2021 Orioles Prospect Power Rankings (Top 50)

[ChuckS]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Updated as of today...

A couple new prospects on the top 50 scene.

Big bumps for Trimble and Rhodes.  

[RZNJ]

Some surprises for me.  Vavra continues to be ranked highly.  Tony must really like his bat and potential to stay at 2B.  Creed Willems at #20. Tony seemed to question if staying at catcher and his athleticism.  I'm surprised he's this high this fast.  Trimble and Rhodes up at #13 and #14.  Draft position and SSS.  But what about Jean Pinto?  A 20 year old with 5 impressive starts and good stuff?  Why not up in the same range as Trimble and Rhodes?  Despite his size, I'm betting if he had been drafted in the 3rd round this year, he'd be ranked much higher. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Some surprises for me.  Vavra continues to be ranked highly.  Tony must really like his bat and potential to stay at 2B.  Creed Willems at #20. Tony seemed to question if staying at catcher and his athleticism.  I'm surprised he's this high this fast.  Trimble and Rhodes up at #13 and #14.  Draft position and SSS.  But what about Jean Pinto?  A 20 year old with 5 impressive starts and good stuff?  Why not up in the same range as Trimble and Rhodes?  Despite his size, I'm betting if he had been drafted in the 3rd round this year, he'd be ranked much higher. 

I think that the Willems ranking is impacted by his sizeable signing bonus.  If Elias and company thought he was worth a 1M signing bonus that implies a certain caliber of player.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Some surprises for me.  Vavra continues to be ranked highly.  Tony must really like his bat and potential to stay at 2B.  Creed Willems at #20. Tony seemed to question if staying at catcher and his athleticism.  I'm surprised he's this high this fast.  Trimble and Rhodes up at #13 and #14.  Draft position and SSS.  But what about Jean Pinto?  A 20 year old with 5 impressive starts and good stuff?  Why not up in the same range as Trimble and Rhodes?  Despite his size, I'm betting if he had been drafted in the 3rd round this year, he'd be ranked much higher. 

These are all good questions.   I look at these power rankings as informal snapshots that don’t include the level of analysis that Tony puts into his offseason rankings.   I certainly expect that the final power ranking will differ a bit from the order of the postseason top 30 once Tony really digs into it.  

I’m pretty excited about Pinto right now.   He’s a good candidate to move up several rungs if he continues to succeed.  
 

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that the Willems ranking is impacted by his sizeable signing bonus.  If Elias and company thought he was worth a 1M signing bonus that implies a certain caliber of player.

Sure.  That's it.  I just got the impression that Tony might hold out a bit before ranking him this high.

[Tony-OH]

53 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Some surprises for me.  Vavra continues to be ranked highly.  Tony must really like his bat and potential to stay at 2B.  Creed Willems at #20. Tony seemed to question if staying at catcher and his athleticism.  I'm surprised he's this high this fast.  Trimble and Rhodes up at #13 and #14.  Draft position and SSS.  But what about Jean Pinto?  A 20 year old with 5 impressive starts and good stuff?  Why not up in the same range as Trimble and Rhodes?  Despite his size, I'm betting if he had been drafted in the 3rd round this year, he'd be ranked much higher. 

I do like Vavra's bat and I think he can stick at 2B and may improve enough to be a solid defender there.

Basically Willems is where he's at based off his potential and bonus. His one million dollar bonus puts him around the same (a little below) as the two international bonus babies which is why he's right behind them. 

Both Trimble and Rhodes have some upside as starting outfielders so for now they get the nod ahead of others that may end up platoon guys or 4th outfielders. 

I like Pinto, but size and command are concerns, so I'd like to see him have success at AA before getting too high on him. Pinto probably would be a 5th round talent if drafted and I don't even have Tavera (5th round) on the list year yet although he could break in once I get a better look at him. He did reportedly hit 95 MPH in his one inning of work. 

 

[Tony-OH]

52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

These are all good questions.   I look at these power rankings as informal snapshots that don’t include the level of analysis that Tony puts into his offseason rankings.   I certainly expect that the final power ranking will differ a bit from the order of the postseason top 30 once Tony really digs into it.  

I’m pretty excited about Pinto right now.   He’s a good candidate to move up several rungs if he continues to succeed.  
 

Yep. This is the first year i did this and it appears people are enjoying the power rankings so I'll probably keep doing them next year. But, as you said, I haven't dug into the stats in details or had discussions with baseball people and scouts yet, so these are preliminary, particularly the newly drafted players.

I do enjoy the questions/back and forth with people so happy to give my thoughts when asked.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Yep. This is the first year i did this and it appears people are enjoying the power rankings so I'll probably keep doing them next year. But, as you said, I haven't dug into the stats in details or had discussions with baseball people and scouts yet, so these are preliminary, particularly the newly drafted players.

