Where is MacPhail headed this off season?

[Satyr3206]

Based on the interview MacPhail gave before the game tonight I think his priorities are pitching and a SS. He seemed pleased with the offense and I don't think he is inclined to put 20-22 million in one basket. No matter who it is.

[Sports Guy]

Do you think MacPhail if he had the budget would make Tex an exception to the rule? Or do you see this as a situation where MacPhail doesn't really have full control over the baseball operations?

I think PA is going to tell him that he wants Tex here and to get it done.

I do think PA will have a threshold but I also do think that it will kill PA to see Tex in the uni of the Red Sox or Yankees.

If he is going to be pursued by those teams in a big way, i could see PA going higher for him(ie over his threshold).

[geschinger]

I think PA is going to tell him that he wants Tex here and to get it done.

Unless MacPhail really wants Tex enough to pay full freight (which seems unlikely IMO) wouldn't that mean that he doesn't have complete control over baseball operations? And if he the owner is going to have that kind of influence over baseball decisions the future of the franchise is in much worse shape than it would be if MacPhail really did have"full and ultimate responsibility for player personnel and baseball decisions."

[Sports Guy]

Unless MacPhail really wants Tex enough to pay full freight (which seems unlikely IMO) wouldn't that mean that he doesn't have complete control over baseball operations? And if he the owner is going to have that kind of influence over baseball decisions the future of the franchise is in much worse shape than it would be if MacPhail really did have"full and ultimate responsibility for player personnel and baseball decisions."

Again, i feel Tex is going to be the exception to the rule.

[geschinger]

Again, i feel Tex is going to be the exception to the rule.

Not much of a rule if the exception likely takes away 20+% of one's resources.

[Sports Guy]

Not much of a rule if the exception likely takes away 20+% of one's resources.

I'm sorry but this just isn't that big of a deal...especially since the spike in attendance will help out a lot.

The Orioles can easily afford Tex and field a team that makes somewhere between 60-80 million and compete.

They just have to be creative and lock up their young players.

You have said you would go 18 million a year for Tex....Another 2-4 million a year isn't going to hurt us at all.

[geschinger]

I'm sorry but this just isn't that big of a deal...especially since the spike in attendance will help out a lot.

The Orioles can easily afford Tex and field a team that makes somewhere between 60-80 million and compete.

They just have to be creative and lock up their young players.

Sure, it's possible... It was possible for Texas to win win ARod. It just leaves little/no room for error.

[Sports Guy]

Sure, it's possible... It was possible for Texas to win win ARod. It just leaves little/no room for error.

Put it this way...I think we could win with a 80ish million dollar payroll...Adding Tex on top of that just makes us that much better.

And yes, it means this organization has to actually do things correctly...I know that may be a stretch.

[geschinger]

And yes, it means this organization has to actually do things correctly

and be incredibly lucky...

I know that may be a stretch.

[Flosman]

No...I am guessing you feel he was rushed because he didn't perform well up here...That you feel he needed more development time, time to work on mechanics, etc....

Bingo!!!!! Yes he was rushed and it is what the O's have done for years. A pitcher that has bad mechanics and can't even repeat the bad mechanics is not ready for any role in the big leagues. I think AM is trying to change this but the proof will not be seen until the guys at AA get to the bigs.

On another note you alway harp on maximizing value but moving a guy with Liz's stuff to the pen is not consistant with that. I agree that at his age he likely will never be a successfull ML SP long term but there is no rush to make the move yet IMO. Barring FA signings Liz is a SP to start next season IMO. When the younger guys push him out is when the move to the Pen will happen.

[DrungoHazewood]

Bingo!!!!! Yes he was rushed and it is what the O's have done for years. A pitcher that has bad mechanics and can't even repeat the bad mechanics is not ready for any role in the big leagues. I think AM is trying to change this but the proof will not be seen until the guys at AA get to the bigs.

On another note you alway harp on maximizing value but moving a guy with Liz's stuff to the pen is not consistant with that. I agree that at his age he likely will never be a successfull ML SP long term but there is no rush to make the move yet IMO. Barring FA signings Liz is a SP to start next season IMO. When the younger guys push him out is when the move to the Pen will happen.

Liz has all the markers of being a guy who could have a dramatic transformation when moved to the bullpen: wild, inconsistent mechanics, inconsistent secondary pitches, but a dominant fastball. He's the kind of guy who could scrap everything except two pitches, he could work only from the stretch to limit the mechanical things he has to fix. Lots of pitchers appear to be overwhelmed by trying to refine and optimize two different windups, three or four pitches, and pacing themselves for six or seven innings. Simplify everything and the world starts to make sense.

Liz is 25 and has been in the organization for 5+ years. How many Daniel Cabrera odysseys must we go through? If a pitcher has great stuff but hasn't figured out how to consistently be an adequate starter in five years, put him in the pen.

