2021 1st round pick (5): Colton Cowser - OF - (Junior) Sam Houston University

[Philip]

52 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Did we not get good players at the back last year? 

Remains to be seen. We certainly lost Baumler to TJ, and the players at the back succeeding won’t necessarily compensate for the player at the front failing, even if it’s just bad luck that he fails. I think we have a greater need at short and I wish we taking a SS, But if this guy has a good eye, is a good defender, and can work a walk, those are all things we don’t have very much of so I’m OK. I don’t care if he only hit 15 home runs

[Sports Guy]

 

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, gman082288 said:

I've said multiple times, maybe it's a comprehension issue, that I'm not stating facts or know everything. I'm questioning and disagreeing with the strategy. I do not believe (that's an opinion word) this is an organization that can constantly afford to try and outsmart the entire industry. You clearly believe that they got first round talents in Mayo/Baumer and the strategy paid off. I don't know that to be fact but that's an opinion that is not shared by the majority of the industry. 

I understand you qualified your statement that you do not BELIEVE that this is an organization that can constantly afford to try and outsmart the entire industry.

But they're going to have to.  They're clearly not going to spend in the stratosphere with the Yankees and Sox.  They'll spend liket they did in the 2010s but they won't sustain that for years and years on end.

They have to outsmart the entire industry, there's really not another option.  Tampa does it, why can't we?

And quite frankly, this strategy really isn't outsmarting anyone.  It's not like it's revolutionary or something that people haven't seen before.

 

 

[Sydnor]

I’ll admit that I am certainly no expert, but I don’t like the pick (and I didn’t like the Kjerstad pick) because both picks were boring. You can dream on the potential of Khalil Watson or Brady House. You can remember Rocker’s no-hitter in the CWS and dream of him becoming an ace.
 

Elias has drafted a couple college outfielders that just aren’t exciting. With respect to Cowser, he’s a guy from Sam Houston that doesn’t have any jump off the page tools and just seems boring. Because he doesn’t appear to have any jump off the page tools, I don’t think it helps the biggest weakness of the system—high ceiling talent (in my opinion).

Regardless, Elias seems to be all-in on the build a pitcher and build a player model, where generally prefers quantity (with certain traits) over ceiling. Cowser should allow him to spread the pool to get quantity at a similar level again.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Get it out of the way early. They all break. Better to do it in the minors than when your clock starts. 

I mean, not really since those replacements tend not to last a whole career and coming back from #2 is a lot harder.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I understand you qualified your statement that you do not BELIEVE that this is an organization that can constantly afford to try and outsmart the entire industry.

But they're going to have to.  They're clearly not going to spend in the stratosphere with the Yankees and Sox.  They'll spend liket they did in the 2010s but they won't sustain that for years and years on end.

They have to outsmart the entire industry, there's really not another option.  Tampa does it, why can't we?

And quite frankly, this strategy really isn't outsmarting anyone.  It's not like it's revolutionary or something that people haven't seen before.

 

 

Because Tampa is one of the ones we have to outsmart.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

Remains to be seen. We certainly lost Baumler to TJ, and the players at the back succeeding won’t necessarily compensate for the player at the front failing, even if it’s just bad luck that he fails. I think we have a greater need at short and I wish we taking a SS, But if this guy has a good eye, is a good defender, and can work a walk, those are all things we don’t have very much of so I’m OK. I don’t care if he only hit 15 home runs

Baumler to TJ gets an eyeroll from me.  Practically every pitcher has to have that surgery at some point or another. 

But overall, yes, it remains to be seen.  That said, the quality of the talent picked in the later rounds appears to be pretty good.  

[Sports Guy]

I would love to hear Elias’ take on Cowser vs Austin Martin

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because Tampa is one of the ones we have to outsmart.

Yep, absolutely.

[Moose Milligan]

15 minutes ago, baltfan said:

He looked awful at short in Futures today 

Good.  

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

To piggyback on that, it's not like we just took a guy without any upside.  And it's not like we stretched way hard to pick someone who was projected at the late first round/early second round.

If we're going by mock drafts (really, that's all a lot of us have to go on) he was going to be picked anywhere from 10-15th, most likely.  So we reached a little bit, but not like the Royals with Frank Mozzarella.  

Big picture: we passed on Lawlar who arguably could have been 1, House with 30-40 hr potential as a SS/3rd and Rocker likely closer for a corner OFer with 20-25 hr potential. Big picture fellas, this was a bad pick.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yep, absolutely.

I don't think these incremental on the margins moves get it done.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Big picture: we passed on Lawlar who arguably could have been 1, House with 30-40 hr potential as a SS/3rd and Rocker likely closer for a corner OFer with 20-25 hr potential. Big picture fellas, this was a bad pick.

Lol, you're ridiculous.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think these incremental on the margins moves get it done.

I don't think there are any secrets anymore, either.  There's no more moneyball.

[Philip]

18 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I’m not sure you understand how the prospect FV scale works on Fangraphs prospect board. 50 is what Lawlar and Leiter and all of the other top guys were rated as well. 

Thank you for the clarification, but if they are all ranked the same, then what is the point of the rankings?