Going for the #1 pick

[Orioles0615]

16 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Well yeah that too, but hopefully it's because the organization is following the Astros model.  

By cheating with trash cans and pine tar...

[Can_of_corn]

22 minutes ago, andrewochs615 said:

By cheating with trash cans and pine tar...

Everyone cheats with pine tar.

[UpstateNYfan]

20 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

The goal is to be good in 2023. Don't really care about squeezing out an extra 5 wins in 2020. Use any funds that would have been wasted on free agents, and use it for player development or save it for the future when the team is good. 

Seems like it gets pushed back another year every year. Define good?? .500??

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, UpstateNYfan said:

Seems like it gets pushed back another year every year. Define good?? .500??

Serious playoff contender, going 81-81 is not good in my book. 2022 seems a bit aggressive currently and we knew a year ago it was going to take 3 to 4 years to do a complete rebuild of this franchise the right way. 

[NCRaven]

So far, we haven’t filled a single hole with even mediocre talent.  Obviously, the plan is to only sign left over crap at the league minimum for 2020.

[7Mo]

3 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

So far, we haven’t filled a single hole with even mediocre talent.  Obviously, the plan is to only sign left over crap at the league minimum for 2020.

Remember that the intent all along was to improve the talent procurement, and development at the minor league level. Big changes come through the draft, international signings and trades that bring back prospects and all affect the minor league system.

The major league club will improve with prospects making their way to Baltimore rather than free agent signings or even trades for major league ready talent. 

I don't anticipate a focus on the major league team for another year or more. 

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

The goal is to be good in 2023.

 

17 hours ago, fansince1988 said:

Is 2023 the year we are supposed to be good again? I have not heard anything definitive until now. 

 

16 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Well, we better be winning by 2023 or Elias will be the ex GM of the Orioles. 

 

4 hours ago, andrewochs615 said:

If we are still tanking and trying to lose 100 games in 2021 then he should be gone. By that point they should at least be winning 75 games

 

10 minutes ago, UpstateNYfan said:

Seems like it gets pushed back another year every year. Define good?? .500??

 

4 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Serious playoff contender, going 81-81 is not good in my book. 2022 seems a bit aggressive currently and we knew a year ago it was going to take 3 to 4 years to do a complete rebuild of this franchise the right way. 

Elias has never put a timetable on when we would return to being a winning team.     Any statements about what the hoped-for timetable is have come from outside the organization.    

For me personally, the rough timetable I expect is what the Astros experienced:

Prior season: 56 wins (47 for us)

Year 1: 55 (54)

Year 2: 51

Year 3: 70

Year 4: 86

Year 5: 84

Year 6: 101

Saying that, I believe our organization was in worse shape when Elias took over than the Astros were  when Luhnow took them over in 2011.    I also believe it will be harder to do in the AL East what the Astros did in the AL West.    Finally, I believe that some of what the Astros accomplished by being early adopters of advanced analytics won’t be replicated easily because so many teams are now putting substantial resources into that area.    The O’s will catch up, and have already made a ton of progress in that area, but will have a hard time gaining any sizable advantage over other teams in that area, despite having some of the field’s historic leaders in that area.

Bottom line, I expect the O’s to begin seeing improvement in their record in 2021, as the Astros did in Luhnow’s year 3.     But I’m not confident we’ll progress as fast as the Astros.   I certainly doubt we win 75 games in 2021 as andrewochs615 suggested.   But, substantially more than in 2020 seems reasonable to expect.

For me, for the next couple of years I’m more focused on whether I see the cornerstones falling into place.    If Rutschman, Rodriguez and Hall are all developing into the studs we hope for, that will accelerate my expectations.     If they’re not progressing as fast as hoped, or appear to be developing big limitations, that will influence my view.    I’m singling those three out because they seem to have the highest upside in the organization, but really I’m watching the development of a whole bunch of possible key contributors, not to mention the guys we draft this year and next.    I won’t be judging Elias solely on the major league record in 2021, but by how the organization as a whole is progressing.    I’m pretty happy with how Year 1 went in that respect, but I need to see continuing progress.    

