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My 2021 Midseason Report Card


Frobby

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Well done. 

I would probably have Mountcastle as a C because of my high expectations for him and his overall performance. His defense in LF was really poor.  Obviously he was just ROM. Cooled a little this week. Clearly as you said he was two different players. Optimistic about where he is heading and I believe in him as a player. He is trending to a B player if he keeps it up in second half but not there yet for me.

Hays is hard to judge as you said but B- adds up. Hope Santander gets going. 

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I’ll do the pitchers in order of innings pitched.

Jorge Lopez, 2-10, 76.0 IP, 5.92 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, -0.1 rWAR: C.   This might seem like an outrageously lenient grade, but what were your expectations for the guy?   The mere fact that he leads the team in IP is a positive for him.   He’s really miscast as a starter who they try to stretch to 5-6 IP.  

Matt Harvey, 3-9, 72.1 IP, 7.34 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, -1.5 rWAR: F.   While there was no reason to expect anything from Harvey, an ERA over 7 is where I draw the line when it comes to handing out failing grades.   He’s trying valiantly so I give him credit for that.   Maybe he’s been slightly better his last couple of games?   Maybe?

John Means, 4-2, 71.0 IP, 2.28 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 5.3 K/BB, 3.1 rWAR: A.   I expected Means to be the best pitcher on our staff.   I didn’t expect him to be one of the top pitchers in the league.   The no-hitter was the icing on the cake.   The only reason he doesn’t join Mullins in the red-letter A+ club is that he’s landed on the IL.  

Bruce Zimmermann, 4-4, 59.1 IP, 4.83 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 0.7 rWAR: B.  While I can’t say Zimm has been a world-beater, he’s outpitched his higher-rated peers and generally hung in games.   Since my expectations were low, I could have gone with B+, but I dinged him for landing on the IL.

Dean Kremer, 0-7, 49.2 IP, 7.25 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, -0.7 rWAR: F.   I expected Kremer’s numbers to look more like Zimmermann’s.   His command has been very shaky and that was supposed to be a strong suit for him.    Looks like he’ll be an up and down guy all year shuttling to and from Norfolk.

Adam Plutko, 1-2, 41.2 IP, 5.18 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 7.8  K/9, 2.1 K/BB, -0.1 rWAR: B-.   Plutko pretty much goes in the Zimmermann category where I didn’t expect much.   He’s had some great games and some awful ones.   Overall he’s been useful sopping up innings after short starts.

Keegan Akin, 0-4, 38.0 IP, 7.11 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, -0.4 rWAR: F.   Another guy I thought might give us respectable back end numbers who has failed to do it.   To me, he doesn’t really have an out pitch.  

 Tyler Wells, 2-0, 35.2 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 4.1 K/BB, 0.6 rWAR: A-.   A steal in the Rule 5 draft, he’s done well in almost any role.   A keeper for sure.   Will be interesting to see if they try him as a starter in the future.

Dillon Tate, 0-3, 32.0 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 0.6 rWAR: B.   Tate has been a little hot and cold, and he doesn’t miss many bats.   But, he has been relatively solid.

 Paul Fry, 2-2, 30.2 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 12.0 K.9, 2.7 K/9, 0.8 rWAR: B+.   Until the last couple of weeks, he was the most consistent member of our bullpen.   He’s been walking more guys than I’d expect but has bene tough to hit.   I’m a little worried about his second half based on recent performance.

Tanner Scott, 3-2, 30.2 IP, 2.93 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 14.0 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 0.9 rWAR: B-.   Scott has the same IP as Fry, and a lower ERA.   I give him a lower grade because his lack of control drives me bananas.   26 walks in 30.2 innings, and some days he just has no idea how to throw his fastball in the strike zone.   I honestly wanted to give him a lower grade, but how can I argue with a 2.93 ERA?

Cole Sulser, 2-0, 30.2 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, 3.6 K/BB, 1.2 rWAR: A.    I had pretty low expectations for Sulser based on last year where he started well but collapsed as the year progressed.   But he was pitching then with a broken toe, and he’s shown he can miss bats and throw strikes at the same time.   He may regain the closer role.

Travis Lakins, 1-4, 28.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 1.4 K/9, -0.3 rWAR: D.   I wasn’t expecting much, but he’s been disappointing.   In particular, a guy with underwhelming stuff can’t walk 17 batters in 28 IP.

Cesar Valdez, 3-1, 26.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 4.1 K/BB, -0.3 rWAR: D-.   The carriage turned into a pumpkin very abruptly for the Cinderella story of 2020 and the first month of 2021.   At first nobody could figure him out, then suddenly everyone figured him out.   He’s on the IL now and let’s hope he figures out a new trick or he may not last the season.

