What’s your early over/under on 67.5 wins in 2021?

[jamalshw]

I voted over, but am not confident about that vote at all. I think we end up somewhere in the upper-60s, maybe getting up to 70, but would not be surprised with something like 65 wins either.

Overall, I went over in hopes that we start seeing more and more youngsters coming up and performing. I'm hopeful we see less starts from random fill-ins like Milone, Eshleman, Leblanc, Wojo, etc. and more from guys who could be long-term pieces. While there will be some growing pains, I'm hoping with Means, Akin, and Kremer--along with others--we see more quality starting pitching. The bullpen is also exciting with a number of quality youngsters.

Offensively, I'm concerned how Mancini looks and there are certainly still issues, but higher upside guys should filter their way onto the roster as well. We are on the upswing of the rebuild (though still rather close to the bottom), so I voted for improvement. The issue, however, is I think the 2020 team overachieved a bit.

[Just Regular]

I just landed on the 2019 Baumann = 2002 Bedard thing so now I guess the next dot to connect is he is maybe the individual with the most variance bearing on this specific question.

Is he out for the year, or a Bedard-whose-arm-never-exploded Guy for 2021?  At SP4, that could be the delta between a 2-win rookie (Akin and Kremer's proverbial bigger billy goat brother) and another 20-25 starts going to the likely to be sub-replacement output from the Milone/LeBlanc well-spotted slow pitch shelf.