Swing Decisions, Monthly

[Baltimorecuse]

18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

June 2023 - BAL ranked 25th MLB-wide.    A "no Ryan Mountcastle month" didn't move the team needle as Gunnar doing adjustments and Adley having a .293 OBP month posted league average results in this discipline.   

First half of the year on the infield, Frazier has qualified each month, and Mateo/Urias just 1 out of 6, including both missing qualification this past month.

Now we enter the Westburg July, and we'll see how his training interacts with a diet of MLB pitches, and pushes veterans to even smaller roles.     

Player, and June percentile among MLB bats, Qualified, in Chase Rate (parens are April-May-June results):

A. Hicks, 76        (xx-xx-76)

Gunnar, 51         (95-93-51)

Adley, 47            (88-92-47)

Frazier, 28          (44-36-28)

Hays, 26             (54-39-26)

Santander, 17     (7-10-17)

JUNE Team Stats, Fangraphs rates the BAL Bats 16th, and the BAL Arms 14th in fWAR, so raise your hand if you had the Mike Elias Talent Mix's pitchers outplaying the hitters in the middle of 2023.

[Baltimorecuse]

We were winning above our stat line in May but it has caught up with us in June.

Elias has a plan.  The future looks better than anytime in the past 25 years as far as I can see.  

Our jackrabbit start has everyone thinking we arrived.  We'll see but I think we'll need more pitching to bark with the biggest dogs.  

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

We were winning above our stat line in May but it has caught up with us in June.

Elias has a plan.  The future looks better than anytime in the past 25 years as far as I can see.  

Our jackrabbit start has everyone thinking we arrived.  We'll see but I think we'll need more pitching to bark with the biggest dogs.  

Folks here love to tout the O's prospects.

Have you look at that highly regarded top 10 prospect list?

Tony's top 10 has one pitcher on it, at 10, and he's got some red flags.

Elias had the ability to add some quality pitching before this season, heck he could have done it before last season. 

Being able to identify a problem does not, in and of itself, solve that problem.

[Baltimorecuse]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Folks here love to tout the O's prospects.

Have you look at that highly regarded top 10 prospect list?

Tony's top 10 has one pitcher on it, at 10, and he's got some red flags.

Elias had the ability to add some quality pitching before this season, heck he could have done it before last season. 

Being able to identify a problem does not, in and of itself, solve that problem.

Boston spent a fortune on pitchers.  They are a game under .500.  I wouldn't trade our prospects for pitching.  Maybe we can buy some arms.

[Just Regular]

July 2023 - BAL ranked 13th MLB-wide, helped by the 1st month of Cowser-Westburg (not that they hit any) joining Adley-Gunnar off the SigBot production line.

With injuries and the All-Star break, only 4 Bats actually qualified, so I ran July at 60 PA to catch meaningful part-time players.

Player, and July percentile among MLB bats, 60 PA, in Chase Rate (parens are April-May-June-July results):

Gunnar, 91         (95-93-51-91)

Cowser, 89        (xx-xx-xx-89)

Frazier, 89          (44-36-28-89)          Numbers definitely tell a story Frazier changed modes last month.

A. Hicks, 87        (xx-xx-76-87)

Adley, 55            (88-92-47-55)

Westburg, 53     (xx-xx-xx-53)

O'Hearn, 34       (xx-xx-xx-34)            O'Hearn's 1st Half part months had strong eye, so this 1st report misleading.   He may be seeing beach balls and riding a heater.     YTD Frazier, O'Hearn and Urias all have middle of pack type numbers at this skill.

Santander, 30     (7-10-17-30)

Urias, 15             (xx-xx-xx-15)

Hays, 13             (54-39-26-13)        First 4 months, Santander and Hays have opposite trends

[Three Run Homer]

27 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

July 2023 - BAL ranked 13th MLB-wide, helped by the 1st month of Cowser-Westburg (not that they hit any) joining Adley-Gunnar off the SigBot production line.

With injuries and the All-Star break, only 4 Bats actually qualified, so I ran July at 60 PA to catch meaningful part-time players.

