I’m about ready to give up on DJ Stewart

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If you sign a 4th OF, McKenna likely goes back to AAA where he OPS'd over 1.000.  He needs to sink or swim at the ML level.  There's only one way to find out.  Even a contender would probably ride with McKenna.  No reason for the Orioles not to.

I seriously doubt McKenna wouid OPS 1.000 in a full AAA season.   We’re talking about a guy who had a .684 OPS in 817 PA in AA and .559 in 197 PA in the majors.    So I don’t put much credence in the 123 PA he had in AAA.  I do think it’s reasonable to expect better than .559 in the majors from him.   But I’m not sure he can reach .700+.   

For me, Stewart is not a good defender but he’s got a place in the big leagues if he can put up a .750ish OPS with a .340ish OBP component.  He didn’t do that last year but I think he could be capable of it based on his full major league/minor league profile.   He has to go out and prove it.   

As to Stowers, I expect him to be a solid defender who is better than Stewart, not as good as McKenna in that regard.  He’ll certainly outhit McKenna but I don’t know if he will outperform Stewart or not offensively.   Gun to my head, I’d pick Stowers to be better overall than either Stewart or McKenna, but it’s not a given.   He hit a little better than Stewart in AA, not quite as well in AAA.   The majors are always an adjustment, so we’ll see.   

 

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I seriously doubt McKenna wouid OPS 1.000 in a full AAA season.   We’re talking about a guy who had a .684 OPS in 817 PA in AA and .559 in 197 PA in the majors.    So I don’t put much credence in the 123 PA he had in AAA.  I do think it’s reasonable to expect better than .559 in the majors from him.   But I’m not sure he can reach .700+.   

For me, Stewart is not a good defender but he’s got a place in the big leagues if he can put up a .750ish OPS with a .340ish OBP component.  He didn’t do that last year but I think he could be capable of it based on his full major league/minor league profile.   He has to go out and prove it.   

As to Stowers, I expect him to be a solid defender who is better than Stewart, not as good as McKenna in that regard.  He’ll certainly outhit McKenna but I don’t know if he will outperform Stewart or not offensively.   Gun to my head, I’d pick Stowers to be better overall than either Stewart or McKenna, but it’s not a given.   He hit a little better than Stewart in AA, not quite as well in AAA.   The majors are always an adjustment, so we’ll see.   

 

Stowers  just turned 24 and I don't think he is done at AAA.   He will probably have to improve at AAA before they have him make the jump to the majors.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Stowers  just turned 24 and I don't think he is done at AAA.   He will probably have to improve at AAA before they have him make the jump to the majors.

I agree.    He’s probably a June/July call up if either Stewart or McKenna isn’t hitting well enough to keep their job.   To be clear, in my mind they have different jobs, Stewart bat-first and McKenna glove-first, but they still each have an offensive threshold they need to reach to be worth keeping IMO (.750ish for Stewart, .680ish for McKenna).

And to be clear, I don’t rule out SG’s suggestion that they go get another OF from outside the organization.  But, until they do it we may as well discuss what the current scenarios are.   

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree.    He’s probably a June/July call up if either Stewart or McKenna isn’t hitting well enough to keep their job.   To be clear, in my mind they have different jobs, Stewart bat-first and McKenna glove-first, but they still each have an offensive threshold they need to reach to be worth keeping IMO (.750ish for Stewart, .680ish for McKenna).

And to be clear, I don’t rule out SG’s suggestion that they go get another OF from outside the organization.  But, until they do it we may as well discuss what the current scenarios are.   

If they didn't have Stowers I could see them adding a FA outfielder.  But I don't think they want to block Stowers by adding another OFer.

[Sports Guy]

It also depends on what they want to do with Mateo.  If they believe he gets a lot of OF time, that factors in as well.  
 

Not that it should but it will.  Again the goal should be to get better but we all know that’s not the goal.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It also depends on what they want to do with Mateo.  If they believe he gets a lot of OF time, that factors in as well.  
 

Not that it should but it will.  Again the goal should be to get better but we all know that’s not the goal.

The way the O's need infielders I don't see Mateo playing much OF.

[OriolesMagic83]

With the new LF dimensions, I don't see him playing much LF.  This definitely gives McKenna an edge as the O's 4th OF.  I can definitely see Stowers outhitting Stewart whenever he is called up.  Not sure what Stewart's role is anymore.  No room for pinch hitters on modern teams w/ 14 man bullpens. 

[Philip]

So when will the goal become “get better”? That’s what I want to know. Remember the Soviet Union’s “Five year plan“ Lasted for the entire lifetime of the Soviet union. I don’t want that to be Elias’ approach.

[Frobby]

54 minutes ago, Philip said:

So when will the goal become “get better”? That’s what I want to know. Remember the Soviet Union’s “Five year plan“ Lasted for the entire lifetime of the Soviet union. I don’t want that to be Elias’ approach.

In my opinion, that’s the goal NOW.   If the record doesn’t improve pretty significantly in 2022, something is wrong.  

Now, you might say, the team hasn’t made big moves to improve, so why do I expect improvement?    First of all, the offseason isn’t over.   Second, I think the little moves they’ve made help at the margins, even though I’m not excited about them.   But third and by far most importantly, I think the younger players who were on the team last year will improve with experience and they will get help from guys coming up from the minors, especially Rutschman and Rodriguez.  If that doesn’t happen, little else matters.   
 

