I’m about ready to give up on DJ Stewart

[Three Run Homer]

I'm not sure it's important to distinguish a "terrible" pick from an "average" pick.   Most draft picks don't produce positive WAR in the majors.   It might be too harsh to call all of these picks "terrible" and too generous to call all of them "average", but no matter what we call them, they do not create any value for major league teams. 

A valuable draft pick is one that creates positive WAR at the major league level, period.  It is a low-probability outcome, but some organizations achieve this outcome more often than others, and those are the organizations that are successful.  You can't evaluate a front office's ability based on one draft, but after a few drafts you have a large enough sample size that you can make statistically meaningful comparisons of draft WAR across teams.  

 

 

[Pickles]

40 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I'm not sure it's important to distinguish a "terrible" pick from an "average" pick.   Most draft picks don't produce positive WAR in the majors.   It might be too harsh to call all of these picks "terrible" and too generous to call all of them "average", but no matter what we call them, they do not create any value for major league teams. 

A valuable draft pick is one that creates positive WAR at the major league level, period.  It is a low-probability outcome, but some organizations achieve this outcome more often than others, and those are the organizations that are successful.  You can't evaluate a front office's ability based on one draft, but after a few drafts you have a large enough sample size that you can make statistically meaningful comparisons of draft WAR across teams.  

 

 

The first paragraph I very much agree with.

The bolded I very much disagree with.

Here's something to think about.  (I'm waiting to read Frobby's draft analysis so I can rip it apart with my poo-house lawyering.)

The Orioles in 1965 were basically about the best run franchise in MLB.  They were historically famous for their amateur acquisition and development.  The draft was initiated in that year from the old "Bonus Baby" system.  They were about to go on a 20 year run as the winningest team in MLB. 

And yet, look at these drafts!

1965:

Total WAR: (-) 2

Best Player: Charlie Sands (Career WAR 0.5)

1966:

Total WAR: 1.7

Best Player: Terry Crowley (Career WAR 2.4)

So yeah, two drafts!  And negative WAR in total!  tHe oRiOlE wAy!!! tHeSe gUyS dOnT kNoW wHaT tHeY'rE dOiNg!!!

1967:

Total WAR: 98.5

Best Player: Bobby Grich (Career WAR 71)\

Notable: Don Baylor (Career WAR 28.5)

Unsigned: Doug Rau (Career WAR 12.6)

 

So what happened?

Life is more random than we want to admit.

You can make all the right decisions, boys.  You still won't make it out alive.

 

 

 

[Pickles]

Oh, I totally forgot why I came here.  Stewart hit a solid dong tonight.  He also Kd badly.

But I was crapping on him all day, so I gotta come and give him his due.

[Philip]

34 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Oh, I totally forgot why I came here.  Stewart hit a solid dong tonight.  He also Kd badly.

But I was crapping on him all day, so I gotta come and give him his due.

“The blind squirrel finds a nut.”

[Pickles]

16 minutes ago, Philip said:

“The blind squirrel finds a nut.”

He's not blind.

He's just fringe.

[Philip]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

He's not blind.

He's just fringe.

“The fringe squirrel finds a nut.”

hmmmmm needs work…

[Three Run Homer]

14 hours ago, Pickles said:

The first paragraph I very much agree with.

The bolded I very much disagree with.

Here's something to think about.  (I'm waiting to read Frobby's draft analysis so I can rip it apart with my poo-house lawyering.)

The Orioles in 1965 were basically about the best run franchise in MLB.  They were historically famous for their amateur acquisition and development.  The draft was initiated in that year from the old "Bonus Baby" system.  They were about to go on a 20 year run as the winningest team in MLB. 

And yet, look at these drafts!

1965:

Total WAR: (-) 2

Best Player: Charlie Sands (Career WAR 0.5)

1966:

Total WAR: 1.7

Best Player: Terry Crowley (Career WAR 2.4)

So yeah, two drafts!  And negative WAR in total!  tHe oRiOlE wAy!!! tHeSe gUyS dOnT kNoW wHaT tHeY'rE dOiNg!!!

1967:

Total WAR: 98.5

Best Player: Bobby Grich (Career WAR 71)\

Notable: Don Baylor (Career WAR 28.5)

Unsigned: Doug Rau (Career WAR 12.6)

 

So what happened?

Life is more random than we want to admit.

You can make all the right decisions, boys.  You still won't make it out alive.

 

 

 

Actually you made my point.  You can't use one draft to evaluate a front office because most draft picks don't make it, even if you are picking the right players.  So you need several years of data.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Three Run Homer said:

Actually you made my point.  You can't use one draft to evaluate a front office because most draft picks don't make it, even if you are picking the right players.  So you need several years of data.

Well, that's my point.

How many years?

Because my point is the sample size still remains too small to make many determining assessments.  

[Aristotelian]

Cool bat flip too. Because his HR was so important to the outcome.

 

 

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Cool bat flip too. Because his HR was so important to the outcome.

Two months of frustration being released there.   And at the time, the game was still in reach (the HR brought it to 6-3 in the 4th inning).    So, I’ll give him something of a pass, though I’m not a fan of bat flips in general.   

[DrungoHazewood]

20 hours ago, Pickles said:

Well, that's my point.

How many years?

Because my point is the sample size still remains too small to make many determining assessments.  

I think that most of our draft analyses are ham-fisted.  Do we grade based in picks vs consensus?  Then what of differing strategies like going below-slot to pick better players later?  The consensus is attempting to rank players solely on how good they are.  If we grade based on who comes up with the most MLB production you're not grading the draft, you're grading a combination of (draft + development + injuries + luck + situation). 

I tend to grade by asking if the player picked seemed reasonable on the day of the draft based on the publicly information we have.  But we don't even have all of the information to make that meaningful.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Two months of frustration being released there.   And at the time, the game was still in reach (the HR brought it to 6-3 in the 4th inning).    So, I’ll give him something of a pass, though I’m not a fan of bat flips in general.   

I'm all good with our guys having fun, celebrating, being happy about winning.  It's a sport, it's a game, it's supposed to be fun.

But if Jose Bautista or some other opponent does it I'm fine with Rougned Odor'ing him.

[O's84]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm all good with our guys having fun, celebrating, being happy about winning.  It's a sport, it's a game, it's supposed to be fun.

But if Jose Bautista or some other opponent does it I'm fine with Rougned Odor'ing him.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, O's84 said:

This photo should be hanging in a museum.

[SteveA]

53 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

This photo should be hanging in a museum.

They could have a special wing in Cooperstown.   That picture.   One of Ryan vs Ventura, maybe.  Maybe one of George Brett losing his mind in the pine tar game.   Billy and Reggie going at it in the dugout.   Earl going nose to chin with an ump.   I don't know if there is a photo of Ty Cobb going into the stands and beating up a handicapped person.   Maybe no one brought their cell phone to the game that day.