Player, and July percentile among MLB bats, 60 PA, in Chase Rate (parens are April-May-June-July results):

Gunnar, 91         (95-93-51-91)

Cowser, 89        (xx-xx-xx-89)

Frazier, 89          (44-36-28-89)          Numbers definitely tell a story Frazier changed modes last month.

A. Hicks, 87        (xx-xx-76-87)

Adley, 55            (88-92-47-55)

Westburg, 53     (xx-xx-xx-53)

O'Hearn, 34       (xx-xx-xx-34)            O'Hearn's 1st Half part months had strong eye, so this 1st report misleading.   He may be seeing beach balls and riding a heater.     YTD Frazier, O'Hearn and Urias all have middle of pack type numbers at this skill.

Santander, 30     (7-10-17-30)

Urias, 15             (xx-xx-xx-15)

Hays, 13             (54-39-26-13)        First 4 months, Santander and Hays have opposite trends

I wonder if the recent decision to have Adley hit leadoff was motivated partly by the hope of reversing his downward trend in plate discipline.  

[Just Regular]

9 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I wonder if the recent decision to have Adley hit leadoff was motivated partly by the hope of reversing his downward trend in plate discipline.  

@RZNJ said it well the young guys also have to learn to swing with bad intentions.

Adley and Gunnar flickering out of the elite tier of this now and then is I think growth for them.     Obviously at peak you hope they'll dominate the edges of the zone and crush and that's when OPS's starting with 9 or 10 start to happen.

[Just Regular]

August 2023 - BAL ranked 21st MLB-wide, a lower month as notably Gunnar really let it eat.

For the 3rd straight month, Mullins shy of Qualified status - his incredible afternoon in Seattle obscured for me he ran a .220 obp last month.     Austin Hays had a light switch spike kind of month, which may or may not have helped his overall August success.

Player, and August percentile among MLB bats, Qualified, in Chase Rate (parens are April-May-June-July-August results):

Hays, 77             (54-39-26-13-77)   

Westburg, 73     (xx-xx-xx-53-73)

Adley, 70            (88-92-47-55-70)

Gunnar, 26         (95-93-51-91-26)      OBP down 5 points while AVG up 30.    He slugged .500 on the dot both months.

Santander, 20     (7-10-17-30-20)

Mountcastle, 15  (1-2-xx-xx-15) 

The ebbs and flows of a baseball season....some months, Austin Hays is your sharpest eye.     I think we can award Gunnar his Scout Badge at swinging with bad intentions.     Now, can he put it ALL together this division race + tournament?

Edited September 1, 2023 by Just Regular

[Just Regular]

September 2023 - BAL ranked 19th MLB-wide, and aside from Adley every qualified hitter was in attack mode.

Mullins returned to Qualified status, and Hays' August flirtation with a high percentile came and went.

Player, and September percentile among MLB bats, Qualified, in Chase Rate (parens are April-May-June-July-August-September results):

Adley, 78            (88-92-47-55-70-78)

Hays, 29             (54-39-26-13-77-29)   

Mullins, 27         (91-81-xx-xx-xx-27)

Gunnar, 25         (95-93-51-91-26-25)     

Santander, 23     (7-10-17-30-20-23)

O'Hearn, 22        (xx-xx-xx-34-xx-22) 

Gunnar slugged .530 and put out 17 extra base hits as less of a polite young man and more of a menace to pitchers as the year progressed.     It'll be interesting to see where his dial is for the postseason.      The June he was in the middle was his best OPS month of the year.

Mullins' results I can imagine being driven in part by seeking hacks after a lot of missed time early in the second half.     I'm hopeful he'll be sharp for playoff pitchers.

[Just Regular]

Aggression in the box, one of the stories of 2023 was Gunnar and Adley letting it go some.      Here are the 2020-2023 seasonal percentile results at Chase Rate for the '23 Orioles who attained 300 PA (xx in the 4-year scan is a season the player missed that volume at the MLB level)

Aaron Hicks, 97-xx-94-87            baseball generally knows he's up there angling for that walk

Adam Frazier, 69-57-52-45          hunting some HR in a favorable setting during '23?

