Rebuild mode or Sell mode?

[Philip]

49 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I mean Charlie Morton got $15m. Drew Smyly got $11m. Brett Anderson, Chase Anderson, Garrett Richards? Taijuan Walker? Spending $15 million for those guys? 
http://www.espn.com/mlb/freeagents/_/position/sp

What are Simmons and Gregorious going to demand? 

Your three additions will add $20-$30 million to the payroll and the prospect cost of getting a 3B. I'm in favor of all of it, but only if we think the guys we are adding are here for the beginning of our playoff run. I'm not in favor of spending that money in hopes of trading them before a playoff run. That's throwing a ton of money into mediocrity with the hope that someone bails us out with prospects on the back end.

If I'm spending, it's with the goal of winning a lot. Not for winning a little.

Although I agree with your point, sports guy is correct. We could have signed Charlie Morton for nothing before the Astros did, but Dan chose not to. Morton is only expensive today because he’s been so incredibly successful the last few years. But we could have gotten him very cheap, and I screamed when Dan declined to do so. Dan constantly ignored good free agents, and We can be glad those days are over with.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Philip

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course who you sign or trade for matters.  No one has said differently.  I hav already stated a number of times that I’m not making big moves for a long term SS for at least a year, for example.

But this idea that they have to keep losing so they can rebuild is a joke.  It’s nothing but a lie and the fans are falling for it.  It’s nothing more than an excuse to be cheap. 

You don't need 4+ years of top 4 draft picks to rebuild.

[LookinUp]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m on your side of this debate.   However, you do have to consider what impact there is on the fan base of fielding a non-competitive team several years running vs. fielding a losing but respectable team several years running.  I don’t think the answer to that question is obvious one way or the other. 

In 2021, we're 1-2 years away from hoping to really make a run. I don't think a few more wins now will move the fans in a meaningful way unless we make a real splash, like for Trevor Bauer, which I think is out of the question.

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But this idea that they have to keep losing so they can rebuild is a joke.  It’s nothing but a lie and the fans are falling for it.  It’s nothing more than an excuse to be cheap. 

I concede they could spend more now, and always, and win somewhat more. I just don't think it's wise for a team in our market position without it fitting into a plan to be competitive. I'm not for buying a few more wins this year.

24 minutes ago, Philip said:

Although I agree with your point, sports guy is correct. We could have signed Charlie Morton for nothing before the Astros did, but Dan chose not to. Morton is only expensive today because he’s been so incredibly successful the last few years. But we could have gotten him very cheap, and I screamed when Dan declined to do so. Dan constantly ignored good free agents, and We can be glad those days are over with.

Nobody is arguing we shouldn't be bringing in guys that we think/hope can out perform their price tag. We'd all be supportive of such signings, but at what price? Look at the SPs in the free agent market. Only a few under 30. I'm sure there are others who are unranked too, but they'd be dirt cheap.

[Sports Guy]

The guy I would be going after if I were the Os is German Marquez.  Not sure if the Rockies would deal him but I would be inquiring and would take on the rest of Desmond’s contract (owed 11M between trade bonus, salary and buyout) to make the deal happen.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

In 2021, we're 1-2 years away from hoping to really make a run.

 

Or Elias states that wins don't matter in 2022 and we have another year of slow rolling promotions and waiver wire regulars.

 

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The guy I would be going after if I were the Os is German Marquez.  Not sure if the Rockies would deal him but I would be inquiring and would take on the rest of Desmond’s contract (owed 11M between trade bonus, salary and buyout) to make the deal happen.

Is there any reason to think he's available? This is the type of deal the O's almost certainly won't do, but that which I could agree we should consider.

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Or Elias states that wins don't matter in 2022 and we have another year of slow rolling promotions and waiver wire regulars.

 

I don't know. Barring injury or poor performance, by 2022 we should have Means, Rodriguez, Hall, Lowther, Kremer, Akin, Baumann, Mountcastle, Rutschman, Diaz, Hays,  Harvey, Scott, Mullins (as 4th OF), Mancini and Santander. That's 16 (should be) solid or better contributors and I didn't even look critically at other bullpen guys/backup catcher/UIF types that are likely in house. 

That's a team that could make a run with a few additions.

It's why I'm not a pure "no" on spending now. I just want that spending to fit into the plan. Tell me That Justin Turner has 2-3 good years left in him and I'm ok with it (I haven't looked). The A's FA middle infielders. Taijuan Walker. There are names, but are they good enough to be real contributors on that next good team? If not, they're wasted money on a bad team, IMO.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Is there any reason to think he's available? This is the type of deal the O's almost certainly won't do, but that which I could agree we should consider.

I don't know. Barring injury or poor performance, by 2022 we should have Means, Rodriguez, Hall, Lowther, Kremer, Akin, Baumann, Mountcastle, Rutschman, Diaz, Hays,  Harvey, Scott, Mullins (as 4th OF), Mancini and Santander. That's 16 (should be) solid or better contributors and I didn't even look critically at other bullpen guys/backup catcher/UIF types that are likely in house. 

That's a team that could make a run with a few additions.

It's why I'm not a pure "no" on spending now. I just want that spending to fit into the plan. Tell me That Justin Turner has 2-3 good years left in him and I'm ok with it (I haven't looked). The A's FA middle infielders. Taijuan Walker. There are names, but are they good enough to be real contributors on that next good team? If not, they're wasted money on a bad team, IMO.

