What if this is the next O's contending team?

[eddie83]

I can’t believe I am asking this but at what point would we consider them a contender? 

In playoff position at the trade deadline? Roughly 30 games left? 

Two weeks from now we might be 4 games under .500 and the dream is over. 

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't know why teams like the Yanks and Dodgers spend hundreds of $millions on free agents when they could just believe in each other. 

Not disagreeing with your point... but I do think you can leverage an us against the world mentality a little easier in a 60 game sprint where 8 teams make the playoffs. 

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I can’t believe I am asking this but at what point would we consider them a contender? 

In playoff position at the trade deadline? Roughly 30 games left? 

Two weeks from now we might be 4 games under .500 and the dream is over. 

Three weeks ago I said I thought the Orioles were a 17-win team.  Now that they're 5-3 in eight games I think they end up at (52*(17/60))+5 = 20 wins.  To make the playoffs they need to win about 30 or so.

I'd say they'd have to be about 20-10 through 30 games before I really think they have a chance.

[eddie83]

I’ll say this. The entire topic about being a contender reminds me of the NFL. 

The two sports are impossible to compare, not like there is a MiL team in football but the 16 game season creates teams being in the race deeper into the season. It’s not the great “NFL competitive balance” that is promoted by so many but it’s the limited number of games. 

I mean look at the NBA and NHL and the number of mediocre and lesser teams that hang around playoff contention all year. Have only 5 teams in each conference making the playoffs and even in an 82 game season that dream is gone.

Its amazing when you decrease games and increase playoff teams what happens. 

[Ruzious]

20 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I can’t believe I am asking this but at what point would we consider them a contender? 

In playoff position at the trade deadline? Roughly 30 games left? 

Two weeks from now we might be 4 games under .500 and the dream is over. 

If they lose the Marlins series, it's over right there, so I'm not going to think past that series until that series is over.  At that point, we'll have played 12 games - or one fifth of what's planned to be the regular season.  Too soon.      

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Three weeks ago I said I thought the Orioles were a 17-win team.  Now that they're 5-3 in eight games I think they end up at (52*(17/60))+5 = 20 wins.  To make the playoffs they need to win about 30 or so.

I'd say they'd have to be about 20-10 through 30 games before I really think they have a chance.

31-29 probably gets a team to the playoffs.  They don't have to go 20-10 to win 31.

[Enjoy Terror]

37 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I can’t believe I am asking this but at what point would we consider them a contender? 

It’s not 15% of the way through the season,  I know that much. I don’t think there’s a magic number but I do think that they are playing above their head right now.

I also don’t think Lil Yaz is the best player in baseball.

[eddie83]

15 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

If they lose the Marlins series, it's over right there, so I'm not going to think past that series until that series is over.  At that point, we'll have played 12 games - or one fifth of what's planned to be the regular season.  Too soon.      

Of course it’s way too soon. Just having a little fun. Like I said in 2 weeks we may be under .500 and headed towards 40 losses. 

[Just Regular]

I'm working on enjoying the moment but these wins are feeling a little bit Pyrrhic, as the risk of missing a shot at one more rare talent for the next good team's core group increases.

I took a little comfort this weekend in that entering 1989 - with today's perspective I might have looked for a McDonald bookend, then we went and did all that winning and only got...Mike Mussina (but not Chipper Jones).

It isn't that I want the team to lose, it is more that this team very likely ought to lose.  In 162, they would surely earn X for the peak Rutschman teams, but the circumstances of 2020 might conspire to block the org from having what it "deserves".

But hey, if we can sweep the Rays, the Pirates can sweep the Twins, right?

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

It’s not 15% of the way through the season,  I know that much. I don’t think there’s a magic number but I do think that they are playing above their head right now.

I also don’t think Lil Yaz is the best player in baseball.

I feel like I have lost my mind even bringing it up as a conversation/kidding around.

Imagine a 162 game season with 5 playoffs teams like normal. Would be 154 games left. Even as a joke nobody would bring it up.

[Moose Milligan]

It's still way too soon to be talking like this but it's still fun.

Maybe it's a perfect storm for a team like the Orioles to get into an expanded playoff format and make some noise.  And with the way the schedule is set up, it seems like it could be possible.  The Marlins were bad to begin with, now they're having a hard time to field a team.  We should be able to beat up on them, but so will everyone else.  Boston doesn't look good, despite having some good offensive weapons.  

So...In the words of Lou Brown, maybe we can "hang around for a while and see if we can give 'em all a nice big $#*%burger to eat!"

[Roll Tide]

43 minutes ago, wildcard said:

31-29 probably gets a team to the playoffs.  They don't have to go 20-10 to win 31.

This is not a contending team...Don't be fooled by a good start. The only problem is they may be able to hang around with the real Cobb and veteran performances by Milone, and LeBlanc might prevent them from being terrible

[Enjoy Terror]

I'm hopeful that this is a short enough sprint into a really wide playoff net that the marathon of a normal baseball season won't be able to pick out the flukes quickly enough. After that point, you just need to be hot at the right time.

[HowAboutThat]

I just reviewed the 2005 oriole season. After 72 games they were 42-30. After that, they started faltering and they only won 32 more games the whole season.

However, that illustrates that if a team starts hot, and every player is able to play to his maximum ability for a time, it is possible. After all, the best team ever playing the worst team ever only wins one game at a time, and all that extra talent and ability is wasted. We don’t have to be the best,We just have to cover our flaws for 60 games.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

31-29 probably gets a team to the playoffs.  They don't have to go 20-10 to win 31.

It would certainly help.  Unless you think that roughly one month's worth of results is overwhelmingly more meaningful than all of our body knowledge about the Orioles and the rest of the league.

The 2019 Orioles had a 12-12 July and a stretch where they went 7-3 in 10 games.  They went 18-37 in August and September.