Shawn Armstrong, 0-0, 20.0 IP, 8.55 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, -0.6 rWAR: F.   He was DFA and nobody wanted him, so he’s now toiling at Norfolk.   In addition to the horrible stats above, he allowed 9 of 11 inherited runners to score.

 

Everyone else gets an incomplete.

 

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No way would I grade Santander lower that Stewart.  You seem to be grading on expectations so your grade  is fair considering that.  But if you are grading on performance Stewart is worse.  So bad that I think if he does not improve he is gone.  He is only on the team for his bat and what he has done so far this year do not earn him a spot.

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47 minutes ago, wildcard said:

No way would I grade Santander lower that Stewart.  You seem to be grading on expectations so your grade  is fair considering that.  But if you are grading on performance Stewart is worse.  So bad that I think if he does not improve he is gone.  He is only on the team for his bat and what he has done so far this year do not earn him a spot.

I think I made it clear I was grading on expectations.   Santander was our MVP last year and his OPS has dropped by 216 points.   Stewart’s only down by 132.   

Even if I weren’t grading against expectations, it would be no better than a draw for Santander.    Stewart has a .302 wOBA compared to .291 for Santander.    Santander is the better defender, but his defense has been lackluster this year - partly because of being dinged up, but those are the breaks.   
 

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think I made it clear I was grading on expectations.   Santander was our MVP last year and his OPS has dropped by 216 points.   Stewart’s only down by 132.   

Even if I weren’t grading against expectations, it would be no better than a draw for Santander.    Stewart has a .302 wOBA compared to .291 for Santander.    Santander is the better defender, but his defense has been lackluster this year - partly because of being dinged up, but those are the breaks.   
 

Pun intended.

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I appreciate that Stewart seems to have a plan when he bats and doesn’t get cheated often, but unfortunately that hasn’t turned into production. If he can figure it out he could have a role on this team post-Mancini or Santander, but his time is running out.

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4 hours ago, Frobby said:

With half the season in the books, here is my midseason report card.   As usual, all grades are on a curve, based on what my expectations were for the player going in to the season.    I’ll do the batters in one post and pitchers in another. 

Trey Mancini .254/.330/.451, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 0.7 rWAR: B+.    It’s tempting to give him an A+ just for stepping on the field.   But, we knew before the season began that he’s been given a clean bill of health.   Replicating 2019 would have been A+ material.   He’s not hitting at that level but he’s been solid and has driven in plenty of runs, dispelling any doubt about his ability to play well after missing a year and going through chemo.

Ryan Mountcastle, .263/.302/.468, 14 HR, 47 RBI, -0.1 rWAR: B-.   It really was a tale of two quarters for Mountcastle, who got off to a terrible start and struggled through mid-May, then flipped a switch and was Rookie of the Month in June.   I would have given him a B for his offense, but the LF experiment didn’t go well and so he comes in with a negative WAR.   I don’t judge him as harshly as rWAR since LF was a new position for him, but he does get downgraded for that.

Pat Valaika, .192/.255/.256, 1 HR, 12 RBI, -0.9 rWAR: D-.   Valaika only escapes an F because I had low expections to begin with.   To me he seems very overanxious at the plate compared to last year.  

Rio Ruiz, .167/.250/.300, 3 HR, 6 RBI, -0.2 rWAR: F.   The fact that he did so poorly that he was DFA even though there weren’t any replacement options better than Valaika and Wilkerson tells you all you need to know.

Stevie Wilkerson, .167/.211/.208, 0 HR, 2 RBI, -0.5 rWAR: F.    Even by Wilkerson’s standards, he was a bust and a deserving DFA.

Maikel Franco, .221/.265/.376, 9 HR, 42 RBI, -0.8 rWAR: D-.   I cut him a break and upgraded him from F because his HR and RBI numbers are respectable.   I didn’t expect much above replacement value, but he’s been well below that.   Erratic defender and very disappointing at the plate.   He’s heated up a little lately, so I’m hoping his second half will be better.

Freddy Galvis, .249/.306/.414, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 1.1 rWAR: B.   He’s been pretty much what I expected, maybe a little better with the bat and slightly worse with his range.   But overall, a steady player and a bargain at what we paid him.

Ramon Urias, .250/.341/.431, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 0.6 rWAR: B.   Having played himself off the team at one point, he has hit very well since returning to the majors.    He’s made a couple of defensive plays that really stuck in my craw as boneheaded, which is why I didn’t grade him higher.   But he has earned more playing time in the second half, and he’ll get it now that Galvis is out for a while.