[Philip]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In my opinion, that’s the goal NOW.   If the record doesn’t improve pretty significantly in 2022, something is wrong.  

Now, you might say, the team hasn’t made big moves to improve, so why do I expect improvement?    First of all, the offseason isn’t over.   Second, I think the little moves they’ve made help at the margins, even though I’m not excited about them.   But third and by far most importantly, I think the younger players who were on the team last year will improve with experience and they will get help from guys coming up from the minors, especially Rutschman and Rodriguez.  If that doesn’t happen, little else matters.   
 

Yes I agree completely, I think that natural progression has gotten to the point where we need to stop focusing on acquiring future talent and start exhibiting our current talent. I don’t necessarily think we need to blow a bunch of money on a high dollar free agent, as a matter fact I oppose that. But it’s time to cut bait on a lot of people, and it’s time to give others a meaningful opportunity. Last year’s use of our pitching staff was pretty inexplicable in a lot of ways.

But Mike Elias hasn’t said anything about flipping the switch, as far as we know, he still doesn’t care about the on field product.

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It also depends on what they want to do with Mateo.  If they believe he gets a lot of OF time, that factors in as well.  
 

Not that it should but it will.  Again the goal should be to get better but we all know that’s not the goal.

And you call CoC (and ME!) a troll.   I wish I had a dollar for every time you throw this in a post.   The goal is to have a competetive team, longterm, with sustainability.     Their short term goals do not match what you desire.   Please get over it!

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Philip said:

Yes I agree completely, I think that natural progression has gotten to the point where we need to stop focusing on acquiring future talent and start exhibiting our current talent. I don’t necessarily think we need to blow a bunch of money on a high dollar free agent, as a matter fact I oppose that. But it’s time to cut bait on a lot of people, and it’s time to give others a meaningful opportunity. Last year’s use of our pitching staff was pretty inexplicable in a lot of ways.

But Mike Elias hasn’t said anything about flipping the switch, as far as we know, he still doesn’t care about the on field product.

Here is what he has said:

“We think that this team will continuously get better from this point forward. That’s what I think. We have a lot of young talent here. Young talent tends to get better. We know we’re far away from the other competitors on our division, all four of them. We’ve got a ways to go to get back in that fight and we’re being mindful of that first and foremost, the ultimate goal, which is to get to that level of play that we’re going to need to to compete consistently in this division. So that’s going to be first and foremost in our thinking and our front office’s thinking and we don’t want to do anything to derail or shortchange that. But I do think there are ways to simultaneously allow our internal players the opportunity to continue to get playing time and not being blocked when we have an interesting player that we want to see play for a while, that can help bolster this team so it is better on a night-to-night basis and also kind of carry forward our long-term goal. So we’re going to try to reconcile all of those different goals and what we do this winter, whether that’s free agents or trades or other types of acquisitions.”
https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2021/09/elias-on-coaching-staff-starting-pitching-free-agents-and-more.html

So, to me Elias has stated that he expects the team to start getting better from here.   And that is what I expect too.   I don’t think it’s true that Elias doesn’t care about the on-the-field product.    He does care, but he cares more about what is best for the long term success of the franchise than he does about the short term.   As he should, IMO.

[LookinUp]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

If you sign a 4th OF, McKenna likely goes back to AAA where he OPS'd over 1.000.  He needs to sink or swim at the ML level.  There's only one way to find out.  Even a contender would probably ride with McKenna.  No reason for the Orioles not to.

Frobby kind of already made this point, but if McKenna is really a 1.000 OPS guy consistently in AAA then he'll be a fine MLer too, particularly given his defensive profile.

There's no reason sending him back to AAA to show that wasn't just a SSS streak would be unfair to him. Heck, he could really prove something if he could put up really good numbers for a few months in AAA. That might allow him to actually earn an extended look at the ML level.

I don't believe he's earned that at this point though.

[RZNJ]

20 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Frobby kind of already made this point, but if McKenna is really a 1.000 OPS guy consistently in AAA then he'll be a fine MLer too, particularly given his defensive profile.

There's no reason sending him back to AAA to show that wasn't just a SSS streak would be unfair to him. Heck, he could really prove something if he could put up really good numbers for a few months in AAA. That might allow him to actually earn an extended look at the ML level.

I don't believe he's earned that at this point though.

I never said he was a 1.000 OPS player.  I said he put up a 1.000 OPS and in 125 AB's, I'd still say that he earned a promotion.   Sure, we can send him back and see if he can OPS .800 or .900 over a full season but it seemed pretty clear that his biggest weakness was high velocity up in the zone.  He plays plus defense and can run and performs about the way you would expect a 4th OF to perform already.    If he's going to learn to hit or lay off the high fastball then why not do that in the place where they were exploiting that?

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I never said he was a 1.000 OPS player.  I said he put up a 1.000 OPS and in 125 AB's, I'd still say that he earned a promotion.   Sure, we can send him back and see if he can OPS .800 or .900 over a full season but it seemed pretty clear that his biggest weakness was high velocity up in the zone.  He plays plus defense and can run and performs about the way you would expect a 4th OF to perform already.    If he's going to learn to hit or lay off the high fastball then why not do that in the place where they were exploiting that?

Because the majors aren't the only place that exploits that. The best orgs work these problems up before they're getting meaningful ABs to the greatest extent possible.

I'm not saying they fix every problem, but McKenna really doesn't deserve ML time without fixing holes in his swing. AAA is a great place to work on that.