Mussina and Palmer

[DrungoHazewood]

To be fair to OldFan...I think he has a point (it had to happen sooner or later). Mussina didn't play with the same caliber of pitchers as Palmer did. So I don't think it's fair to compare how many times each led their respective teams in Wins, ERA or Strikeouts. I mean when did Palmer ever pitch along side of the likes of Sidney Ponson, Scott Erickson, Juan Guzman, and Jason Johnson among others?

Erickson was a better pitcher than some Orioles who've won 20 games, like Wayne Garland, Mike Torres, and Steve Stone. As Mussina's teammate he pitched 221 or more innings four consecutive years.

And you fail to mention some of Mussina's other teammates:

Roger Clemens

Randy Johnson

David Wells

Kevin Brown

Jimmy Key

Ben McDonald

Andy Pettitte

Chien-Ming Wang

Javier Vazquez

2-3 of those guys are going to the Hall. How many of Palmer's rotation mates are in Cooperstown? I don't think the gap is quite what you think it is.

[Baltimoron]

You also omitted the fact that Palmer allowed far fewer hits per innings pitched than Mussina. If you are going to cite BB rate, you have to look at hit rate, too.

That's directly attributable to the defense behind Palmer.

Many would argue its partially attributable to his defense, and partially attributable to Palmer's ability to prevent hits on balls in play (or for the conspiracy theorists, he just had a super crazy amazing lucky horseshoe).

Palmer's career babip is over 4 standard deviations better than that of his teammates (while they were his teamates). google document link. For an explanation of the document, go here.

Only 20 pitchers with 500 or more IP are 4 SDs better than their mates.

[ledzepp8]

I don't get your point. Why does the fact that Mussina pitched on some mediocre teams diminish what Mussina did on those teams? Lord knows, if he had been pitching on better teams, he would have won significantly more games.

I also don't understand your statement that although Mussina has had the lowest ERA on the Yankees four times, he has rarely been the best pitcher on the Yankees. I'd certainly make the case that Mussina was the Yankees' best pitcher in 3 of those 4 years (2001, 2003 and this year). Clemens won more games in 2001 and Pettitte won more game in 2003 despite having significantly higher ERAs, because they had outrageously good run support in those years. That doesn't make them the better pitchers.

It doesn't diminish what Mussina did, but the point is that it's silly to compare Mussina and Palmer like this. Palmer pitched along side of guys like McNally, Cuellar, McGregor, Flanagan, etc. Surely it's not the same thing to lead your team in ERA when your pitching with the likes of Sidney Ponson, Scott Erickson, Juan Guzman, Jason Johnson, etc? If we were comparing how many times they led the league in ERA or Wins, it might be a little more compelling. Palmer led in ERA twice and Wins three times. Mussina led in Wins once.

[Lucky Jim]

To be fair to OldFan...I think he has a point (it had to happen sooner or later). Mussina didn't play with the same caliber of pitchers as Palmer did. So I don't think it's fair to compare how many times each led their respective teams in Wins, ERA or Strikeouts. I mean when did Palmer ever pitch along side of the likes of Sidney Ponson, Scott Erickson, Juan Guzman, and Jason Johnson among others?

This is a point I made obliquely, but meant to make more strongly. Absolutely the case.

On the other hand - they shared pretty much the same number of ERA+ 130+ years (9 for Palmer, 8 for Mussina).

I'm still not convinced that:

3.49 ERA for a 129 ERA+ is the same as a 2.51 ERA for a 130 ERA+. Part of this is my suspicion that a number of factors led to more pitchers who were marginal major leaguers (who pitched more innings at an inflated ERA) pitched in the 1990s.

Thus, in 1976, Palmer was .15 ERA behind the league leader at 130 ERA+. Mussina, on the other hand, was .8 ERA behind the league leader.

Not sure that's actually relevant. Just trying to tease out something that makes instinctive sense to me.

[DrungoHazewood]

Palmer was a first time Hall of Famer. I highly doubt it was only because he pitched for the Orioles.

Palmer had a low strikeout rate and good durability. He pitched for a team with a spectacular defense, and in an era and for a manager who loved starting pitchers who could go nine.

If Palmer had been drafted as an 18-year-old by the Mariners in 1985 or the A's in 1945 he probably wouldn't have won 200 games.

[ledzepp8]

Erickson was a better pitcher than some Orioles who've won 20 games, like Wayne Garland, Mike Torres, and Steve Stone. As Mussina's teammate he pitched 221 or more innings four consecutive years.

And you fail to mention some of Mussina's other teammates:

Roger Clemens

Randy Johnson

David Wells

Kevin Brown

Jimmy Key

Ben McDonald

Andy Pettitte

Chien-Ming Wang

Javier Vazquez

2-3 of those guys are going to the Hall. How many of Palmer's rotation mates are in Cooperstown? I don't think the gap is quite what you think it is.

I didn't mean to put down Scott Erickson, he was a very serviceable starter for us until he got injured...but he's clearly not on par with some of the pitchers that Palmer pitched with. Look at Lucky Jim's post though, Mussina led teams in ERA that won 74, 78, 79, 98, 88, 71, 63, and 89 games respectively. That's only three winning seasons. Now clearly leading a losing team and most likely a bad pitching staff in ERA isn't the same as leading the teams on which Palmer pitched. And yes Mussina pitched with Clemens and Randy Johnson, but does pointing out that he pitched with them on the downside of their careers really help the argument?

[Lucky Jim]

I don't get your point. Why does the fact that Mussina pitched on some mediocre teams diminish what Mussina did on those teams? Lord knows, if he had been pitching on better teams, he would have won significantly more games.

