TT: Rotation "horserace" becomes clearer

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Is Akin really pitching so well this spring that he warrants your initial assumption of being in the rotation? 

Elias and hyde aren't going to be persuaded by a few spring starts and Akin is as ready as he's ever going to be. His last outing was fine and he really is a guy they need to see what he can do in the rotation this year. I still think his ultimate role with be in a relief role at the majors, but I'd start him this year and see how he does over an extended period of time.

[LTO's]

2 hours ago, eddie83 said:

I have him off. For one thing not like he is going to make 28-32 starts anyway.  Even if he is throwing well. I say they go with the hot hands in Lopez and Zimmerman at the start with Akin an immediate option.

Any reason why you say this? He has 11 strikeouts this spring after having a 12.3 SO/9 last year. His 2021 projections are universally better than Kremer's and only slightly worse than John Means'. With Elias/Holt running the show the way they do, they are going to deal with the bumps along the way when the K numbers are that good. Especially from the left side.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Akin is on the team (and in the rotation) and he should be.

Yeah, I'm not sure why people think a few bad starts early on is going to change Elias/Hyde's plans for Akin this year. His last outing was fine as well.

[Tony-OH]

51 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't see why he wouldn't. He made 25 starts in 2018 and 24 starts over 25 games in 2019. He is not slight of frame and should be able to handle a starters workload this year.

I don't have issues with Akin's frame when it comes to starting, but I do have issues with his command long term as a starter. He takes too many pitches to get batters out and his pitch counts rise very quickly.  He'll start for a few years then settle in as a multi-inning reliever most likely. If he can learn to pitch often and back to back, he could be a real weapon out of the pen one day. 

Until then, he'll take the ball every 5th start this year and see how he does. He has a starter's repertoire so if the consistency of command ever comes around or if a team can live with him as a 4-5 inning guy, he'll stick as a starter.

[murph]

23 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I can't point to any studies or articles, hopefully someone else can jump in with more concrete evidence, but it is one of those conventional wisdom things that seems true in general, and I think I would be aware if it had been disproven.

Great question though, hopefully someone else is better at finding something on Google than I am.

I bet if some study was done (maybe use BMI, not really sure how to measure that), that the durability of a starter would be spread across all body types.   Obviously this is a completely subjective judgment and I am about to present a SSS of a sample of two players.  Greg Maddux (school teacher slight, but unbelievably durable and did throw hardish for his time) and David Wells (not so slight and pitched on a replaced UCL for most of his career without much in the way of DL/IL trips over said career and if Babe Ruth had been around the same time, he may have even said during a night out together, Dave, dude, I can't hang anymore, I gotta go some sleep!).   Honestly, it would be an interesting study.

But, back to Akin, I don't see why he can't make a full season of starts unless like Tony says command becomes such an issue he needs some time in the bullpen or back down in the minors. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Just saw this on Twitter:

He is definitely making the team imo.  I would say they try him in the rotation and then go from there.

Im not convinced they go with Zimmerman over LeBlanc although I agree they should.  
 

LeBlanc is the player on here I wonder about.  Not because I really want him on the team but because I could the Os wanting him on the team.  He question is, who do you take off?  I would guess Lopez or Sulser.
 

I have been intrigued about Greene since early on in the camp and I agree he should make the team.  There is some potential upside in that arm and we should be finding out if he can reach it.

 

Wonder where they got that video of him pitching. I heard he looked the best he's looked and there is little doubt if he's back to 94-96 he's going to make the team in the rotation.

[wildcard]

I think the O's should put the best 5 starters in the rotation.   One of the key elements for starters is to go deep in games.    This is one of the areas where Akin has something to prove.   Last season Akin got 6 starts and he went at least 5 innings in two of them.   Additionally Akin did not even average 5 innings per start in AAA in 2019.   

He seem to throw a lot of pitches per inning.   He may be nibbling to much or just not have enough control to finish batters off.  I know he has a high strike out total but that does not necessarily help him get deep in games.

So Akin entered ST with a leg up because he and Kremer had pitched for the O's in Sept to ERAs is the the 4.00s.    But Hyde said both pitchers would have to earn their spots.  What has happen so far is the Means, Zimmermann and Matt Harvey are ahead of Akin by going 4 IP in a start.  Kremer has also out pitched him so far.    To me Akin is battling Lopez and LeBlanc for a starting spot in a 5 man rotation at this point.  With two starts to go that can change.

So its not only about this spring.  Its also about where Akin is in his development.  Can he average 5 to 6 innings a start?   He is not a finished product IMO.  He had a 4.73 ERA in AAA in 2019.  I know he was working on his off speed stuff in 2019 but he still has to prove he can go deep in games.

If he is ready, show it.  Meanwhile Holt is retooling Matt Harvey and Lopez to be better pitchers and Zimmermann is out pitching just about everyone in camp.   I don't think Akin will be handed a starting job because he is next in line.   He is going to have to out pitch others to earn his spot.  At least that is how I hope it happens.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's should put the best 5 starters in the rotation.   One of the key elements for starters is to go deep in games.    This is one of the areas where Akin has something to prove.   Last season Akin got 6 starts and he went at least 5 innings in two of them.   Additionally Akin did not even average 5 innings per start in AAA in 2019.   

He seem to throw a lot of pitches per inning.   He may be nibbling to much or just not have enough control to finish batters off.  I know he has a high strike out total but that does not necessarily help him get deep in games.

