Rank Kahlil Watson vs the current O's SS?

[Jammer7]

21 hours ago, 7Mo said:

That's kinda tough to do given that all that's available on Watson are some brief videos and written blurbs. But from what I've read, the 5'9" Watson profiles more as a second baseman. Video's show excellent bat speed and athleticism and he will likely play short for a few years in MiLB to see how he develops.

From draft comments, it also appears Watson is shooting up boards, either because he's still playing when other high schools aren't, or my speculation is he is more amenable to an underslot deal and therefore, he's rising on boards. Looks like there's a real chance he gets taken at 2. I've read that Elias has seen Watson a lot recently.

As to guys in our system, Gunnar is clearly the best prospect considering both offensive and defensive ceilings and he should have a good chance to stay at short.  

Here's a compilation of draft projections from Trade Rumors:

• 1. Pirates: Mayer (Callis/Collazo/Law/McDaniel), Henry Davis, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson, Jack Leiter
• 2. Rangers: Leiter (Callis), Lawlar (Collazo/Law), Davis (McDaniel), Kumar Rocker, Mayer, Watson….in a contrast to the other three pundits, Callis writes that Texas has Lawlar and Davis “on the back burner” behind Watson, Mayer, and Leiter.  “Watson has real heat at this spot,” Collazo writes.
• 3. Tigers: Mayer, Jackson Jobe (Callis/Collazo), Leiter (Law), Brady House (McDaniel), Lawlar, Watson, possibly Rocker “as a big maybe” in Collazo’s words
• 4. Red Sox: Lawlar (Callis), Davis (Law), Leiter (Collazo/McDaniel)….Collazo doesn’t believe Leiter would fall beyond Boston at fourth overall,
• 5. Orioles: Davis (Callis), Colton Cowser (Law), Watson (Collazo/McDaniel), House, Harry Ford, either of Mayer/Lawler if they happened to fall….Baltimore is widely expected to take a college position player at an under-slot price, as a way of keeping money in reserve to go over-slot on other picks.
• 6. Diamondbacks: Rocker (Callis), Davis (Collazo), Watson (Law), Lawlor (McDaniel), Jobe
• 7. Royals: Watson (Callis), Rocker (Collazo/Law/McDaniel)….this is another minor consensus area, as Law and McDaniel believe that Rocker isn’t likely to fall beyond Kansas City.  “The market for Rocker is weirdly specific,” Law writes, citing the Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Nationals, and Mets as perhaps the only true interested parties.  Of course, Callis projected the D’Backs to take Rocker at sixth overall, so Arizona could also be a candidate for the Vanderbilt righty.

Thanks for the great synopsis!

I agree it is very difficult to rank them at this point. A lot of unknowns. I read the comments by Kiley McDaniel, Callis and Mayo. I cannot say that “compact frame” and solid SS excites me when considering a profile of a 5’-09” HS SS, who is “not the elite runner that Abrams is.” I admit that I, like you, have seen limited video and such. If Elias takes him, I’m a fan. But just looking at what is publicly available, I agree he profiles at 2B. A 55 grade arm at SS is ok, but not exceptional. Ideally, I want a little more at SS, but above average is not really a knock. It just isn’t a plus. As players mature and gain muscle and size, the arm can sometimes slide a bit. 

That said, nothing wrong with those things if he hits, and he “competes” at an elite level. We need “winners” in this organization, even if they are nearly average defenders. 

It would be difficult to put such an unknown ahead of some of the existing players. Personally, I think Henderson will have to prove that he can stay at SS, not saying he cannot, just that he has to show that every step. Henderson and Westburg both project to be 3B, or perhaps a corner OF. We’ll see. I personally value defense at SS a great deal over offense. So to rank Grenier and Ortiz at the top right now is based on my value of steady quality defense, and a resurgence at the plate for both. Servideo is supposed to be another excellent defender and the early returns are that his OBP and ability to be patient at the plate are excellent. His versatility seems to indicate a utility profile, but we’ll see what offense he provides. Hall is generally thought to no longer be a SS prospect from what I have read. 

[7Mo]

3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Thanks for the great synopsis!

I agree it is very difficult to rank them at this point. A lot of unknowns. I read the comments by Kiley McDaniel, Callis and Mayo. I cannot say that “compact frame” and solid SS excites me when considering a profile of a 5’-09” HS SS, who is “not the elite runner that Abrams is.” I admit that I, like you, have seen limited video and such. If Elias takes him, I’m a fan. But just looking at what is publicly available, I agree he profiles at 2B. A 55 grade arm at SS is ok, but not exceptional. Ideally, I want a little more at SS, but above average is not really a knock. It just isn’t a plus. As players mature and gain muscle and size, the arm can sometimes slide a bit. 

That said, nothing wrong with those things if he hits, and he “competes” at an elite level. We need “winners” in this organization, even if they are nearly average defenders. 

It would be difficult to put such an unknown ahead of some of the existing players. Personally, I think Henderson will have to prove that he can stay at SS, not saying he cannot, just that he has to show that every step. Henderson and Westburg both project to be 3B, or perhaps a corner OF. We’ll see. I personally value defense at SS a great deal over offense. So to rank Grenier and Ortiz at the top right now is based on my value of steady quality defense, and a resurgence at the plate for both. Servideo is supposed to be another excellent defender and the early returns are that his OBP and ability to be patient at the plate are excellent. His versatility seems to indicate a utility profile, but we’ll see what offense he provides. Hall is generally thought to no longer be a SS prospect from what I have read. 

Agree with everything you said. Very good post.

I was half listening to MLB radio the other day when they were talking about how the shortstop position has changed over the last 20 years. A bigger guy with a cannon for an arm plays much more favorably in todays game than they would have 20 years ago. 

