My prediction for how the Davis saga ends

[Enjoy Terror]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How many folks still hold a grudge against Mussina (2001)?

Those folks and the people who are upset about the Colts leaving overlap a lot, I bet. So basically no one under 40.

[7Mo]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I said he could come back for the 2032 reunion. 

Through a back door, for a limited time only.

[interloper]

Just now, Philip said:

The amount of money will be the same, the only difference would be the Destiination. The team will still be spending 161 large, the only difference is that some of that would go to whatever Davis and the team were to agree upon. And if Davis wants to donate a bunch of money to charity he doesn’t need the team to do it or re-structuring the contract to do it he can do it himself. 

True. But what my OP proposes is that both parties maximize the goodwill by making it a Thing. Instead of contributing to a charity by himself (like he did this offseason), perhaps they could create a new Orioles fund, or collaborate in some other way officially, despite him not being on the roster. And by giving him a role, maybe it makes the Angelos' feel better about the paycheck they're cutting him over the next two years. That prediction hinges on the fact that it appears clear there's a lot of hesitance in the ownership group to simply cut him, for whatever reason, however faulty that logic is. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Those folks and the people who are upset about the Colts leaving overlap a lot, I bet. So basically no one under 40.

Sure.

 

[billw76]

I think Davis will be here until the Orioles DFA him, or just release him. It's all on the team to finally cut ties with him. Personally I think this will be his last season with the team and he'll either be released when Mountcastle gets called up or at the end of the season.

Davis has zero reason to retire or help the team out of the contract, and there is no team dumb enough to trade for him. It's all on the Angelos brothers and Elias to finally release him and just pay him to stay home.

[billw76]

16 minutes ago, interloper said:

True. But what my OP proposes is that both parties maximize the goodwill by making it a Thing. Instead of contributing to a charity by himself (like he did this offseason), perhaps they could create a new Orioles fund, or collaborate in some other way officially, despite him not being on the roster. And by giving him a role, maybe it makes the Angelos' feel better about the paycheck they're cutting him over the next two years. That prediction hinges on the fact that it appears clear there's a lot of hesitance in the ownership group to simply cut him, for whatever reason, however faulty that logic is. 

My guess is that he hasn't been cut yet because he really hasn't blocked any legitimate replacement from playing time so far. Yes Mancini should have been getting most of the reps at 1B or DH but he mostly just played OF so Davis didn't really limit him.

Honestly why does there have to be any goodwill or collaboration just to make it seem amicable or make the Angelos brothers feel better about still having to pay him? Just release him and be done with it, other teams do it. I'm sure Davis wont have hurt feelings, he's still got over 60 million coming to him.

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, billw76 said:

Honestly why does there have to be any goodwill or collaboration just to make it seem amicable or make the Angelos brothers feel better about still having to pay him? Just release him and be done with it, other teams do it. I'm sure Davis wont have hurt feelings, he's still got over 60 million coming to him.

There doesn't have to be. But it makes sense to try to make a really bad situation just a little bit better if possible. 

[billw76]

5 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

There doesn't have to be. But it makes sense to try to make a really bad situation just a little bit better if possible. 

How is it a bad situation? I guess I don't see it that way.

Davis has gotten paid very well, and will continue to do so whether he's on the team or not, he has nothing to be upset about IMO.

[Too Tall]

The OP predicts how The Davis Saga could play out. It is both reasonable and rational. The quality of the thought behind the OP is why I continue to turn to this site everyday for Orioles related news and opinion. Thank you!!! Personally. I've moved on from Chris even though the Orioles have not. With this team, my life long team, I'm going to look for and appreciate the positives.  Never-the-less, I enjoyed reading and thinking about this and appreciate the time and thought it was given. 

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Those folks and the people who are upset about the Colts leaving overlap a lot, I bet. So basically no one under 40.

I'm old enough to hate the Irsay's, but I don't blame Mussina for walking away from the messed up negotiations of Peter Angelos.  Wish it wasn't the Yankees, but they obviously offered the best money at the time.

[SteveA]

I still think that we are set up for an earlier dismissal.   Giving him "specific tasks" to work on during the offseason (whatever they may be), something Elias was unable to do last offseason because he hadn't been hired, sets us up for three possible outcomes:

   1) Davis isn't doing the required work, and the Orioles have a way of monitoring/knowing this.   Gives them a legitimate reason they can cite when they DFA him, that can make the fact that he didn't take the requested steps the big story.   I doubt it allows them to recoup any salary but I think this can help them convince ownership that it's time, if ownership in fact is the driving force in keeping him thus far.