Pedro Severino, .231/.309/.319, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 0.4 rWAR: D.   Oh, I want to give him an F.   The low OPS, the balls going to the backstop, the poor framing.    But then he does have a positive rWAR, so I can’t quite fail him, especially since my expectations weren’t that high to begin with.

Chance Sisco, .154/.247/.182, 0 HR, 3 RBI, -0.3 rWAR: F.   Well, here’s a catcher I can give an F.   His bat, not terrible the last couple of seasons, just completely disappeared.  The guy made almost no hard contract whatsoever.   He actually did surprisingly well at throwing out runners, but otherwise was very poor defensively and was deservedly DFA.

Austin Hays, .249/.307/.434, 8 HR, 26 RBI, 1.2 rWAR: B-.   This may seem like a slightly harsh grade for a guy who put up 1.2 rWAR in only 51 games.   But offensively he has been slightly disappointing compared to my relatively high expectations for him.   And, fair or not, I ding him a little for his two IL stints, even though that’s consistent with his history.   He’s been terrific defensively, especially with the arm.

Cedric Mullins, .322/.391/.550, 14 HR, 30 RBI, 15 SB, 4.0 rWAR: A+.  Yes, Mullins gets his own color.    At the start of the year Mullins was seen as a fringe starter/4th OF.   Now he’s an All Star on pace to have one of the best seasons of any Oriole ever.   He’s been stellar defensively too.   I only downgraded him from A++ because of his weak arm.

Anthony Santander, .239/.281/.388, 5 HR, 18 RBI, -0.2 rWAR: D-.   What a dive from our 2020 MVP.   I’d blame it on him playing hurt, except that he was playing poorly before he got hurt.   I hope he can pull it together in the second half.

D.J. Stewart, .209/.317/.360, 7 HR, 21 RBI, -0.3 rWAR: D.   Stewart got ample playing time in the first half due to the injuries to Hays and Santander.   He was inconsistent offensively, still showing his trademark good patience but struggling to make contact on hittable pitches.    He’s always been a below average defender, but I’d say he was worse than expected out there.

Ryan McKenna, .200/.290/.255, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 0.4 rWAR: C-.   Obviously the offensive numbers are awful but his 0.4 rWAR comes from playing very good defense.   Since he’s mostly a defensive replacement/pinch runner type, that’s worth something.   I think he needs a little more AAA seasoning but hope he can at least be a David Lough type.

Austin Wynns and Domingo Leyva – Incomplete.   Less than 50 PA for either so it is too soon to judge them.   So far, however, I can’t say Wynns is much of an upgrade over Sisco.   Leyva will be interesting to watch as he figures to get regular reps now that Galvis is on the DL and Wilkerson has been DFA.

 

So, do you agree or disagree with my grades?   I’ll do the pitchers later (dreading it).

No argument. I have no need to see more of Valaika.

I think most people won’t disagree with your thoughts, I think they echo everybody else’s.
It would be interesting to have a management grade: what management could have done to this point versus what they did do, how injuries disrupted things and such.

We can only grade the players we have, but the question remains whether those are the only players we could’ve had so far, given what’s available in the system.  I know little about the overall system, But it would be an interesting discussion.

Edit: The experiment seems to have ended, but putting Mountcastle in left field when he is not a leftfielder, Playing santander when he’s obviously hurting, and can neither run nor hit well, and so on, are examples.

Edited by Philip
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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ll do the pitchers in order of innings pitched.

Jorge Lopez, 2-10, 76.0 IP, 5.92 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, -0.1 rWAR: C.   This might seem like an outrageously lenient grade, but what were your expectations for the guy?   The mere fact that he leads the team in IP is a positive for him.   He’s really miscast as a starter who they try to stretch to 5-6 IP.  

Matt Harvey, 3-9, 72.1 IP, 7.34 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, -1.5 rWAR: F.   While there was no reason to expect anything from Harvey, an ERA over 7 is where I draw the line when it comes to handing out failing grades.   He’s trying valiantly so I give him credit for that.   Maybe he’s been slightly better his last couple of games?   Maybe?

John Means, 4-2, 71.0 IP, 2.28 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 5.3 K/BB, 3.1 rWAR: A.   I expected Means to be the best pitcher on our staff.   I didn’t expect him to be one of the top pitchers in the league.   The no-hitter was the icing on the cake.   The only reason he doesn’t join Mullins in the red-letter A+ club is that he’s landed on the IL.  

Bruce Zimmermann, 4-4, 59.1 IP, 4.83 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 0.7 rWAR: B.  While I can’t say Zimm has been a world-beater, he’s outpitched his higher-rated peers and generally hung in games.   Since my expectations were low, I could have gone with B+, but I dinged him for landing on the IL.