I also don't understand your statement that although Mussina has had the lowest ERA on the Yankees four times, he has rarely been the best pitcher on the Yankees. I'd certainly make the case that Mussina was the Yankees' best pitcher in 3 of those 4 years (2001, 2003 and this year). Clemens won more games in 2001 and Pettitte won more game in 2003 despite having significantly higher ERAs, because they had outrageously good run support in those years. That doesn't make them the better pitchers.

My point was that Drungo argued that they'd had similar accomplishments on similar teams. This simply wasn't true. The bulk of Mussina's accomplishments that Drungo listed (and they wouldn't have been what I listed necessarily) came when Mussina was playing on the Orioles (i.e., two playoff teams among 9 seasons).

My point was that the attempt to make it appear an apples-apples comparison was misguided.

Though I admittedly was far from clear.

But that was also just one point among the several that I made - the more important of which is that being the best pitcher on teams built to score a lot of runs is different than being the best pitcher on a team that was built on suppressing runs.

The inverse would be true: claiming that a guy led an anemic hitting team in homeruns each year is comparable to leading the Yankees in homeruns each is would seem a wobbly comparison.

I'm a Moose fan, by the way. But Moose's role and that of Palmer - on good teams - was fairly different.

[Lucky Jim]

Many would argue its partially attributable to his defense, and partially attributable to Palmer's ability to prevent hits on balls in play (or for the conspiracy theorists, he just had a super crazy amazing lucky horseshoe).

Palmer's career babip is over 4 standard deviations better than that of his teammates (while they were his teamates). google document link. For an explanation of the document, go here.

Only 20 pitchers with 500 or more IP are 4 SDs better than their mates.

I love when this argument comes up. And it's really the center of this whole debate. Nice to see you drop in BMoron.

[Lucky Jim]

Palmer had a low strikeout rate and good durability. He pitched for a team with a spectacular defense, and in an era and for a manager who loved starting pitchers who could go nine.

If Palmer had been drafted as an 18-year-old by the Mariners in 1985 or the A's in 1945 he probably wouldn't have won 200 games.

This is perhaps true. In this argument, Palmer's "luck" isn't on BABIP but rather on being drafted by the only organization in baseball outfitted to his own idiosyncratic skills. I'm not sure how Okkam's Razor would feel about this, though.

[Baltimoron]

I agree with what you wrote in bold here. However, the same point applies to the other statistics you cited that favors Mussina. For example, strikeouts are much more common now than when Palmer pitched, so the fact that Mussina has a higher K/9 is not that important.

Is there any proof of this?

Maybe you are being facetious, but of course there is. Obviously, the real issue is each pitcher's relative strikeout rate compared to the league, and strikeout rate is still important, but Ks are more common today than during Palmer's era.

One quick and dirty way to look is to go to baseball reference and view total strikeouts by league for each season.

For example, in 1972, there were 10414 Ks in the AL 1971 link.

Most of the late 60s and early 70s, there were about 10,000 K's per seasons.

When Mussina's career started in the early 90s, we saw about 12,000 Ks per season in the AL 1992 link, and by the late 90s and thru the next century, we have seen about 14,000 K's per season. 1999 link, 2006 link.

2 teams were added in what, 1977, so that is 324 more games, or about 16% more games post 1977 than prior.

But the 14,000ish ks/year of the late 90s and this century is @ 40% greater than the 10,000 average Ks of the late 60s early 70s, so Ks are definitely up since Palmer's days.

[wickedwitch]

The idea that Mussina isn't a big game pitcher baffles me. If the offensive hasn't been non-existent for game six of the 1997 ALCS, he'd be considered a hero. He also saved game 7 of the 2003 ALCS for the Yankees.

And Mussina has had Derrek Jeter in the most important defensive position since he's gone to the Yankees. That has to hurt him.

Mussina might not be Palmer's equal, but it's certainly close. Even Palmer thinks so, despite his ego.

[Lucky Jim]

The idea that Mussina isn't a big game pitcher baffles me. If the offensive hasn't been non-existent for game six of the 1997 ALCS, he'd be considered a hero. He also saved game 7 of the 2003 ALCS for the Yankees.

And Mussina has had Derrek Jeter in the most important defensive position since he's gone to the Yankees. That has to hurt him.

Mussina might not be Palmer's equal, but it's certainly close. Even Palmer thinks so, despite his ego.

Never understood that argument either. He was pretty great in the handful of big games I watched him in as an O.

[Mackus]

Its so tough comparing people from different eras, especially when the teams around them have been so different.

I think wickedwitch's post is dead on.

[ledzepp8]

Its so tough comparing people from different eras, especially when the teams around them have been so different.

I think wickedwitch's post is dead on.

Yeah I think it's silly to try and claim that Mussina hasn't been outstanding in the playoffs. I do think however that it should be pointed out, when comparing Mussina and Palmer, that Palmer has won 3 WS to Mussina's 0.

[jiminnj]

As someone who became an Oriole fan in "63" I saw both.

In my opinion, Palmer did something that Mussina never will do and that was he was the best pitcher in the league for 3 different seasons (3 Cy Youngs), so at his best, Palmer was a better pitcher than Mussina at his best.

On the other hand, Mussina has had longer productive career, especially what he is doing in his late 30s and he has avoided the injury bug. Mussina has been very good for longer than Palmer.

Both have had brilliant moments in the post season and clutch games and some failures too.

Overall, they both were/are incredibly good pitchers, and it is close, but I give the nod to Palmer.

Palmer has got to be closer to the heart of any Oriole fan from the mid 60s to now.

Mussina should be a hall of famer when its all over.