And then, Dan Connolly had a scout tell him this: 

The scout told me that Henderson, a 2019 second-rounder, might be the best player he’s seen so far this year from an upside perspective. And then he dropped this hammer.

“He reminds me of Corey Seager.”

[Jammer7]

3 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Agree with everything you said. Very good post.

I was half listening to MLB radio the other day when they were talking about how the shortstop position has changed over the last 20 years. A bigger guy with a cannon for an arm plays much more favorably in todays game than they would have 20 years ago. 

And then, Dan Connolly had a scout tell him this: 

The scout told me that Henderson, a 2019 second-rounder, might be the best player he’s seen so far this year from an upside perspective. And then he dropped this hammer.

“He reminds me of Corey Seager.”

I can certainly see that comp. And yeah, the game has changed to bigger SS. The shift and all of the analytics come into play. I still have a hard time giving anyone’s upside anything until they actually do it. Henderson makes a ton of errors right now. Not a big issue, not now. He is still an elite prospect, sure. If I’m a pitcher, I want the guy who makes the most plays, turns outs into outs. But there are also less ground balls these days. I can see it both ways. 

[7Mo]

5 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I can certainly see that comp. And yeah, the game has changed to bigger SS. The shift and all of the analytics come into play. I still have a hard time giving anyone’s upside anything until they actually do it. Henderson makes a ton of errors right now. Not a big issue, not now. He is still an elite prospect, sure. If I’m a pitcher, I want the guy who makes the most plays, turns outs into outs. But there are also less ground balls these days. I can see it both ways. 

Yeah, I'm with you there. I haven't watched any of the group enough to feel strongly. Ortiz and Hernaiz seem to have the defensive rep. Hopefully one hits enough. And the guy who winds up being the long time SS may not be in the organization yet. 

Also, the "less ground balls"...you're obviously correct but I think that's going to head the other way soon with spin rates going down. Maybe not drastically but at least some pitchers will have to adapt.

[Jammer7]

3 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Yeah, I'm with you there. I haven't watched any of the group enough to feel strongly. Ortiz and Hernaiz seem to have the defensive rep. Hopefully one hits enough. And the guy who winds up being the long time SS may not be in the organization yet. 

Also, the "less ground balls"...you're obviously correct but I think that's going to head the other way soon with spin rates going down. Maybe not drastically but at least some pitchers will have to adapt.

Agreed. I wonder if the sinker/slider combo comes back more so. It has to have somewhat of a correction. I forgot about Hernaiz, he has a ways to go with his bat though. Don’t sleep on Grenier. If he continues to hit the way he has the past 6 weeks. People still love his steady reliable defense. 

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, Jammer7 said:

Agreed. I wonder if the sinker/slider combo comes back more so. It has to have somewhat of a correction. I forgot about Hernaiz, he has a ways to go with his bat though. Don’t sleep on Grenier. If he continues to hit the way he has the past 6 weeks. People still love his steady reliable defense. 

Saw Grenier take a fairly difficult play and make it look real easy today. I want to believe in his bat but I can't quite get there yet. Hope he sustains what he's been doing, or builds on it.

[Jammer7]

2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Saw Grenier take a fairly difficult play and make it look real easy today. I want to believe in his bat but I can't quite get there yet. Hope he sustains what he's been doing, or builds on it.

That is my hope as well. Sort of a JJ Hardy type, probably not as much power. 

[7Mo]

4 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

That is my hope as well. Sort of a JJ Hardy type, probably not as much power. 

Have you seen any talk of what's different for him this year?

K's still a little too high, 50 in 156 AB's. 

If he can get close to a JJ type, I'd be thrilled.

[Jammer7]

10 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Have you seen any talk of what's different for him this year?

K's still a little too high, 50 in 156 AB's. 

If he can get close to a JJ type, I'd be thrilled.

Nothing really specific beyond taking pitches that are not good to hit. Being a little less aggressive on borderline pitches. Buck Britton and their hitting coach have spoken about how the team works on these things. Matt Blood talked about it as well. I do not know about mechanical things. Ortiz obviously is exciting with the strength he added as well. 

[Three Run Homer]

22 hours ago, 7Mo said:

And then, Dan Connolly had a scout tell him this: 

The scout told me that Henderson, a 2019 second-rounder, might be the best player he’s seen so far this year from an upside perspective. And then he dropped this hammer.

“He reminds me of Corey Seager.”

Well that's all fine and well, but will he ever get a hit in Aberdeen?  

[Three Run Homer]

On 6/26/2021 at 4:42 PM, 7Mo said:

 

• 5. Orioles: Davis (Callis), Colton Cowser (Law), Watson (Collazo/McDaniel), House, Harry Ford, either of Mayer/Lawler if they happened to fall….Baltimore is widely expected to take a college position player at an under-slot price, as a way of keeping money in reserve to go over-slot on other picks.
•  

Why can't we ever have nice things?  

[7Mo]

13 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Well that's all fine and well, but will he ever get a hit in Aberdeen?  

Probably not. Next hit will be with the O's after they sign him to a 10 year contract and bring him up Thursday so he can learn.

[7Mo]

13 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Why can't we ever have nice things?  

Depending on who is available, I wouldn't feel terrible about Cowser.

I would if we passed on Lawlar or Leiter though.

[OriolesMagic83]

18 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Have you seen any talk of what's different for him this year?

K's still a little too high, 50 in 156 AB's. 

If he can get close to a JJ type, I'd be thrilled.

I would be happy w/ Mike Bordick comp.

[OriolesMagic83]

19 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Well that's all fine and well, but will he ever get a hit in Aberdeen?  

He seems to be either striking out or walking.  I noticed he had 10 K's and 8 walks.  Maybe he's channeling his inner Chris Davis.  Be one with the ball!