   2) Either Davis DOES complete the required work, or at least they have know way of proving he didn't, but he continues to perform at historically bad levels.   Once again, if ownership reluctance to cut bait is really the driving factor, even they must have some breaking point at which they are convinced it's time.   Elias can go to them and say, look, we tailored an offseason package of work for Davis that was the best thing we could come up with to get him back to where he should be, and it didn't work.   We got nothing else to try.   [The question here is does this decision happen in June-ish or after the season?].

   3) Davis actually shows significant improvement.   Hey, I doubt it, but I have to put it in as a possible outcome.   This one would actually be somewhat problematic, if he improved to say, the 27th best 1st baseman in baseball, because he would still be be getting paid way too much for that, be blocking prospect and/or forcing Mancini to remain an an outfield spot he is ill-suited for.

But the fact that they gave him something specific to work on in the offseason, indicates to me that they were setting calendar 2020 up as the breaking point one way or another.   I don't see them going through another season like last year, and then on September 28 telling him, OK, we've come up with a different set of things for you to work on in the offseason to try to become a major league caliber player again.   Nope, that's not going to happen.

I will be shocked if Davis is still on the roster on New Year's Eve [unless #3 happens and he magically, significantly, and unexpectedly improves].   I think they set up a plan that has multiple decision points in 2020 where they could make a case to ownership that it has to happen.

 

[SteveA]

Just now, SteveA said:

I still think that we are set up for an earlier dismissal.   Giving him "specific tasks" to work on during the offseason (whatever they may be), something Elias was unable to do last offseason because he hadn't been hired, sets us up for three possible outcomes:

   1) Davis isn't doing the required work, and the Orioles have a way of monitoring/knowing this.   Gives them a legitimate reason they can cite when they DFA him, that can make the fact that he didn't take the requested steps the big story.   I doubt it allows them to recoup any salary but I think this can help them convince ownership that it's time, if ownership in fact is the driving force in keeping him thus far.

   2) Either Davis DOES complete the required work, or at least they have know way of proving he didn't, but he continues to perform at historically bad levels.   Once again, if ownership reluctance to cut bait is really the driving factor, even they must have some breaking point at which they are convinced it's time.   Elias can go to them and say, look, we tailored an offseason package of work for Davis that was the best thing we could come up with to get him back to where he should be, and it didn't work.   We got nothing else to try.   [The question here is does this decision happen in June-ish or after the season?].

   3) Davis actually shows significant improvement.   Hey, I doubt it, but I have to put it in as a possible outcome.   This one would actually be somewhat problematic, if he improved to say, the 27th best 1st baseman in baseball, because he would still be be getting paid way too much for that, be blocking prospect and/or forcing Mancini to remain an an outfield spot he is ill-suited for.

But the fact that they gave him something specific to work on in the offseason, indicates to me that they were setting calendar 2020 up as the breaking point one way or another.   I don't see them going through another season like last year, and then on September 28 telling him, OK, we've come up with a different set of things for you to work on in the offseason to try to become a major league caliber player again.   Nope, that's not going to happen.

I will be shocked if Davis is still on the roster on New Year's Eve [unless #3 happens and he magically, significantly, and unexpectedly improves].   I think they set up a plan that has multiple decision points in 2020 where they could make a case to ownership that it has to happen.

 

I didn't [intentionally] put those crossouts in my post and I don't know how to get rid of them.   I meant everything I wrote.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

The Chris Davis saga will end with him getting all of his money. The only way he restructures his contract is if he breaks his leg trying to fight a wild boar on his ranch.

[Scalious]

The chances of collecting on insurance if he gets hurt or a positive drug test. Reason's MLB teams don't cut loose their wastes of space unless it's the last year of a deal. (usually)

Guys like Gil Meche and Ryan Dempster were in good standing with their Org when they left early. Dempster got a nice ring right before that. As a competitor. Davis retiring is admitting defeat and I don't see that happening. (before even considering the $$$) Even if he's been rather apathetic about improving himself.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Scalious said:

The chances of collecting on insurance if he gets hurt or a positive drug test. Reason's MLB teams don't cut loose their wastes of space unless it's the last year of a deal. (usually)

Guys like Gil Meche and Ryan Dempster were in good standing with their Org when they left early. Dempster got a nice ring right before that. As a competitor. Davis retiring is admitting defeat and I don't see that happening. (before even considering the $$$) Even if he's been rather apathetic about improving himself.

I don't agree with your reasoning.  I don't think injury insurance and the chances of a drug suspension factor into team's decisions in a meaningful way.  If they did the Angels wouldn't have paid to get rid of Josh Hamilton.  He was the most likely player to be hit with a drug suspension since Steve Howe.