Dean Kremer, 0-7, 49.2 IP, 7.25 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, -0.7 rWAR: F.   I expected Kremer’s numbers to look more like Zimmermann’s.   His command has been very shaky and that was supposed to be a strong suit for him.    Looks like he’ll be an up and down guy all year shuttling to and from Norfolk.

Adam Plutko, 1-2, 41.2 IP, 5.18 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 7.8  K/9, 2.1 K/BB, -0.1 rWAR: B-.   Plutko pretty much goes in the Zimmermann category where I didn’t expect much.   He’s had some great games and some awful ones.   Overall he’s been useful sopping up innings after short starts.

Keegan Akin, 0-4, 38.0 IP, 7.11 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, -0.4 rWAR: F.   Another guy I thought might give us respectable back end numbers who has failed to do it.   To me, he doesn’t really have an out pitch.  

 Tyler Wells, 2-0, 35.2 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 4.1 K/BB, 0.6 rWAR: A-.   A steal in the Rule 5 draft, he’s done well in almost any role.   A keeper for sure.   Will be interesting to see if they try him as a starter in the future.

Dillon Tate, 0-3, 32.0 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 0.6 rWAR: B.   Tate has been a little hot and cold, and he doesn’t miss many bats.   But, he has been relatively solid.

 Paul Fry, 2-2, 30.2 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 12.0 K.9, 2.7 K/9, 0.8 rWAR: B+.   Until the last couple of weeks, he was the most consistent member of our bullpen.   He’s been walking more guys than I’d expect but has bene tough to hit.   I’m a little worried about his second half based on recent performance.

Tanner Scott, 3-2, 30.2 IP, 2.93 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 14.0 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 0.9 rWAR: B-.   Scott has the same IP as Fry, and a lower ERA.   I give him a lower grade because his lack of control drives me bananas.   26 walks in 30.2 innings, and some days he just has no idea how to throw his fastball in the strike zone.   I honestly wanted to give him a lower grade, but how can I argue with a 2.93 ERA?

Cole Sulser, 2-0, 30.2 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, 3.6 K/BB, 1.2 rWAR: A.    I had pretty low expectations for Sulser based on last year where he started well but collapsed as the year progressed.   But he was pitching then with a broken toe, and he’s shown he can miss bats and throw strikes at the same time.   He may regain the closer role.

Travis Lakins, 1-4, 28.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 1.4 K/9, -0.3 rWAR: D.   I wasn’t expecting much, but he’s been disappointing.   In particular, a guy with underwhelming stuff can’t walk 17 batters in 28 IP.

Cesar Valdez, 3-1, 26.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 4.1 K/BB, -0.3 rWAR: D-.   The carriage turned into a pumpkin very abruptly for the Cinderella story of 2020 and the first month of 2021.   At first nobody could figure him out, then suddenly everyone figured him out.   He’s on the IL now and let’s hope he figures out a new trick or he may not last the season.

Shawn Armstrong, 0-0, 20.0 IP, 8.55 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, -0.6 rWAR: F.   He was DFA and nobody wanted him, so he’s now toiling at Norfolk.   In addition to the horrible stats above, he allowed 9 of 11 inherited runners to score.

 

Everyone else gets an incomplete.

 

How many inherited runs did Scott allow? I don’t see how he can get a good grade because you literally never know whether he’s going to be good or awful from appearance to appearance, and it literally appears to be random and have nothing to do with rest or preparation. And you don’t know until after he’s started pitching.

Lopez deserves mercy because he goes beyond his limits almost every start.

Kremer and Akin have been very disappointing. I was hoping much more from each of them( and I’ve lowered my hopes for Lowther)and again Akin should be moved to the Pen or paired with Lopez as a tandem. Dunno what’s up with Kremer. Lakins and Plutko are more 10-for-12 guys: go to the store and the clearance rack is loaded with them.

Hope we see Baumann before too long.

Watkins gets an A+. Come on, the guy’s got a 0:0 ERA!

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Splitting hairs but I would give Scott a B+. Walks are his Achilles heel no doubt but sick 13.8 K/9, solid ERA+ translates to a good overall pitcher, just not elite. 

Scary that Jorge Lopez leads the staff in innings pitched. And this is a guy who can't make it through the 5th!

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3 hours ago, wildcard said:

The reason Valaika is still on the team is the don't have any one better.

Bet we do. And even if we don’t, everyone is a question mark. Valaika is not. Dump him and let’s get some evaluation of the other guys.

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