So Akin entered ST with a leg up because he and Kremer had pitched for the O's in Sept to ERAs is the the 4.00s.    But Hyde said both pitchers would have to earn their spots.  What has happen so far is the Means, Zimmermann and Matt Harvey are ahead of Akin by going 4 IP in a start.  Kremer has also out pitched him so far.    To me Akin is battling Lopez and LeBlanc for a starting spot in a 5 man rotation at this point.  With two starts to go that can change.

So its not only about this spring.  Its also about where Akin is in his development.  Can he average 5 to 6 innings a start?   He is not a finished product IMO.  He had a 4.73 ERA in AAA in 2019.  I know he was working on his off speed stuff in 2019 but he still has to prove he can go deep in games.

If he is ready, show it.  Meanwhile Holt is retooling Matt Harvey and Lopez to be better pitchers and Zimmermann is out pitching just about everyone in camp.   I don't think Akin will be handed a starting job because he is next in line.   He is going to have to out pitch others to earn his spot.  At least that is how I hope it happens.

I don't agree.  Not in 2021.  If it was 1981 I'd agree with you. 

[Sports Guy]

If you are arguing that they should put their 5 best starters out there and you mention Lopez, that means you aren’t advocating for their 5 best starters.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you are arguing that they should put their 5 best starters out there and you mention Lopez, that means you aren’t advocating for their 5 best starters.

I am waiting to see what Holt can do with Lopez.  He has the stuff but has never put it together.  Hyde has been saying that they are pushing Lopez to be more  aggressive.    To me that means Holt is changing Lopez's approach.   I don't know if it will work.   He threw 64 pitches in 3 innings yesterday which he has to improve on.

As I said I think Akin, Lopez and LeBlanc are battling for the 5th spot at this point.

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't agree.  Not in 2021.  If it was 1981 I'd agree with you. 

The starters showing they can go 5 to 6 innings per start could be the difference between carrying 13 pitchers or 14.   It could mean the difference be 3 bench players and 4.   So it matters IMO.

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's should put the best 5 starters in the rotation.   One of the key elements for starters is to go deep in games.    This is one of the areas where Akin has something to prove.   Last season Akin got 6 starts and he went at least 5 innings in two of them.   Additionally Akin did not even average 5 innings per start in AAA in 2019.   

He seem to throw a lot of pitches per inning.   He may be nibbling to much or just not have enough control to finish batters off.  I know he has a high strike out total but that does not necessarily help him get deep in games.

So Akin entered ST with a leg up because he and Kremer had pitched for the O's in Sept to ERAs is the the 4.00s.    But Hyde said both pitchers would have to earn their spots.  What has happen so far is the Means, Zimmermann and Matt Harvey are ahead of Akin by going 4 IP in a start.  Kremer has also out pitched him so far.    To me Akin is battling Lopez and LeBlanc for a starting spot in a 5 man rotation at this point.  With two starts to go that can change.

So its not only about this spring.  Its also about where Akin is in his development.  Can he average 5 to 6 innings a start?   He is not a finished product IMO.  He had a 4.73 ERA in AAA in 2019.  I know he was working on his off speed stuff in 2019 but he still has to prove he can go deep in games.

If he is ready, show it.  Meanwhile Holt is retooling Matt Harvey and Lopez to be better pitchers and Zimmermann is out pitching just about everyone in camp.   I don't think Akin will be handed a starting job because he is next in line.   He is going to have to out pitch others to earn his spot.  At least that is how I hope it happens.

You are basing way too much off of spring training results which both Elias and Hyde have said they take with a grain of salt. Akin is going to be in the rotation this year unless he complete falls apart over the last two weeks of spring or his stuff falls off for some reason. 

Lopez has pitched well but we have a long track record of Lopez to go off of as a starter. Looking at his statcast info from his 3/11 appearance, it appears his stuff about the same as last year with nothing standing out as a new pitch, much better spin or movement. 

Basically he's the same guy that has been hammered as a starter pitching well in the spring against sometimes "not major league lineups."

LeBlanc? There is no world, except perhaps a bizarro world, where LeBlanc gets a starting rotation spot over Akin unless Akin is hurt. This season is all about evaluation of our young talent and Akin is part of that talent that needs to be evaluated at the major league level.

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The starters showing they can go 5 to 6 innings per start could be the difference between carrying 13 pitchers or 14.   It could mean the difference be 3 bench players and 4.   So it matters IMO.

You should be pulling your starter before the lineup turns over for a third at bat.

I don't want to see most of our rotation facing a guy for a third time. 

[wildcard]

21 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

You are basing way too much off of spring training results which both Elias and Hyde have said they take with a grain of salt. Akin is going to be in the rotation this year unless he complete falls apart over the last two weeks of spring or his stuff falls off for some reason. 

Lopez has pitched well but we have a long track record of Lopez to go off of as a starter. Looking at his statcast info from his 3/11 appearance, it appears his stuff about the same as last year with nothing standing out as a new pitch, much better spin or movement. 

Basically he's the same guy that has been hammered as a starter pitching well in the spring against sometimes "not major league lineups."

LeBlanc? There is no world, except perhaps a bizarro world, where LeBlanc gets a starting rotation spot over Akin unless Akin is hurt. This season is all about evaluation of our young talent and Akin is part of that talent that needs to be evaluated at the major league level.

 

Of course I agree with Lopez history.  But Holt is the x factor here.  He is trying to turning around Matt Harvey by changing his mechanic and pitches.  He is trying to chance Lopez with a more aggressive mental approach. Will it work?  I don't know.   In any case, Akin has to go 5 to 6 innings per start to win and hold onto a starting role IMO.

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You should be pulling your starter before the lineup turns over for a third at bat.

I don't want to see most of our rotation facing a guy for a third time. 

The O's probably need 16 pitchers to execute that approach.