Trade Bait 2021

[Ruzious]

On 6/12/2021 at 3:28 PM, bpilktree said:

His defensive war is 16th among qualified shortstops which isn’t great but he has committed only 3 errors which is near the best in baseball.  Andrus is dead last in defensive War and committed 9 errors.  Galvis doesn’t have the best range but he doesn’t make errors to balls he gets too.  He is still a big upgrade for them and also would not cost much in salary.  

Galvis' lack of a strong arm seems like a big negative for a SS - especially coupled with below average range.  I'm in the camp that believes he has very little trade value.  

[Sports Guy]

Brewed just traded for first baseman Rowdy Tellez from Toronto.  
 

Tellez has been very up and down but does have upside.  It could prevent them from getting into the bidding for Trey.

[Just Regular]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Brewed just traded for first baseman Rowdy Tellez from Toronto.  
 

Tellez has been very up and down but does have upside.  It could prevent them from getting into the bidding for Trey.

This kind of reminds me of when Duquette got Trumbo early so as not to be over a barrel with Davis.   Tellez could flop, but Brewers probably were the only roster outside AL East where the Mancini/Aguilar/Cron/Tellez type guy was more of a need than the Red Sox/Rays have.

[Matt Bennett]

Sell Trades in the Elias Era:

1. Dylan Bundy - 27 year old top prospect disappointment with 2 years of control left

2. Jonathan Villar - 29 year old sell high but salary dump trade with 1 year of control left

3. Andrew Cashner - clear veteran stopgap rental, 2 months of control left

4. Richard Belier - 33 year old crafty middle reliever with 2.5 years of control left

5. Miguel Castro - 25 year old middle reliever with lively arm and 2.5 years of control left

6. Mychal Givens - 30 year old pricey back end reliever with 1.5 years of control left

7. Tommy Milone - clear veteran stopgap rental with 2 months of control left

8. Jose Iglesias - a fine but replaceable player, sell high with 1 year of control left

9. Alex Cobb - salary dump of a bust of a contract, 1 year left of control

So Elias hasn't traded anyone of value that hasn't hit arbitration at least once. I'm not saying he isn't willing to, but you would think the cost-cutting and tearing down would reduce as we get into the 3rd and 4th years of the Elias rebuild. The young players with talent and proven results at the big league level would be exactly the players you would want to accumulate.

Franco, Harvey, and Valaika will be lucky to be on the roster come September. Galvis wouldn't get anything really even healthy but he would probably be a smart resign as it doesn't look like any of the Richie Martin, Cadyn Grenier, Joey Ortiz, Terin Vavra, Mason McCoy crowd will be beating down the MLB door from AAA by the end of the season. Severino, Armstrong, Plutko, and Jorge Lopez (although I'm sure he would do well in a bullpen role) look like non-tenders. It wouldn't make much sense to sell a recovering Santander.

John Means, Paul Fry, and Tanner Scott are all about to hit arbitration but trading any of them would be the most control Elias has given up. And none of their value is exactly high right now. Mancini has a good bat but is not a GREAT player and means more to the franchise than any middling prospect he would bring back.

It may be disappointing but my prediction is that no-one of significance will be traded at the deadline.

[spiritof66]

3 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

Sell Trades in the Elias Era:

1. Dylan Bundy - 27 year old top prospect disappointment with 2 years of control left

2. Jonathan Villar - 29 year old sell high but salary dump trade with 1 year of control left

3. Andrew Cashner - clear veteran stopgap rental, 2 months of control left

4. Richard Belier - 33 year old crafty middle reliever with 2.5 years of control left

5. Miguel Castro - 25 year old middle reliever with lively arm and 2.5 years of control left

6. Mychal Givens - 30 year old pricey back end reliever with 1.5 years of control left

7. Tommy Milone - clear veteran stopgap rental with 2 months of control left

8. Jose Iglesias - a fine but replaceable player, sell high with 1 year of control left

9. Alex Cobb - salary dump of a bust of a contract, 1 year left of control

So Elias hasn't traded anyone of value that hasn't hit arbitration at least once. I'm not saying he isn't willing to, but you would think the cost-cutting and tearing down would reduce as we get into the 3rd and 4th years of the Elias rebuild. The young players with talent and proven results at the big league level would be exactly the players you would want to accumulate.

Franco, Harvey, and Valaika will be lucky to be on the roster come September. Galvis wouldn't get anything really even healthy but he would probably be a smart resign as it doesn't look like any of the Richie Martin, Cadyn Grenier, Joey Ortiz, Terin Vavra, Mason McCoy crowd will be beating down the MLB door from AAA by the end of the season. Severino, Armstrong, Plutko, and Jorge Lopez (although I'm sure he would do well in a bullpen role) look like non-tenders. It wouldn't make much sense to sell a recovering Santander.

John Means, Paul Fry, and Tanner Scott are all about to hit arbitration but trading any of them would be the most control Elias has given up. And none of their value is exactly high right now. Mancini has a good bat but is not a GREAT player and means more to the franchise than any middling prospect he would bring back.