There are many more Bobby Jenks than there are Sandy Koufaxes.

[Roll Tide]

I think they should sign Burnett & Dempster. Trade Scott & a pitcher for the AA/AAA SS prospect we've all been waiting for. Try to trade Ramon & Mora. Not resign Millar & Payton. Take a run at Tex that may not end with him being a Oriole. Then having a decent back up plan if it doesn't work.

By the way ... Put me in the group that says the O's can afford Tex without hindering the rest of the team. Someone before me mentioned the difference between the 90 win/90 loss advertising thing. All I know is when I currently watch the Orioles I get sick by the number of times they show the "This is Birland" commercial. So there may be a considerable increase. Especially if they could pull in a decent beer vendor. Also we should forget that their is revenue in MASN's pockets for the Nationals. IMO Angelos & the Orioles could afford a payroll in the 115-135 million range if they wanted to. Remember these are the same owners who claim to be losing money yet wont open their books.

[wildcard]

Liz has all the markers of being a guy who could have a dramatic transformation when moved to the bullpen: wild, inconsistent mechanics, inconsistent secondary pitches, but a dominant fastball. He's the kind of guy who could scrap everything except two pitches, he could work only from the stretch to limit the mechanical things he has to fix. Lots of pitchers appear to be overwhelmed by trying to refine and optimize two different windups, three or four pitches, and pacing themselves for six or seven innings. Simplify everything and the world starts to make sense.

Liz is 25 and has been in the organization for 5+ years. How many Daniel Cabrera odysseys must we go through? If a pitcher has great stuff but hasn't figured out how to consistently be an adequate starter in five years, put him in the pen.

There are many more Bobby Jenks than there are Sandy Koufaxes.

Jon, this makes no sense to me. Liz is a guy who did great at AA in 2007. The O's gave him 11 starts at AAA and then rushed him to the majors as a starter because they needed someone to fill a void in the rotation. Predictively, he struggles. At times he is not posed. He overthrows. Is not comfortable. Comes out of his delivery. All signs that he has been rushed.

So that makes him a reliever? How about giving the guy a chance to get his feet on the ground and allowing him to develop his talent?

I don't know if Liz will be a starter or a reliever but I think he deserves a chance to be judge when he is ready, not when he is rushed. Bring him to ST as a starter. Let him compete of a spot in the rotation. If he beats out the other guys then start him. If he doesn't make the rotation make a decision to put him the pen for a while or send him back to AAA to polish his skills as a starter.

I just don't think he has been given a fair shot yet. He wasn't ready to start in the majors after 11 starts at AAA. That is obvious. But that does not mean with some more development he will not be a starter in the future. The guy needs to be given time and a fair chance to develop.

[BedardisAce]

Frobby, you were going down a logical path, but you stopped.

Yes Peter will spend $100M when he has a contender and sees the revenue from the contender coming in. However, that is not now. Its may be 2 or 3 years away if then. So he is not going to spend it now.

If the O's added $22M for Tex they also have to spend another $18M on two veteran starters. There is no reason to do one without the other. Heck Tex probably will not come to Baltimore (should stop the sentence right here) unless the O's add a couple of starters. So there is $40M. Even if the O's subtract Payton, Millar, Ramon and DCab they will be close to $90M by adding Tex and the two starters. Angelos and MacPhail are not likely to make that kind of jump in salaries unless they feel the team will contend, which brings back the fans, which brings back the revenue.

Angelos has to make a leap of faith to sign Tex and two starters at this point. Faith that the pitching will be good enough to be contenders. Faith that the team will not collapse at the end of the year again. Faith that's not normal for either Angelos nor MacPhail.

That is just another reason why it is not likely to happen.

If we sign Tex to a 6 year deal, I would certainly hope we would be contenders at some point during that deal. You have to plan for the future and not always go year to year. SIgning Tex now would be 1 less thing we would have to do when we are closer to contention. And with his local ties, he may be the only superstar willing to come here at all. So lets not let this pass us by like everything else and operate under thd deer in headlights style anymore.

[Frobby]

I think PA is going to tell him that he wants Tex here and to get it done.

I do think PA will have a threshold but I also do think that it will kill PA to see Tex in the uni of the Red Sox or Yankees.

If he is going to be pursued by those teams in a big way, i could see PA going higher for him(ie over his threshold).

First of all, there's no sense in arguing about this. We will just wait and see what happens with Tex and you will either be proven right or wrong.

But second, I'm wondering what information you have that makes you think PA wants Tex so badly. Is this just old info from your job years ago in the Warehouse, or have you actually heard something more recently that makes you believe this?

It's just my opinion, but I will be absolutely shocked if Tex is an Oriole. In fact, I'll be pretty shocked if we aren't out of the bidding very early on. We might meet with Boras and put in a bid, but we won't be within $25 mm of what Tex signs for in terms of a total package. Like I said, just my opinion.