What if this is the next O's contending team?

[Sanfran327]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This is a much different team than the one from even a few weeks ago.

Not sure they still make it but they obviously have a chance with NY faltering so much and being so injured.  The other teams aren’t any better than the Os. 

You can expect another 20% churn by the time this team is good again, if not more. Rutchman, Diaz, Hays, and Mancini just for position players are all guys that could or should be on the roster in September 2021. Yes, two of those guys are currently on the IL, but not on the current, active roster. Pitching is in constant flux, so who knows what that will look like a year from now (though for the most part, probably similar to today). 

[Philip]

On 8/19/2020 at 9:34 AM, OFFNY said:

o

 

Reeling, but still alive ........ save for Alex Cobb's start on Monday, the starting rotation has been putting a lot of pressure on both the bullpen and the offense as of late.

 

(AUGUST 18th)

 

The Orioles' starting rotation has a 7.53 ERA over its last 7 games, and said pitchers have covered just 28.67 innings in that stretch.

They have 4 starts of 4 innings or less over the past 7 outings.

 

SOURCE: ) Steve Melewski

 

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/08/caleb-joseph-on-return-to-baltimore-plus-other-notes.html

 

o

Boy what a difference a couple weeks makes!

I am more excited than I have been set the oriole were 22-9 at the beginning of 2017

@Frobby Is correct, of course, this is not a great team, but so what? We’re doing pretty well considering what we have, and the Yankees are floundering, and we have been able to take a little bit of advantage.

Good times!
 

The big questions are, can the pitching continue? Are Akin and Kremer able to handle a team the second time, after the surprise has worn off?

And will Hyde play Davis, which will return an empty bat to the lineup? He indicated not, but we’ll see.

[survivedc]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it is safe to say that not all of the playoff teams in 2020 would be considered good by traditional metrics.

I’m almost just as interested in the converse:: are there any teams not slated to make it that would have the talent to turn it around over 162?

The Brewers and Angels stand out, the Nationals as well, though I think their division is tougher.

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

You can expect another 20% churn by the time this team is good again, if not more. Rutchman, Diaz, Hays, and Mancini just for position players are all guys that could or should be on the roster in September 2021. Yes, two of those guys are currently on the IL, but not on the current, active roster. Pitching is in constant flux, so who knows what that will look like a year from now (though for the most part, probably similar to today). 

I think we are starting to see what the pitching will look like.

 I still want to see them add Stroman this offseason but, assuming health, we are starting to see a lot of the arms that this organization will be leaning on long term.

[Sanfran327]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think we are starting to see what the pitching will look like.

 I still want to see them add Stroman this offseason but, assuming health, we are starting to see a lot of the arms that this organization will be leaning on long term.

Agree, except that we know there will be some roster movement. That's just the nature of pitching staffs. 

My issue is that when I look at our T25 prospects, most ETAs are 2022 or later for the pitchers that will make a meaningful contribution. So while our position player roster could be looking nice by this time next year, I think there is room for improvement with the pitchers. Just not sure who to predict, although I like your Stroman idea.

[Frobby]

On 8/2/2020 at 11:16 AM, Frobby said:

This is not our next contending team.   Could it fluke into a .500ish season and have a shot at making a 16-team playoff?    I wouldn’t rule that out completely, and I’d enjoy it, but I don’t think that makes them a contending team by my definition.    

But I am enjoying it.   A lot.    Just gotta avoid any big losing streaks and hang in there.   

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think we are starting to see what the pitching will look like.

 

SSS Alert!!!!

We have not seen enough of Akin, Kremer and Lopez to know too much.

Hahaha

[Sports Guy]

31 minutes ago, wildcard said:

SSS Alert!!!!

We have not seem enough of Akin, Kremer and Lopez to know too much.

Hahaha

Obviously...but I’m also talking about pitchers with actual talent, as opposed to the players you normally try to push upon us.

But the young arms that are coming up now are absolutely going to be around for a while...the reasoning for that is simple..because there is no choice now.  They have to see what they got.  Whether they are long term fixtures and will be good is a different discussion. 

[Moose Milligan]

45 minutes ago, wildcard said:

SSS Alert!!!!

We have not seem enough of Akin, Kremer and Lopez to know too much.

Hahaha

Look at wildcard, in on the fun!  He gets it, guys!  He really gets it!

[NCRaven]

I don't think that the 2020 O's are a good team.  But, they are better than almost anyone expected and they have gotten better as the "year" has gone on.  This is due mostly to the emergence of you talent promoted from within.  And, if you squint, you can at least see the beginnings of the next competitive O's team with some of the pieces that are here now.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

I don't think that the 2020 O's are a good team.  But, they are better than almost anyone expected and they have gotten better as the "year" has gone on.  This is due mostly to the emergence of you talent promoted from within.  And, if you squint, you can at least see the beginnings of the next competitive O's team with some of the pieces that are here now.

