Cedric Mullins as a CF

[scOtt]

On 6/2/2021 at 10:49 AM, oriole said:

Just because the O’s are bad doesn’t mean they need to give away players for less than they think the players are worth. 
 

I think most teams would value Mullins as much as any young player who had significant struggles but has had a couple months of success. I think to the O’s Mullins is finally reaching his potential that  we had all hoped for. He can be a lonesome bright spot in an otherwise completely awful season. If we were trading away good players for whatever teams were offering because we suck anyways then Means would be on the block to the highest bidder with no reserve even if it wasn’t a great offer. I’d like to think Elias won’t be giving anyone of value away just because it’s a rebuilding season. But maybe I’m wrong and we can get a player from a teams top 15-20 for Mullins just because that’s all that’s offered. 

Absolutely that!

[scOtt]

On 6/2/2021 at 11:22 AM, Can_of_corn said:

What does that have to do with what I said?

I disagree that Mullins has " more valuable to the O’s than any other team". 

I don't think Elias find value in the idea of Mullins being "a lonesome bright spot".  Does Mullins sell merch, cable tv subscriptions or season tickets?  I don't think so.

I think some of this. There aren't a whole lot of fans clamoring to go to The Yard this year. Kind of just those (us!) diehards. And you kind of have to look for a reason to go.

Mullins is definitely one of those reasons.

And Trey, and Means, and maybe Santander. Maybe Hays... any youngster pitcher just called up.

 

 

edit: I guess not SEASON tickets... but tickets nonetheless.

[scOtt]

On 6/2/2021 at 1:36 PM, Can_of_corn said:

The disconnect is simple.

You said he has more value to the O's than he would have to any other team.

I disagree. 

I think that a team which views him as a potentially useful piece in a season in which they expect to compete for the world series should view him as being more valuable than a team that has the worst record in baseball.

What is the old saying, we finished last with you we can finish last without you?

If you pull Mullins off the 2021 Orioles attendance doesn't change, TV viewership doesn't change, the team finishes last either way.  By those metrics he's not valuable to the current club.

Now could Mullins be a useful part of a future competitive Oriole team?  Maybe.  Should that possibility be a factor in a decision to move him?  Yes. 

There is at least a method to your madness.

I think you're putting WAY too much stock into how the O's are spending and cutting costs. Too much on the financial side. JMO. I don't think the Bros are restricting him very much. Besides Davis obviously... I think Elias has operated in a financially sound... but a team-centered way.... Like taking Kjerstadt(sp?) instead of Austin Martin, but so he could get the 2 overslot picks. Crafty lefty.

 

Don't know if he's really lefty or righty...

[scOtt]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

The Orioles are trying Vavra in CF and I'm betting at some point Servideo moves out there. There's Johnny Rizer at Bowie who has done nothing but hit since being drafted and is getting interesting though I'm not sure he has the pure speed for CF.

Haskins has look ok out there in Delmarva, but i haven't seen enough of him to make an educated opinion on his defense yet.

For the first time in awhile, we have some interesting guys playing CF and SS in the organization thanks to Elias's drafting and trading. 

Oh, and some think Jamai Jones could be tried there as well.

Servideo was/is a SS isn't he?

 

But there ya go! One of Elias' PRIMARY beliefs is SS's are the best athletes on the field.

[scOtt]

Sorry to mass bomb this thread. I'm behind...

[scOtt]

3 hours ago, Philip said:

Hmmm I see it as how far from the body was the ball?

His arm was fully extended, he was running full speed and his body was as fully extended as it is possible to be without diving or falling over, and his glove was turned away from his face so he couldn’t follow the ball into the glove.

I understand that if the ball is on the glove, it should be in the glove, but I don’t fault him at all for not making that catch.

 

Between the heel and the pocket of the glove is... 4 or 5 inches? From 375 feet away? At 90 mph?

[waroriole]

Unless a team sees him as an .800 OPS CF with plus defense and 5 years of team control, I wouldn’t trade him. 

[Hallas]

 

On 6/3/2021 at 10:46 AM, Frobby said:

I’ve now seen last night’s play on replay.   I don’t agree with SG that Mullins “had plenty of time” to catch the ball, as he was basically running full out.   I do agree he should have caught it (and never said otherwise).    

As to how many other CF would have reached it, like I said, I wish I had Statcast data on that play so we could just be objective about it.   One thing I will say is that Statcast suggests Mullins is not quite as fast as he used to be: average 28.4 ft/sec this year vs. 29.4 in 2018.  28.4 is 87th percentile overall, but only about average for a CF, whereas 29.4 is top 15% for a CF.   His jump is well above average at +1.7.   But none of that tells you anything about a specific play.   
 

So this post has been on the back of my mind, because I firmly believe that age doesn't automatically make you slow down by 1 whole fps in a year.  He is either nursing a mild injury or his jumps have been unusually bad in April.  The data supports that as well; the previous article you posted indicated that you lose about 0.1 FPS per year.  Even that amount seems to be a bit of an exaggeration for players that haven't suffered injury and are younger than 28.