It may be disappointing but my prediction is that no-one of significance will be traded at the deadline.

I wouldn't be too disappointed if there were no significant trades. I just don't think there's much trade value there, outside of the guys I think should be retained (Mullins, Hays, Mountcastle, Means, Scott, Tate, some other young pitchers). I agree with you on Mancini. Santander might have had value if he he'd had a strong or even solid year, but I think it's too late for that -- maybe in the off-season. I could see Fry bringing back something of value from a contender desperate for a LHed reliever. 

I agree, and think I've said before, that Galvis might be back next year, probably at a similar salary ($1.5 mm). He's been much better than I had expected, but planning on making a 32-year-old with limited range the regular SS would tell us something about the team's aspirations for improvement in 2022.

[sportsfan8703]

Good points. I think Mancini is dealt though. One, he just has to. Two, we have a glut of OF and Nevin, that can rotate through DH. Fry and Sulser could go. 
 

I think it’s going to be a pretty boring deadline for us. The Galvis injury hurt a sure fire trade. Means was going to bring some serious rumors. 

[Roll Tide]

If Means can get a start or two he could be dealt but it seems to me that we’d be better off waiting until the offseason now

[maybenxtyr]

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

If Means can get a start or two he could be dealt but it seems to me that we’d be better off waiting until the offseason now

I think of they end up dealing Means then the window for competing will probably be 2023 or '24. Might be that far off anyways.

[interloper]

On 7/7/2021 at 9:56 AM, Matt Bennett said:

Sell Trades in the Elias Era:

1. Dylan Bundy - 27 year old top prospect disappointment with 2 years of control left

2. Jonathan Villar - 29 year old sell high but salary dump trade with 1 year of control left

3. Andrew Cashner - clear veteran stopgap rental, 2 months of control left

4. Richard Belier - 33 year old crafty middle reliever with 2.5 years of control left

5. Miguel Castro - 25 year old middle reliever with lively arm and 2.5 years of control left

6. Mychal Givens - 30 year old pricey back end reliever with 1.5 years of control left

7. Tommy Milone - clear veteran stopgap rental with 2 months of control left

8. Jose Iglesias - a fine but replaceable player, sell high with 1 year of control left

9. Alex Cobb - salary dump of a bust of a contract, 1 year left of control

So Elias hasn't traded anyone of value that hasn't hit arbitration at least once. I'm not saying he isn't willing to, but you would think the cost-cutting and tearing down would reduce as we get into the 3rd and 4th years of the Elias rebuild. The young players with talent and proven results at the big league level would be exactly the players you would want to accumulate.

Franco, Harvey, and Valaika will be lucky to be on the roster come September. Galvis wouldn't get anything really even healthy but he would probably be a smart resign as it doesn't look like any of the Richie Martin, Cadyn Grenier, Joey Ortiz, Terin Vavra, Mason McCoy crowd will be beating down the MLB door from AAA by the end of the season. Severino, Armstrong, Plutko, and Jorge Lopez (although I'm sure he would do well in a bullpen role) look like non-tenders. It wouldn't make much sense to sell a recovering Santander.

John Means, Paul Fry, and Tanner Scott are all about to hit arbitration but trading any of them would be the most control Elias has given up. And none of their value is exactly high right now. Mancini has a good bat but is not a GREAT player and means more to the franchise than any middling prospect he would bring back.

It may be disappointing but my prediction is that no-one of significance will be traded at the deadline.

Good post. It's a tough deadline to call right now for Elias based on his history so far. I do think Mancini could potentially bring back more than a middling prospect considering both that teams might be desperate for a MOO bat and Elias' ask will be high. 

That said, I could see Elias dealing Means with these recurrent shoulder issues and cleaning up on that trade. It would suck a lot, but hey. 

[byrdz]

On 7/7/2021 at 6:56 AM, Matt Bennett said:

3. Andrew Cashner - clear veteran stopgap rental, 2 months of control left

[Legend_Of_Joey]

I wonder if the minors have anyone that will be traded. While pitching throughout seems to be a bit of a surplus, along with outfield and middle infield (or utility players, if you talk about how they are being used…), a package of 2 could net someone of value. 

[Aristotelian]

I think Elias should listen to offers on Mancini and Santander. Problem is I don't think other teams will give up a lot for either one. I would definitely be looking to trade either one for a legit prospect though.

[foxfield]

I think the people we would most like to trade have played themselves out of value or have health issues.  I do not see anything significant before the deadline.

[maybenxtyr]

32 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think the people we would most like to trade have played themselves out of value or have health issues.  I do not see anything significant before the deadline.

I agree. I think it will be a pretty quiet deadline.

[Sports Guy]

Yea, we will see.  The most likely guys to be traded are members of the pen and Mancini.  Those guys have struggled as of late but they have also been good for a lot of the year and have track records of being good.  There are 15 games left before the deadline, so if any of them start to get hot and play well, the value will be right back.

I also think we overestimate how much value is lost by a bad/mediocre  stretch of games.  These guys all have track records and been around for a while.  Teams know what they are.