Sometimes its worth paying slot

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Semantics.   Whether we say Elias wants to keep a highly rated farm system or the best farm system possible, its basically saying the same thing.   And if name recognition is the issue, he has it because he has been very, very good in one of the best college baseball conferences in the world.

So, basically you are saying you’d rather have Rocker than whoever else Elias might select plus whatever overslot guys he can sign with the extra money.   I’m neutral.   I’ve never seen Rocker pitch, and wouldn’t be able to really judge how good he is if I had.   Nor have I seen whoever else Elias might select.   My basic theory of draft evaluation is that I expect the GM and his staff to know what they’re doing.   So I’ll defer to him now and judge it in hindsight later.   

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, basically you are saying you’d rather have Rocker than whoever else Elias might select plus whatever overslot guys he can sign with the extra money.   I’m neutral.   I’ve never seen Rocker pitch, and wouldn’t be able to really judge how good he is if I had.   Nor have I seen whoever else Elias might select.   My basic theory of draft evaluation is that I expect the GM and his staff to know what they’re doing.   So I’ll defer to him now and judge it in hindsight later.   

Slot value for the fifth pick in 2021- $6,180,700

Slot value for the second pick in 2020- $7,789,900

There is less room to maneuver this season.

[7Mo]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

The lower Rocker goes in the draft there is a good chance that the Bonus is less.    I have seen several mock drafts that has him going to KC at 7.    I don't see why he would prefer KC.  Montgomery is 12 hours from KC and Baltimore.  So that is not the reason.

It's not about him preferring to go to KC. It's about 6 teams not picking him when he's available.

[Jammer7]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

The lower Rocker goes in the draft there is a good chance that the Bonus is less.    I have seen several mock drafts that has him going to KC at 7.    I don't see why he would prefer KC.  Montgomery is 12 hours from KC and Baltimore.  So that is not the reason.

As far as Rocker turning down 6m, I doubt it.

Rocker is a Junior in college.  And yes, he could go back for his Senior year but why risk injury  next year if he is offered 6m.

He is a sophomore in college sports eligibility. 2020 does not count. 

Maybe you don’t see why he might prefer another team, but if there is a preference, it could be nothing to do with the city and more to do with the organization. Let me be clear, this is only a hypothetical on my part, but that stuff happens sometimes. There is a lot that goes into this. 

I cannot agree with you on this one. It is highly unlikely Elias drafts Rocker. There is a lot of talent, but extreme risk on him. That said, whatever he does, I am sure it is well thought out and has the overall goal to make the organization stronger. I don’t think he cares much how the publications rate the farm system. He talks about it to the fans, sure. But that is meaningless, really, unless there is a stable winning major league team in the next few years. This is not the time to take extreme risks with your #1, IMHO. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Slot value for the fifth pick in 2021- $6,180,700

Slot value for the second pick in 2020- $7,789,900

There is less room to maneuver this season.

Agreed.   There’s a ton of speculation about where Elias is leaning.  I don’t pay any attention to it.   He’ll do what he does.  For all we know, he’s leaking an underslot story to put pressure on whoever he thinks are the likely BPA when the no. 5 pick rolls around.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

He is a sophomore in college sports eligibility. 2020 does not count. 

Maybe you don’t see why he might prefer another team, but if there is a preference, it could be nothing to do with the city and more to do with the organization. Let me be clear, this is only a hypothetical on my part, but that stuff happens sometimes. There is a lot that goes into this. 

I cannot agree with you on this one. It is highly unlikely Elias drafts Rocker. There is a lot of talent, but extreme risk on him. That said, whatever he does, I am sure it is well thought out and has the overall goal to make the organization stronger. I don’t think he cares much how the publications rate the farm system. He talks about it to the fans, sure. But that is meaningless, really, unless there is a stable winning major league team in the next few years. This is not the time to take extreme risks with your #1, IMHO. 

I disagree.

I don't think you hold Hays and Mountcastle back to keep them from losing rookie status if you don't care about farm rankings.

 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Agreed.   There’s a ton of speculation about where Elias is leaning.  I don’t pay any attention to it.   He’ll do what he does.  For all we know, he’s leaking an underslot story to put pressure on whoever he thinks are the likely BPA when the no. 5 pick rolls around.  

I'm pretty much sitting back waiting until the draft actually happens to see if I need to get angry or not.

 

[Jammer7]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I disagree.

I don't think you hold Hays and Mountcastle back to keep them from losing rookie status if you don't care about farm rankings.

 

Like you said, we disagree. 

[joelala]

Rocker not looking too sharp right now. At all. More balls than strikes through 2 2/3 IP. Sitting 92-94. I don’t think he should be the pick, and tend to think he won’t be. 

[ReclaimTheCrown]

40 minutes ago, joelala said:

Rocker not looking too sharp right now. At all. More balls than strikes through 2 2/3 IP. Sitting 92-94. I don’t think he should be the pick, and tend to think he won’t be. 

Rocker didn’t pitch tonight. Maybe they’re holding him for game three 

[joelala]

9 hours ago, ReclaimTheCrown said:

Rocker didn’t pitch tonight. Maybe they’re holding him for game three 

Right you are. My apologies. 

[Sports Guy]

I wouldn’t be upset if they took Rocker and I may prefer him over the college OFers but I hope we go a different direction than him.  He worries me.  

[ReclaimTheCrown]

21 minutes ago, joelala said:

Right you are. My apologies. 

No worries.

I do agree with you that he doesn’t feel like he’ll be our pick, though I’m definitely intrigued by the guy. Either way, quite an opportunity for him tonight on the biggest stage....former presumptive 1-1 whose stock has taken a mild hit, he’s got the chance to silence some doubters. Obviously big league teams don’t make first round selections based on one game, but it will be interesting to see if he reenters the discussion as a top 3ish pick with a big night tonight. Or what happens if he doesn’t pitch well. 

[osravensfan78]

23 hours ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

For those of you in the know, who are some of the overslot guys we could be looking to land, if we do go underslot in the first round? 

The two I’ve seen the most are Cowser and Frelick. Both considered in the 10-15 area and and usually described as secondary college bats. I prefer Cowser to Frelik, but don’t think either should be talked about at pick 5 IMO. 

[Frobby]

Jim Callis:  “I do think that the only pitcher the Orioles would take at five would be Jack Leiter. I don’t think they take Kumar Rocker. I don’t think they take Jackson Jobe, the high school pitcher from Oklahoma. But after that, picking (next) at 41, if the best guy there is a pitcher, they might take him.

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/06/feeling-a-draft-jim-callis-on-the-os-at-no-5.html