I'm starting to think we are 4-5 years away from competing for real

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

For the guys that have lost some shine, is part of that the development team Elias put into place?

If they get credit for the guys that progress....

Fair question.   But I don’t know the answer yet.  I want to stress that I haven’t given up on the players I mentioned, either.   Progress isn’t always linear.    But in terms of how those players were perceived in Nov. 2018 vs. now, they’ve taken a hit.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, Explosivo said:

Again, we have all the answers to the holes in our mlb club. Iron sharpens iron. Follow the boys at the Verge to get a taste of milb coverage. The Orioles are going to be special in two years and will remain special for the next five years after. This is going to be one of the best windows of opportunity we have ever had. The pitching is there waiting for their call ups. The infield answers are there waiting for their call ups. The catcher is there waiting for his call up. We are going to look back at this decade as one of Orioles dominance. You’ve just got to look at the talent we have coming up and really look at the top tier talent we already have on the team.

But the key is going to be Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall all need to be legit top prospects and produce when they get to MLB. If all three of them are decent the Orioles competitive window is going to open up fast. With this group the turnaround could mirror the 2011-12 Orioles where the club goes from bad to good overnight. 

[kidrock]

14 hours ago, fitzi22 said:

It’s really all about how you want to construct your team. Elias to this point has wanted to add talent via draft, trade for cheap/controllable pieces, and the fledgling international market.  Free agency is mostly ignored unless we can get a deal on a possibly tradeable player. It is difficult to build a competitive team just with the draft and trades. You need to have a successful international system to acquire nearly half of your players.  Good news is the O’s have made strides in this area. Bad news is it will take another 4-5 years for these players to be major contributors, so yes I agree with the opening post and believe we are this far away.  Which logically brings you to the place of trading away every player that you believe will not be a major contributor by then to help aquire additional talent.  

You worded your post better than my original post.  I just don't see this team competing for a real championship for a while.  500?  Sure, maybe by 2023.  But when guys like Adley, Grayson, Gunner, DL, etc come up, we cant expect them to produce year 1 at a high level.  They could, but it is unlikely that they all compete at a high level right away.  Because of that, I think Means and Mullins should be traded if the right offer comes across.  I would not trade them just for the sake of trading and don't think that Means is at peak value right now.  But I wouldn't be holding on to players in hopes that we compete by 2023.

I think its a given that Mancini won't be here by the time we are relevant, but I'm not sure what value he has in the market.

[spiritof66]

21 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

But the key is going to be Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall all need to be legit top prospects and produce when they get to MLB. If all three of them are decent the Orioles competitive window is going to open up fast. With this group the turnaround could mirror the 2011-12 Orioles where the club goes from bad to good overnight. 

Adding Rutschman to this year's Oriole offense (twelfth in the AL and fourth in the division, 4 runs ahead of the pre-Gallo NYYs) won't come close to creating a playoff team. It won't fill the gaping holes in the infield. We'll see whether the Orioles are willing to acquire proven ML hitting talent from outside the organization -- and to pay the salaries that talent will command -- to fill out the everyday lineup. My guess is that won't happen, or at least won't happen sufficiently, until there is new ownership of the Orioles with some new money the owners are willing and able to spend.

I'm guessing the Angelos/Elias strategy will be to wait and see whether promising prospects, especially infielders, who are already in the system turn out to have major league talent. I hope I'm wrong about that.

[kidrock]

2 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

It’s easy to forget that eventually there will be impact external additions. You don’t have to develop a 26 man roster from your minor league system alone. We just aren’t at that phase yet. Signing a SP or OF to a 4 year lucrative deal prior to say the 2020 season would be fruitless. But those types of deals will come. Our FA signings have been restricted to a cheap 1 year deal for a position hole that is in desperate need of a warm body. I’ve always thought of the end of 2022 (Chris Davis’ contract) as a new era in Baltimore baseball, whether that’s intentional or unintentional. Basically I think that means a new phase of the rebuild will begin. IMO Elias is doing everything right despite a few hiccups like jumping the gun on dumping Richard Belier, leaving Zach Pop unprotected, and the Mike Yaz swap. 

I'm not knocking Elias.  I know some are frustrated with him, but I am happy with his progress.  He's not perfect, but I like his plan/vision.