Who knows?  Teams are in financial trouble (or at least they say they are) and trading for him and adding in Desmonds salary could be a way to convince them to move him.

They also have a poor farm system that lacks both depth and talent.  The Os can help with that.

Hes an ideal trade candidate for the Os.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The guy I would be going after if I were the Os is German Marquez.  Not sure if the Rockies would deal him but I would be inquiring and would take on the rest of Desmond’s contract (owed 11M between trade bonus, salary and buyout) to make the deal happen.

While this is a very intriguing idea from our end, I'm not sure that the Rockies would be interested in taking a lesser haul for an established #2/3 SP in his mid-20s with 4 years of reasonably priced control left just to unload Desmond's remaining $11 million, even with the revenue issues created by the Coronavirus situation. My guess is that they would want a return in the same ballpark as what the Rays got from SD for Blake Snell (whether or not they could find such an offer is a different matter).

That said, I would absolutely be on the phone with the Rockies FO to discuss the subject if I was Elias and ownership was open to adding a bit of payroll now to put us in a better position to compete in 2022 and beyond.

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

While this is a very intriguing idea from our end, I'm not sure that the Rockies would be interested in taking a lesser haul for an established #2/3 SP in his mid-20s with 4 years of reasonably priced control left just to unload Desmond's remaining $11 million, even with the revenue issues created by the Coronavirus situation. My guess is that they would want a return in the same ballpark as what the Rays got from SD for Blake Snell (whether or not they could find such an offer is a different matter).

That said, I would absolutely be on the phone with the Rockies FO to discuss the subject if I was Elias and ownership was open to adding a bit of payroll now to put us in a better position to compete in 2022 and beyond.

Well, I will say this..everyone is on the table for Marquez except GRod, Adley and Kjerstad.  I’m discussing everyone else in the organization. It will vary in degrees of what I’m willing to offer if we take on the Desmond money or just a straight deal for Marquez.

My guess is that we could put something together, headlined by Hall or Mountcastle, that Colorado would do.

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I will say this..everyone is on the table for Marquez except GRod, Adley and Kjerstad.  I’m discussing everyone else in the organization. It will vary in degrees of what I’m willing to offer if we take on the Desmond money or just a straight deal for Marquez.

My guess is that we could put something together, headlined by Hall or Mountcastle, that Colorado would do.

 

I would personally include Mountcastle in my "off the table" column along with the other 3 guys you mentioned, but I would be open to a package built around Hall since I'd be pretty satisfied with Hall if he developed into what Marquez already is and wouldn't be particularly shocked if he never even reached that level of success. 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I would personally include Mountcastle in my "off the table" column along with the other 3 guys you mentioned, but I would be open to a package built around Hall since I'd be pretty satisfied with Hall if he developed into what Marquez already is and wouldn't be particularly shocked if he never even reached that level of success. 

I can see that.  It’s a tough call for me on Mountcastle or Hall.  I like the upside of Hall more but he’s also less likely to reach his upside than Mountcastle is.  Gun to my head, I probably prefer to trade Hall too.

[Just Regular]

The fun of the Rockies is they are like the last few outliers to the prevailing groupthink.   Is Zac Veen already the cornerstone of the next good team?  Probably.

Do they think so?  Nope.

I doubt Marquez could be pried from their cold, contending aspiring fingers on any reasonable terms anytime soon, but I'd be happy to cook up another Mychal Givens this July for Arenado and Story's last ride together.   Mancini could be a good fit for them if he's himself, and I think we have three catchers better than their best for '21.

Marquez might profile as a Verlander/Cole/Greinke-ish July target come 2022 if the sun shines sweetly on the next 18 months and we can/should trade our 7/11/15/20 prospects to bolster Adley Run 1 of 6.

How much past Means and Mancini are we giving for Veen tonight?   Brendan Rodgers, two months Yusniel's elder and unable to leapfrog McMahon/Hampson so far, may be a Never Came True like Francisco Mejia but I'd be doing cartwheels and backflips to give him a Villar-ish 600 unencumbered PA to see.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I can see that.  It’s a tough call for me on Mountcastle or Hall.  I like the upside of Hall more but he’s also less likely to reach his upside than Mountcastle is.  Gun to my head, I probably prefer to trade Hall too.

If both were ready to contribute meaningfully at the big league level, it would probably be a tougher call for me, but Mountcastle looks like he will be a major everyday contributor in the middle of our lineup starting this year while Hall is still probably 1.5 - 2 years away from an extended look in the rotation, and that assumes he refines his control and finds success in the upper minors during that time period.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Or Elias states that wins don't matter in 2022 and we have another year of slow rolling promotions and waiver wire regulars.

 

I think that will be a much harder sell than in 2021.    And, I think the team will naturally be getting ready to compete by then anyway.    

I’m really looking forward to the 2021 season.   We still have a number of holes to fill but more of the spots are getting filled by players who have talent and just need to gain experience.    This year will be about individual growth and performance for me.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think that will be a much harder sell than in 2021.    And, I think the team will naturally be getting ready to compete by then anyway.    

I’m really looking forward to the 2021 season.   We still have a number of holes to fill but more of the spots are getting filled by players who have talent and just need to gain experience.    This year will be about individual growth and performance for me.   
 

I'm not saying it will happen, just we haven't heard anything to preclude it from happening.  It isn't as if the local media will hold anyone accountable. 

They can blame the labor uncertainty.