Guthrie for Hardy

[Stotle]

Are you saying that you think Guthrie is as good at the top of the rotation as Sabathia or Sheets, Zambrano, Dempster, Harden or Lilly, Carpenter, or Oswalt? That's a pretty good division of pitchers right there... The only one that Guts is truly better than is Lilly, and that's not even definite.

No, I'm saying you don't need to be as good as those guys to be a legit SP at the top of a rotation in that division. I has much more to do with the offenses you face than the pitchers on the other side of the field.

Plus, some of those arms are not front-end guys, and you could argue a handful aren't front-end guys in the AL.

[Fan4Life]

In terms of the big picture, why is a problem at shortstop such a big deal? Offense can be made up at another position, as we saw in left field. The Red Sox won the Series last year carrying Lugo's 65 OPS+. We have Guthrie for four more years.

I agree with this in general. I'm not necessarily saying Guthrie should be traded for a SS if it is available but moreso supporting that if Guthrie can be moved to fill a positional hole, I think you have to look at that (obviously depends on the who and for how long). I wouldn't trade Guthrie for Hardy without an extension.

[allstar1579]

I agree with this in general. I'm not necessarily saying Guthrie should be traded for a SS if it is available but moreso supporting that if Guthrie can be moved to fill a positional hole, I think you have to look at that (obviously depends on the who and for how long). I wouldn't trade Guthrie for Hardy without an extension.

What is more important, one of nine positional holes or one of five starting pitching holes. And then to a greater degree, what production do you need from that positional slot (keeping in mind there are more of them to produce more) to balance out the loss of Guthrie's pitching stats (keeping in mind he produced what Oswalt did).

[Sports Guy]

Pitching. No matter how many arms we have in the MiL, our weakness is pitching until we actually have good pitching at the MLB level.

With Tex as a possibility, Wieters coming up, Jones and Markakis continuing to improve, I think our offense could potentially offset a weak hitting SS as long as he is great defensively -- and as long as we have stout pitching.

Pitching is our strength in the minors...I get the idea that it is unproven but we have no IF prospects that are on the horizon whatsoever, especially in the MI.

We should be set in the OF and catcher...Outside of that, the entire IF is in huge doubt beyond 2009.

[Fan4Life]

What is more important, one of nine positional holes or one of five starting pitching holes. And then to a greater degree, what production do you need from that positional slot (keeping in mind there are more of them to produce more) to balance out the loss of Guthrie's pitching stats (keeping in mind he produced what Oswalt did).

We probably have 10 pitchers or more in the minor leagues that many of which will easily replace Guthrie by 2011. Who do we currently have in the minors to fill any of our infield positional holes that we have after 2009?

[El Gordo]

IF Guthrie is worth as much as some think, and IF Hardy isn't valued as much as he will be, and IF he agrees to an extension, and IF the O's MiL SP comes through like gangbusters in 2010, then it's a good trade. But four big IF's is fanatasy baseball territory IMO.:laughlol:

[Sanfran327]

Pitching is our strength in the minors...I get the idea that it is unproven but we have no IF prospects that are on the horizon whatsoever, especially in the MI.

We should be set in the OF and catcher...Outside of that, the entire IF is in huge doubt beyond 2009.

Another reason to try to get Tex and go after Blalock. If we can trade for Blalock and sign Tex, we could either trade some of the expiring contracts for a few more IF/SP prospects.

[El Gordo]

We probably have 10 pitchers or more in the minor leagues that many of which will easily replace Guthrie by 2011. Who do we currently have in the minors to fill any of our infield positional holes that we have after 2009?

Right, the way Olson, Liz, Cabrerra, Loewen, Main, Penn, Riley, etc. have all indicated they can.:rolleyestf:What do they say about counting chickens before they cross the road.?:laughlol:

[Sports Guy]

Another reason to try to get Tex and go after Blalock. If we can trade for Blalock and sign Tex, we could either trade some of the expiring contracts for a few more IF/SP prospects.

No thanks...No interest in Blalock whatsoever.

[Spoonless]

Let's assume that we can sign hardy for what i said...A deal of 4 years for around 40 million...5th year option.

So, if we know we can extend him, does it change your mind?

In short, yes.

It would break my heart to do so, but if you're getting those extra years out of Hardy, I think it's got to be done. It's hard to look past Guthrie as a person and just at the business aspect of things. Guthrie plays hard, always wants the ball, and seems to be a genuine stand-up guy. He's got the right attitude that we need to have going forward, and it'd certainly be hard to let him go.

Also, if you make this deal I think you have to get a veteran starter to anchor the rotation, or rely on DCab to go eat innings again. I wouldn't really want to rely on 5 of our young starters every night. it's not that I don't think they'll be any good, it's that I don't think that they'll go deep into games consistently enough, and we'll end up wearing out our bullpen fast.

[allstar1579]

We probably have 10 pitchers or more in the minor leagues that many of which will easily replace Guthrie by 2011. Who do we currently have in the minors to fill any of our infield positional holes that we have after 2009?

By 2011, Hardy will be 30, and even if he signs a 4 year extension coming up on a FA year. Not to mention you are taking unproven prospects and projecting them to be no. 1 starters. Liz, Olson, Penn, all guys projected much like our stud prospects are now. It's far from an exact science. Are you willing to gamble 20% of our starting pitching for 13% of our lineup?

[wildbillhiccup]

Might be a lot, but I think he's probably better than his away stats might indicate. Lots of players are better at home than on the road, and even though Coors is a unique case, I think the friendly confines of Oriole Park would suit him just fine.

Plus, I'm in love with the idea of potentially having five of the best players in the AL with Roberts, Markakis, Jones, Holiday, and Wieters.

He'd still hit for avg, but the power wouldn't be there. I thinky he'd be lucky to crack 30 hrs outside of Coors. Probably closer to someone like Markakis (solid, but not a masher) then the MVP type player he's been over the last few seasons.

[Sanfran327]

He'd still hit for avg, but the power wouldn't be there. I thinky he'd be lucky to crack 30 hrs outside of Coors. Probably closer to someone like Markakis (solid, but not a masher) then the MVP type player he's been over the last few seasons.

IDK... Coors is pretty humongus compared to OPACY. That's got to count for something.

If people were predicting 50 HRs for Belle, surely you can expect 30 from Holiday.

[ShoelesJoe]

Guthrie will start to be expensive in the next few years and he will be on the wrong side of 30.

Bingo. The reason you put Guthrie's name out there is because he's not as young as he appears to be. Most people think because he's only been around for a couple seasons he's got lots of career left, but in reality that's probably not the case. His trade value right now is much higher than his long term value to the team is, so if the deals are out there you have to pull the trigger.

Look at it this way: what's more valuable -- three years of Guthrie or eight/ten years of Hardy? That's a no brainer.

[allstar1579]

Bingo. The reason you put Guthrie's name out there is because he's not as young as he appears to be. Most people think because he's only been around for a couple seasons he's got lots of career left, but in reality that's probably not the case. His trade value right now is much higher than his long term value to the team is, so if the deals are out there you have to pull the trigger.

Look at it this way: what's more valuable -- three years of Guthrie or eight/ten years of Hardy? That's a no brainer.

Guthrie is older than he should be because of his mission, but he also has a few years less wear and tear on his pitching arm. So by that theory, he should be pitching as well at 35 as other pitchers will at 32. The difference is that Guthrie is already under our control at a modest price, while Hardy is not, and will be coming up on FA in 2 years, and we can not force him to sign an extension, so what if he says no? We can think and speculate that all it takes is money and we throw it at him until he says yes, but what if yes means $20 mil a year because he doesn't want to be in Baltimore?