altuve" already, as does about every MLB team. 

The key will be whether we can develop hitters as well as pitchers going forward. I have more confidence in the pitcher development program but hopefully we get both.

In a perfect world, Means becomes Keuchel but that's really a stretch.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Springer was a strike out  machine but in the opposite way of Gray Rod. The stros changed his swing and approach and developed a toolsy but ineffective player into a great player. "Astroball" has a very good description.

Altuve was an undersized second baseman with zero power until the stros re-made his swing. 

We don't have an analog to the "post swing change Altuve". But we have a few "pre-swing change Altuve" already, as does about every MLB team. 

The key will be whether we can develop hitters as well as pitchers going forward. I have more confidence in the pitcher development program but hopefully we get both.

In a perfect world, Means becomes Keuchel but that's really a stretch.

I've read Astroball, Altuve just started eating right. 

[7Mo]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've read Astroball, Altuve just started eating right. 

He found one heck of a lunch plan.

[Going Underground]

51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've read Astroball, Altuve just started eating right. 

Flintstone Chewables can make you strong.Kids takes your vitamins.You can be strong like Altuve just not big.

[Philip]

4 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

The pitching may be just as bad, but it'll be more palatable if it's rookies who might be good someday taking their lumps.

In 2019, 85 of our GS were from guys who I'd broad brush say we're has beens/never wases.

In 2020, 119 of the GS projected here are from guys who I'd broad brush say are Alex Cobb or potential contributors to the next good team.

http://www.claydavenport.com/projections/BAL.shtml

So 25% more starts will be relevant/endurable to our rebuild.  Even Cobb there's the angle of can he ascend to like Jonathan Villar trade value.

Only Wojo/Hess are kind of in the ~15 GS range both years where it feels mostly "AAA replacement" from a tabletop game perspective, and even those could get erased if we just go Bullpen Day every 5th game, or if Taijuan Walker wants a #2 starter role to rebuild his resume.

I find it utterly unimaginable that we cannot find a better starter, or reliever, than Hess. He must be the placeholderist of placeholders, because we just need to find arms/legs/breathing to have a better producer.

[Philip]

One thing which I really wish we could compare is concepts in development.  Every team has the same goal, but not every team has the same process to achieve that goal and whatever the Astros did, cheating aside, it sure did work. The specific players aren’t especially relevant because what matters is creating the process and acquiring a lot of guys to put through that process. If Means is a product of that process, we will be fine and a lot sooner than expected.

[7Mo]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

One thing which I really wish we could compare is concepts in development.  Every team has the same goal, but not every team has the same process to achieve that goal and whatever the Astros did, cheating aside, it sure did work. The specific players aren’t especially relevant because what matters is creating the process and acquiring a lot of guys to put through that process. If Means is a product of that process, we will be fine and a lot sooner than expected.

If you want to grab on to something positive, Ramon Laureano.

The Astros gave away Laureano for Brandon Bailey. Clearly a bad value trade.

Elias just picked up Bailey for a Rule 5 pick. Bailey won't need to produce a lot to justify the value.

But you're right. It's the process. It's not one trade, but a way of operating over a series of trades/picks/signings. It'll take time.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've read Astroball, Altuve just started eating right. 

....yep, right out of a trashcan 

[oriolediehard]

We have some pitching prospects almost ready, that could be the difference and hope for the future.

[scOtt]

3 hours ago, Philip said:

One thing which I really wish we could compare is concepts in development.  Every team has the same goal, but not every team has the same process to achieve that goal and whatever the Astros did, cheating aside, it sure did work. The specific players aren’t especially relevant because what matters is creating the process and acquiring a lot of guys to put through that process. If Means is a product of that process, we will be fine and a lot sooner than expected.

Mike and Sig especially already know everything the Astros did. They both helped develop it. They're now redeveloping the same thing over again here in Balmer. And perfecting all the mistakes they made the first time.