 

I don't know if this is translatable, but Usain Bolt went from 9.58 in Beijng to 9.63 in London.  Over 4 years, covering ages 23-27, he lost about 0.15 feet per second.  It's entirely possible that he has a slower-than-average aging curve, but it seems to indicate that if you're healthy you shouldn't be losing very much speed between those ages.

 

edit to add: Bolt lost a lot more speed from London to Rio.  He went from 9.63 to 9.81 between those olympics, and lost 0.62 fps.  This would support the idea that, if healthy, you don't really lose much speed before 28, but after that point it accelerates significantly.  This also matches up with what I see on statcast for players we have data on.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Hallas said:

 

So this post has been on the back of my mind, because I firmly believe that age doesn't automatically make you slow down by 1 whole fps in a year.  He is either nursing a mild injury or his jumps have been unusually bad in April.  The data supports that as well; the previous article you posted indicated that you lose about 0.1 FPS per year.  Even that amount seems to be a bit of an exaggeration for players that haven't suffered injury and are younger than 28.

 

I don't know if this is translatable, but Usain Bolt went from 9.58 in Beijng to 9.63 in London.  Over 4 years, covering ages 23-27, he lost about 0.15 feet per second.  It's entirely possible that he has a slower-than-average aging curve, but it seems to indicate that if you're healthy you shouldn't be losing very much speed between those ages.

 

edit to add: Bolt lost a lot more speed from London to Rio.  He went from 9.63 to 9.81 between those olympics, and lost 0.62 fps.  This would support the idea that, if healthy, you don't really lose much speed before 28, but after that point it accelerates significantly.  This also matches up with what I see on statcast for players we have data on.

Note that Mullins didn’t lose 1 fps in a single year, it was over three years.   29.4, 29.2, 28.7, 28,4.  (Incidentally, between yesterday and today Statcast revised his 2021 average to 28.5.)

l’ll agree that age nay not be the only factor.  Usain Bolt’s only objective in his sport was to run 100/200 meters as fast as he could.   But let’s say Mullins thinks that adding 5-10 pounds of muscle will help his power.   He might do that even if it costs him a little speed.    Not that I know if Mullins actually did that; I’m just explaining how it could play out.  

[Moose Milligan]

Didn’t get to watch the game today as I’m on vacation but damn, what a box score! 5 for 5, two homers, three runs! 

[Can_of_corn]

6 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Didn’t get to watch the game today as I’m on vacation but damn, what a box score! 5 for 5, two homers, three runs! 

And a highlight reel catch.

[Ruzious]

I love that he's having a better year than Mookie Betts - since I used to say that he could become a poor man's Betts.  Obviously just 58 games, but that's impressive - with Betts still being one of baseball's elite.  It's a fun thing for me to compare their OPS+ (now 147 vs 129) - hoping Mullins has the advantage when the season ends.  Last year, Betts was 2nd in MVP voting - and had a 149 OPS+ winning a GG and a SS.  Please don't trade Mullins.               

[Just Regular]

This would be a fun midseason update!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-positional-power-rankings-center-field/

We were 20th then.   Glass Half Full-est I could see Mullins pushing Orioles in Top 6-10 range for next few years.

Grisham/Robert/Laureano 5-7 hit me as the tier maybe he can hang in if this dream of wildest dreams can endure.

Trout/Bellinger/Springer/Buxton seem in a different class, though we will see how aging goes.    Springer I give a division rival extra respect, though I imagine Jays fandom slightly aggravated about now as his CF hourglass running low already.

8 - Yankees Hicks/Gardner - haha.    How much longer will they hide Jasson?

9 - Diamondbacks Ketel Marte.   Is he a Stretch Goal or a Safety School for Mullins from here?

10 - Rays Margot  (rest of league - please continue not to give Rays anything for old expensive Kiermaier even they don't want to pay).    Mullins v. Margot a key battle line as Adley teams try to climb division.

11 - Red Sox Verdugo-Duran   -   here it is Duran who needs to acclimate and prove he can hang with Mullins.   I don't feel Verdugo a real CF.

12 - Cubs/Happ (not a real CF imo), 13 - Cards/Bader, 14 - Mets/Nimmo, 15 - Brewers - Cain/JBJ the end of the Top Half and teams from here I wouldn't want to switch with today.

One of the things I like about Mullins is the same as Mancini - in their early 20's they put the 2000 minor league PA on the board.   

[Frobby]

Every time I feel Mullins is regressing to the mean a little bit, he gets hot again.   He’s really having a great season.  

[maybenxtyr]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Every time I feel Mullins is regressing to the mean a little bit, he gets hot again.   He’s really having a great season.  

He's been on excellent surprise this season. Nobody is "untouchable", but he is the type of player they should build around.