Just don't think this team is less than 4-5 years at a minimum away from getting 90-100 wins

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, kidrock said:

I'm not knocking Elias.  I know some are frustrated with him, but I am happy with his progress.  He's not perfect, but I like his plan/vision.

Just don't think this team is less than 4-5 years at a minimum away from getting 90-100 wins

If you think they are that far away, you are absolutely knocking Elias and the program/system is trying to do.

[Explosivo]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

Adding Rutschman to this year's Oriole offense (twelfth in the AL and fourth in the division, 4 runs ahead of the pre-Gallo NYYs) won't come close to creating a playoff team. It won't fill the gaping holes in the infield. We'll see whether the Orioles are willing to acquire proven ML hitting talent from outside the organization -- and to pay the salaries that talent will command -- to fill out the everyday lineup. My guess is that won't happen, or at least won't happen sufficiently, until there is new ownership of the Orioles with some new money the owners are willing and able to spend.

I'm guessing the Angelos/Elias strategy will be to wait and see whether promising prospects, especially infielders, who are already in the system turn out to have major league talent. I hope I'm wrong about that.

Have you been paying attention to Henderson, Westburg and Jones? That’s your future at third, short and second. All are performing above expectation. All will be on the team at the same time. Jones first of course.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Explosivo said:

Have you been paying attention to Henderson, Westburg and Jones? That’s your future at third, short and second. All are performing above expectation. All will be on the team at the same time. Jones first of course.

Jones’ defense at second apparently sucks.  I wouldn’t write him in at second quite yet.

[Explosivo]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Jones’ defense at second apparently sucks.  I wouldn’t write him in at second quite yet.

The bat is there however. Of the two, which do you think is easier to coach, hitting or fielding?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Explosivo said:

The bat is there however. Of the two, which do you think is easier to coach, hitting or fielding?

Neither.

[Explosivo]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Neither.

Be pessimistic all you’d like but I do think his defense picks up. We have seen it before with other players. Further, we have other options as well. Second base is easier to fill than short or third. All signs point to Henderson and Westburg being that tandem. They are already building report, best friends off the field and just last night went back to back. It’s very cool to see this all progress and be excited for the future if you allow yourself to see it.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

Adding Rutschman to this year's Oriole offense (twelfth in the AL and fourth in the division, 4 runs ahead of the pre-Gallo NYYs) won't come close to creating a playoff team. It won't fill the gaping holes in the infield. We'll see whether the Orioles are willing to acquire proven ML hitting talent from outside the organization -- and to pay the salaries that talent will command -- to fill out the everyday lineup. My guess is that won't happen, or at least won't happen sufficiently, until there is new ownership of the Orioles with some new money the owners are willing and able to spend.

I'm guessing the Angelos/Elias strategy will be to wait and see whether promising prospects, especially infielders, who are already in the system turn out to have major league talent. I hope I'm wrong about that.

I mean, this team spent $140 mm+ on payroll annually from 2015-17, so what makes you think they won’t spend when the time is right?   The time isn’t right yet, but I expect a steady ramp up beginning as early as this offseason.   Don’t forget that in 2023 we are no longer paying Davis $17 mm/yr (we’ll still be escrowing a bit less than $6 mm/yr through 2024 to fund his deferred comp payments).    

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Explosivo said:

Be pessimistic all you’d like but I do think his defense picks up. We have seen it before with other players. Further, we have other options as well. Second base is easier to fill than short or third. All signs point to Henderson and Westburg being that tandem. They are already building report, best friends off the field and just last night went back to back. It’s very cool to see this all progress and be excited for the future if you allow yourself to see it.

Got some examples of folks considered poor middle infielders that got coached up into average or better middle infielders? 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I mean, this team spent $140 mm+ on payroll annually from 2015-17, so what makes you think they won’t spend when the time is right?   The time isn’t right yet, but I expect a steady ramp up beginning as early as this offseason.   Don’t forget that in 2023 we are no longer paying Davis $17 mm/yr (we’ll still be escrowing a bit less than $6 mm/yr through 2024 to fund his deferred comp payments).    

Change in ownership combined with some really unusual cost cutting moves.

[NCRaven]

I don't think Jones is the long-term answer, and his offense has been off lately as well.  But he could be a better stop gap player than any of Leyba, Valaika or Wilkerson.  I also believe that Elias will supplement the developed core with free agents or significant trades when he believes that the team s ready to contend.