[Going Underground]

21 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Five year plans worked great for Stalin.

80 years ago today, Finland was fighting for its life against Stalin's aggression in the Winter War. The Soviets attacked even on Christmas Day, at Kelja (near Lake Ladoga), against the heavily outnumbered Finnish 10th Division. The Reds lost and suffered 2K dead.

[foxfield]

22 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Five year plans worked great for Stalin.

And I wonder, still I wonder, who’ll stop the rain?!?!

[Camden_yardbird]

I dont understand saying that you have neglected a talent procurement path in the international market, embracing ing that and then complete ignoring tale t procurement through free agency.  

The flaw was assuming international talent wasnt worth the cost and risk.

The flaw not is assuming free agents arent worth the cost and risk.  

The cynic in me is of the mind that Elias' hands are tied tighter than a drum this off season.  There have been plenty of buy a prospect and free agent deals that the Orioles should have been more than happy with.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

On 12/24/2019 at 6:58 PM, tntoriole said:

Well, we better be winning by 2023 or Elias will be the ex GM of the Orioles. 

[tntoriole]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

 

 

 

 

Elias has never put a timetable on when we would return to being a winning team.     Any statements about what the hoped-for timetable is have come from outside the organization.    

For me personally, the rough timetable I expect is what the Astros experienced:

Prior season: 56 wins (47 for us)

Year 1: 55 (54)

Year 2: 51

Year 3: 70

Year 4: 86

Year 5: 84

Year 6: 101

Saying that, I believe our organization was in worse shape when Elias took over than the Astros were  when Luhnow took them over in 2011.    I also believe it will be harder to do in the AL East what the Astros did in the AL West.    Finally, I believe that some of what the Astros accomplished by being early adopters of advanced analytics won’t be replicated easily because so many teams are now putting substantial resources into that area.    The O’s will catch up, and have already made a ton of progress in that area, but will have a hard time gaining any sizable advantage over other teams in that area, despite having some of the field’s historic leaders in that area.

Bottom line, I expect the O’s to begin seeing improvement in their record in 2021, as the Astros did in Luhnow’s year 3.     But I’m not confident we’ll progress as fast as the Astros.   I certainly doubt we win 75 games in 2021 as andrewochs615 suggested.   But, substantially more than in 2020 seems reasonable to expect.

For me, for the next couple of years I’m more focused on whether I see the cornerstones falling into place.    If Rutschman, Rodriguez and Hall are all developing into the studs we hope for, that will accelerate my expectations.     If they’re not progressing as fast as hoped, or appear to be developing big limitations, that will influence my view.    I’m singling those three out because they seem to have the highest upside in the organization, but really I’m watching the development of a whole bunch of possible key contributors, not to mention the guys we draft this year and next.    I won’t be judging Elias solely on the major league record in 2021, but by how the organization as a whole is progressing.    I’m pretty happy with how Year 1 went in that respect, but I need to see continuing progress.    

I agree with the timetable and your reasoning....however, my point was, if I own the team, if we don’t succeed by 2023, then I am getting another GM...just comes with the territory. Yes, there are all kinds of reasons that we may not win, but the GM still gets fired. Saying the AL East is hard, and that everybody else stole my best analytics ideas....that all may be true, but still....fired. 

[tntoriole]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

It is always harder to fire dictators than GMs. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

I agree with the timetable and your reasoning....however, my point was, if I own the team, if we don’t succeed by 2023, then I am getting another GM...just comes with the territory. Yes, there are all kinds of reasons that we may not win, but the GM still gets fired. Saying the AL East is hard, and that everybody else stole my best analytics ideas....that all may be true, but still....fired. 

I guess it just depends on what you mean by “succeed.”     I certainly think if we haven’t had a winning season through 2023 the owner would probably have lost patience.     

[NCRaven]

9 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Remember that the intent all along was to improve the talent procurement, and development at the minor league level. Big changes come through the draft, international signings and trades that bring back prospects and all affect the minor league system.

The major league club will improve with prospects making their way to Baltimore rather than free agent signings or even trades for major league ready talent. 

I don't anticipate a focus on the major league team for another year or more. 

It’s not mutually exclusive.