I do enjoy the questions/back and forth with people so happy to give my thoughts when asked.

It has been a very fun feature this year.   It would be interesting to see a chart showing how various players have moved up and down week by week.   (Not suggesting you should spend the time to do this, just saying it would be interesting to see the ups and downs.)

Still four weeks to go at AA and below, six weeks at AAA, so plenty of time for more movement.  By the way, I really missed minor league baseball this April, but I’m glad to have it running well into September this year (October for AAA) to keep me distracted from the Orioles!

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It has been a very fun feature this year.   It would be interesting to see a chart showing how various players have moved up and down week by week.   (Not suggesting you should spend the time to do this, just saying it would be interesting to see the ups and downs.)

Still four weeks to go at AA and below, six weeks at AAA, so plenty of time for more movement.  By the way, I really missed minor league baseball this April, but I’m glad to have it running well into September this year (October for AAA) to keep me distracted from the Orioles!

I agree. I wonder if they will consider keeping it like this in the future. In April everyone is still motivated by their teams but by this time, most of us are focused on the minors. Plus, with the draft pushed back, this would give the new draftees a longer first season. Maybe not into October, but I think having all of the season running until the end of September is a good thing.

[sportsfan8703]

Thanks @Tony-OHfor doing this. It’s really made this season so much more enjoyable. 
 

I’m glad to see Mundy “make the list”. Impressed by your take on Creed Willems.
 

What about a guy like Andrew Dashbach in AA? He was an 11th rd pick, back when that meant something. He got a decent bonus, and he’s turned on the bat enough to where it appears he’s getting ABs over Mundy in AA. Also, Dashbach has been playing some OF. 3 HR in 5 games since his promotion to Bowie. Mundy doesn’t have an AB since his promotion(injury?).  Previously guys like Dashbach, Jarrett, and Nevin would certainly be in our top 30. It really shows the strength of our system and the fact that we actually have int’l signings now. 
 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=daschb000and

We acquired two additional AAA power arms in Burdi and Greene. Fangraphs had Burdi in the CWS preseason top 50. 

Edited August 24, 2021 by sportsfan8703

[sportsfan8703]

For anyone or @Tony-OH, if McKenna still had prospect eligibility, where would he rank. 24. CF. Mashing in AAA. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

For anyone or @Tony-OH, if McKenna still had prospect eligibility, where would he rank. 24. CF. Mashing in AAA. 

Last year Tony had him at 27.    I’d guess he’d be a bit higher, but not a ton.  Great AAA numbers, lousy MLB numbers offensively, but he did add value defensively and on the bases.   

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Thanks @Tony-OHfor doing this. It’s really made this season so much more enjoyable. 
 

I’m glad to see Mundy “make the list”. Impressed by your take on Creed Willems.
 

What about a guy like Andrew Dashbach in AA? He was an 11th rd pick, back when that meant something. He got a decent bonus, and he’s turned on the bat enough to where it appears he’s getting ABs over Mundy in AA. Also, Dashbach has been playing some OF. 3 HR in 5 games since his promotion to Bowie. Mundy doesn’t have an AB since his promotion(injury?).  Previously guys like Dashbach, Jarrett, and Nevin would certainly be in our top 30. It really shows the strength of our system and the fact that we actually have int’l signings now. 
 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=daschb000and

We acquired two additional AAA power arms in Burdi and Greene. Fangraphs had Burdi in the CWS preseason top 50. 

Thanks. Mundy has been on the list for a long time now but is now hurt.

As for Dashbach, he's getting most of the reps at 1B because Mundy has a fractured thumb. Dashbach reminds me a bit of Trey Mancini when it comes to athleticism (not very athletic overall) and game, but he just doesn't have a good enough stick to be an everyday first baseman which limits his overall prospect status. Mancini didn't break out until his 2nd full season and although Dashbach is at the same point level/age wise as Macnini was, he's about 500 PAs behind him because of the last COVID season.

So, I guess the jury is still out on him, but we'd need to see some sustained power numbers at the AA and AAA levels for him to get onto the scene. 

I probably like him more than Nevin because he does tap into his power more.

 

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Last year Tony had him at 27.    I’d guess he’d be a bit higher, but not a ton.  Great AAA numbers, lousy MLB numbers offensively, but he did add value defensively and on the bases.   

I've always been a little lower on McKenna than others because I've questioned his stick, in particular his ability to hit upper velocity. Unfortunately, that showed to be true in his big league time and I think that's going to limit him.

Saying that, he's without a doubt a plus major league defender and runner, so he does bring value as a 4th outfielder, especially to a team that has left-handed hitting starters that may be defensively challenged. 

If he was eligible, I'd have him at 21.

[sportsfan8703]

McKenna should be with the org for our next winning stretch. He’s the perfect RH compliment to Mullins in CF, and his plus speed and defense make him a late game weapon.