What will it take to make Mychal Givens good again?

[Scalious]

Lets blind you all with numbers and colors!

 

Year: Inning Usage  ERA (xFIP)

2016: 6th/7th inning guy   3.13 (3.78)  

2017: 6th/7th/8th inning guy  2.75 (3.85)  

2018: 7th/8th inning guy     3.99 (4.11)

2019: 8th/9th inning guy     4.57 (3.62)  

 

Usage numbers

Games with zero days rest: 8 - 13 - 10 - 9

Games in save/hold/tie: situation:  22 - 29 - 30 -39

Fastball usage: 64 - 72 - 77 - 70

Slider usage: 30 - 20 - 14 -16

Change usage: 6 - 8 - 9 - 14

 

wOBA Against Splits

LHH: .437 - .274 - .294  - .375

RHH:  .233 - .268 - .258 - .255

% LHH Faced:  31 - 36 - 39 - 40

 

Statcast

Barrels/PA against: 3.4 - 6.6 - 3.9 - 11.0

Exit Velo:  84.7 -  86.7 -  85.2  -  88.6

Edited January 16, 2020 by Scalious

[Just Regular]

Forecaster reports he increased his change-up usage last year and got a lot (23%) of swinging strikes with it.  He had a tale of two seasons platoon splits wise as in the worse first half he was near even (101 OPS+ allowed LHB and an atypical 110 OPS+ v. RHB).  In the better 2nd half LHB feasted (141 OPS+), but he was back to the death to righties mode that is his good self (41 OPS+)

Last year he faced 155 RHB and 105 LHB - 60% platoon advantage

2018 was 193/124 - 61%

2017 was 202/113 - 64%

2016 was 215/98 - 69%.

He's better spotted (or opening?), even though he's our fireman.  If we want to showcase him, find the RHB.

I do draw some encouragement from reports of Yankees continued interest last year, but to an extent I feel he was used up for the good Buck teams - 3rd most RP IP MLB-wide his three full years.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2016-01-01&enddate=2018-12-31&sort=8,d

Nothing wrong with that - burning bright and dying fast isn't uncommon.

 

[UpstateNYfan]

What is the shelf life of a typical good, late inning relief pitcher (not outlier, which Givens is not)? It seems to me that relief pitchers have one killer pitch and a decent secondary...when one of the two goes the spiral down is pretty quick.

[weams]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I am not saying I have the answer but I will throw out a few areas to discussion.

When was Givens good?

That is a harder question then one might think.  Givens broke in in 2015  with a 1.73 ERA and a 1.80 FIP in 30 innings.  In 2016 the has a 3.15 ERA and a 3.31 FIP  in 74.2 IP and a 8-2 record.      In 2017 he had his best ERA of 2.75 but his FIP raised to 3.72 with a record on 8-1  in 78.2 IP.   Some would say that in 2016 and 2017 Givens was a vulture meaning a pitcher that comes into a game when the O's are losing or tie and pitches well to get the win.  Givens gave up 10 homers in 2017.

 

Have him pitch to predominantly right handers. 

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

Have him pitch to predominantly right handers. 

Givens has pitched well vs lefties in certain years:

Ops against vs lefties

2015:   .555

2016:    1.025

2017:    .619

2018:   .689

2019:  .930

Someone smarter that me has to figure out why Givens is good vs lefties in some years and not in others.

 

[Just Regular]

A survey of some Orioles relievers hand picked looking at ~3-year peaks and a few Year 4 results with B-Ref WAR

Givens 2016-2018: 4.8 WAR.   Year 4 = 0.6 WAR

Britton 2014-2016: 9.2 WAR.    Year 4 = 1.0 WAR

Brach 2015-2017: 5.7 WAR.  Year 4 = -0.1 WAR as Oriole, dealt to Atlanta

Ray 2005-2007: 3.2 WAR.   Year 4 = did not play in 2008

Ryan 2003-2005: 7.4 WAR.  Year 4 = the one good year he gave Toronto.

Benitez 1997-1998: 3.7 WAR, then was on Mets in 1999.  It felt like longer with the many partial seasons, but we only had him two full years.

Rhodes 1996-1998: 4.6 WAR.  His 1995 and 1998 netted 0.0 WAR, so arguably a 2-year peak.  He did have a second act as a star with Seattle.

Myers 1996-1997: 4.8 WAR.  He had seven 1-win seasons.

Smith 1994 looms large in my memory, but it was just 38 innings as an Oriole with the strike.

Olson 1989-1993 did successfully push his run past 3 years.  11.5 WAR across the five, with the lull in Year 3

Aase 1985-1986: 2.5 WAR.    Year 3 = 8 innings pitched

Tippy Martinez - a first look in adulthood at the B-Ref page of a childhood icon.  That 3.3 WAR 1983 was his only season above 1.6 WAR and the last season he was in the black.  His IP by year as an Oriole: 42/50/69/78/81/~59~/95/103 before the descent.

That ~59~ in 1981 was a 105-game season for a 162-pace of 91.  That is a trend!

[weams]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Givens has pitched well vs lefties in certain years:

Ops against vs lefties

2015:   .555

2016:    1.025

2017:    .619

2018:   .689

2019:  .930

Someone smarter that me has to figure out why Givens is good vs lefties in some years and not in others.

 

Usage. 

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, weams said:

Usage. 

Can you clarify?   Used too often?  Not often enough? Vs the wrong players? In the wrong innings?

[weams]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Can you clarify?   Used too often?  Not often enough? Vs the wrong players? In the wrong innings?

Yes. He appears to be a eighth inning or before specialty guy.  When you absolutely positively need a right hander to whiff

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

We were just discussing how 30 IP isn't a large enough sample size.  I'm guessing Hunter's time as a closer would also count as not enough of a sample size to make any real determination.

Hunter's career OPS against in the 9th is .753.  Overall it's .736.  In the 6th and 7th it's over .800.  In the 8th it's .586, probably because when he's pitched well he's almost always been used as a setup guy.  I'm very skeptical of the choking label, or the idea that it takes a special kind of person to pitch the 9th inning.  Tommy Hunter is probably not lacking in pixie dust, it's that he's a reliever with a low strikeout rate and high variability in outcomes.

[Just Regular]

Means has earned the Opening Day honor, but the Yankees are the one lineup in the league with four RHB up top (LeMahieu, Judge, Torres, Stanton) that perhaps won't be messed with.  In the category of old dogs and new tricks, would love to see Givens open for Cobb in game 2.

[weams]

1 minute ago, OrioleDog said:

Means has earned the Opening Day honor, but the Yankees are the one lineup in the league with four RHB up top (LeMahieu, Judge, Torres, Stanton) that perhaps won't be messed with.  In the category of old dogs and new tricks, would love to see Givens open for Cobb in game 2.

Is Cobb walking?

[BamaOsFan]

His handling of pressure seems to be an issue. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Givens has pitched well vs lefties in certain years:

Ops against vs lefties

2015:   .555

2016:    1.025

2017:    .619

2018:   .689

2019:  .930

Someone smarter that me has to figure out why Givens is good vs lefties in some years and not in others.

 

He faces 100 or 120 lefties a year.  BABIP can take thousands of PAs to stabilize.  In 2017 his BABIP against lefties was just over .200, in 2018 it was just over .300.  In 2016 it was .474(!).  

I'm sure some of this was his approach and execution.  But a lot of it is just natural random variation in tiny samples of PAs.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, BamaOsFan said:

His handling of pressure seems to be an issue. 

Or that's a nice narrative to backfit into what's actually random variation.