As I posted at the beginning of the short season, the best 60-game record the O’s had in any 60-game stretch in 2018-19 was 23-37.   I don’t mean the first 60 games, I mean any stretch of 60 consecutive games.    I’m still waiting to see if they exceed that in 2020, and if so, by how much.    If they are able to win, say, 26+ games, I’d say the probability is that this was simply a better baseball team than in the two previous seasons, rather than just a team that got lucky/hot over 60 games.

[Philip]

On 9/9/2020 at 12:57 PM, Sports Guy said:

I think we are starting to see what the pitching will look like.

 I still want to see them add Stroman this offseason but, assuming health, we are starting to see a lot of the arms that this organization will be leaning on long term.

Why Stroman? He will be expensive, and I don’t think we are ready to sign any big FA yet, although to be fair I don’t like any big FA contract. Find a couple of Tommy Milone types, bring up Zimmerman, wait for Lowther and Baumann to heal, and pay close attention to Grey-Rod and Hall.

[SteveA]

This could be the weekend our realistic chance to make the playoffs ends, or becomes real.

It hasn't been well publicized, but there will be no one game playoffs on Monday, September 28.   Ties will not be broken on the field as they traditionally are.

Tiebreakers will be used instead.   Head to head will be the primary tiebreaker, then division record.

Toronto has already clinched the head to head series against us.   So although they are 3.5 games ahead of us, and 3 in the loss column, it is really like they are 4 games ahead of us with just 17 or 18 to play.  Because if we tie, they finish ahead of us.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are 1.5 games ahead of us, just 1 in the loss column.  And we are 3-3 against them.   If we were to lose 3 of 4 or worse in this series, we would be down at least 3 in the loss column, but they would have won the season series, so essentially we would be 4 back with 13 or 14 to play.   Very tough to overcome.

So if we lose this series, we are probably out of contention.

If we split the series, we would still just be 1.5 back of them, 1 in the loss column, and we would be 5-5 against them.   So it would come down to division record.  We would be 13-16 in division, with 11 games left (5 vs TB, 3 vs Bos, 3 vs Tor).   The Yankees would be 15-15, with 10 left (7 vs Tor, 3 vs Bos).   So they would have that tiebreaker, even if we made up that extra game to them to force a tie.   With two weeks left in the season we'd probably ahve to lose TWO fewer games than the Yankees and finish ahead of them, unless we lost one more and they did better in NL games and worse in ALE games than we did.   But we'd certainly be in it.

If we win the series 3-1, we would be 0.5 games AHEAD of the Yankees, including 1 in the loss column, and we would ahve beaten them 6 out of 10 times.   So effectively we'd be TWO games up on them because of the tiebreak.

So this series is HUGE.   Lose it, and we are not only at least 3.5 games back of the Yankees with 2 weeks left, but they would have the tiebreak.   It would be pretty much over.

Split the series, and we would still have a shot, though a bit of a long shot.   A game back in the loss column but they would likely have the tiebreak on division record so we'd effectively have to make up 2 games in 2 weeks.  

Win the series, and we are ahead of them AND with the tiebreak, so so that half game lead would almost be like a 2 game lead with two weeks to go.

The stakes are high in the Bronx!

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Philip said:

Why Stroman? He will be expensive, and I don’t think we are ready to sign any big FA yet, although to be fair I don’t like any big FA contract. Find a couple of Tommy Milone types, bring up Zimmerman, wait for Lowther and Baumann to heal, and pay close attention to Grey-Rod and Hall.

Well, I think he will expensive but cheaper than he normally would be.

He eats innings, has good BB rates and keeps the ball on the ground.  

His K rate is just ok but he does a good job of missing bats.  

I wouldn’t go more than 4 guaranteed years though...not sure if that would be an issue or not but something around 4/75-90 stands a good chance of getting him imo.  With the rest of the team making so little, I don’t see the harm in signing him.

And yes, they may not be ready to contend next year but that doesn’t mean you don’t sign a guy a year too early.  

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I think he will expensive but cheaper than he normally would be.

He eats innings, has good BB rates and keeps the ball on the ground.  

His K rate is just ok but he does a good job of missing bats.  

I wouldn’t go more than 4 guaranteed years though...not sure if that would be an issue or not but something around 4/75-90 stands a good chance of getting him imo.  With the rest of the team making so little, I don’t see the harm in signing him.

And yes, they may not be ready to contend next year but that doesn’t mean you don’t sign a guy a year too early.  

But will we even need him? We still have Cobb for one more year, plus Means, Akin, Kremer, and then Pop, Lowther, Baumann, Zimmerman, and then Grey-Rod, Hall, Wells. That’s ten guys, though I know that the latter three probably won’t be ready for a debut at the start of the season. I’m leaving out guys like Fenter, as well as the pickups( Lopez, Fulmer, etc) that we’re expecting to turn into something. I know not all of them will turn out well, Pop is recovering from TJ, and Lowther(?)and Baumann are surgery risks, but it’s highly likely we can assemble five guys out of that pile( we already have four)

Im sure mike will sign some arms, but they won’t be top-line guys.