Adley Rutschman, xx-xx-88-81

Anthony Santander, 7-15-36-16

Austin Hays, 12-37-13-38          3rd straight year the old corner OF pair has between them flip flopped 15ish and 35ish

Cedric Mullins, 35-56-43-61

Gunnar Henderson, xx-xx-xx-69

Jorge Mateo, xx-xx-14-23

Ramon Urias, xx-xx-44-44

Ryan Mountcastle, 6-4-10-7

Ryan O'Hearn, 77-xx-xx-33

The team was 19th - it wasn't as much growth up this metric as I thought Adley-Gunnar might inspire.      The '23 Rays had some ball smashing success, as all the HR came with a Bottom 5 outcome.      The coming Orioles Bats - Cowser and Holliday seem like the scientists, Kjerstad, Mayo and Basallo the smashers.

 

[Just Regular]

April 2024 - BAL ranked 26th MLB-wide, as the offensive strategy Do Damage looks very clear - even Adley is partying.     Buck and Adam Jones are probably enjoying this brand of run production.

Player, and April percentile among MLB bats, 70 PA minimum, in Chase Rate:

O'Hearn 92

Cowser 84

Gunnar 72

Mullins 53

Westburg 36

Adley 24

Mountcastle 10

Santander 7

All that damage resulted in league best wRC+ and runs/game.    We'll see if opposing pitchers start nibbling more trying to hide from the smashes.

Gunnar in MVP mode looks like maybe he's finding that happy medium.    Is Adley experimenting or evolving?

[LGOrioles]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

April 2024 - BAL ranked 26th MLB-wide, as the offensive strategy Do Damage looks very clear - even Adley is partying.     Buck and Adam Jones are probably enjoying this brand of run production.

Player, and April percentile among MLB bats, 70 PA minimum, in Chase Rate:

O'Hearn 92

Cowser 84

Gunnar 72

Mullins 53

Westburg 36

Adley 24

Mountcastle 10

Santander 7

All that damage resulted in league best wRC+ and runs/game.    We'll see if opposing pitchers start nibbling more trying to hide from the smashes.

Gunnar in MVP mode looks like maybe he's finding that happy medium.    Is Adley experimenting or evolving?

Pretty disappointed in Adley’s swing decisions this year. He’s making better contact but his swing decisions have been awful and he’s chasing like crazy. Not the same quality of at bat you’ve come to expect out of him, although the results are still there. Hopefully that changes.

Other than that, there probably isn’t too much of a negative surprise (maybe Santander). O’Hearn has been a bright spot and I could see Cowser and Westburg inching up a bit as they keep adjusting. Hopefully Gunnar too (if pitchers start nibbling more with him). 

Edited May 2 by LGOrioles

[sportsfan8703]

10 hours ago, LGOrioles said:

Pretty disappointed in Adley’s swing decisions this year. He’s making better contact but his swing decisions have been awful and he’s chasing like crazy. Not the same quality of at bat you’ve come to expect out of him, although the results are still there. Hopefully that changes.

Other than that, there probably isn’t too much of a negative surprise (maybe Santander). O’Hearn has been a bright spot and I could see Cowser and Westburg inching up a bit as they keep adjusting. Hopefully Gunnar too (if pitchers start nibbling more with him). 

Adley had the most balls called strikes on him last year in the MLB. Leaving it up to the umps didn’t work last year. 

[LGOrioles]

19 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Adley had the most balls called strikes on him last year in the MLB. Leaving it up to the umps didn’t work last year. 

He’s swinging at a lot of pitches that are not even close right now. I agree that he was shafted last year on called strikes though.

[btdart20]

13 hours ago, Just Regular said:

April 2024 - BAL ranked 26th MLB-wide, as the offensive strategy Do Damage looks very clear - even Adley is partying.     Buck and Adam Jones are probably enjoying this brand of run production.

Player, and April percentile among MLB bats, 70 PA minimum, in Chase Rate:

O'Hearn 92

Cowser 84

Gunnar 72

Mullins 53

Westburg 36

Adley 24

Mountcastle 10

Santander 7

All that damage resulted in league best wRC+ and runs/game.    We'll see if opposing pitchers start nibbling more trying to hide from the smashes.

Gunnar in MVP mode looks like maybe he's finding that happy medium.    Is Adley experimenting or evolving?

Feels pretty clear that the brass trusts their talent.  Previously it was about working every angle to close the talent gap.  Now we're coaching to let them eat.