2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[waroriole]

 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

 

Is this supposed to mean something?

[Sports Guy]

https://www.mlb.com/news/orioles-first-overall-pick-2022-mlb-draft-options

[waroriole]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Is this supposed to mean something?

Adley’s tits have spoken. No Druw Jones

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Adley’s tits have spoken. No Druw Jones

But is that supposed to mean anything?  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

But is that supposed to mean anything?  

I learned that Waroriole follows Adley's tits on social media.

[waroriole]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

But is that supposed to mean anything?  

I doubt it. Who knows. I just think the Twitter name is funny. He just implied that Mancini is being traded too. 

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The whole “won’t know until Sunday” stuff is so odd.  If you don’t know by now, something is wrong.

It’s all gamesmanship and negotiating.   Whoever they want, they want to get as cheaply as possible.  And one way you do that is by creating the impression of uncertainly about who you want.  It doesn’t help negotiations with Player X to let Player X know he’s the team’s clear favorite.  

[Sports Guy]

Kileys latest mock:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/34211201/2022-mlb-mock-draft-30-kiley-mcdaniel-predicts-first-two-rounds
 

Baltimore Orioles

Druw Jones, CF, Wesleyan HS (GA), Vanderbilt commit

The buzz has been consistent for a couple weeks now that Jones would be a full-freight option here, and Termarr Johnson is the most likely of the other options because he'd come with the biggest discount due to likely slipping to the sixth pick if he doesn't go here. I've been saying I think it's roughly a ⅔ chance of Jones and ⅓ chance of "other," with Johnson the overwhelming choice, but Jackson Holliday (likely priced between Jones and Johnson) also mentioned as the other leading candidate. The savings to use later in the draft by going with Johnson could be $2 million or more and, at that point, even I would entertain taking my second-rated player (Johnson) instead of my top-rated player (Jones). Anyone outside of those three would be much harder to explain. The day they sign, I would have all three close on a top 100 of minor leaguers: Jones at 24th, Johnson at 30th and Holliday at 36th, with no one else in this class making the top 75.
 

This is extremely similar to the situation that landed the Astros SS Carlos Correa as the top overall pick in the 2012 draft when current Orioles GM Mike Elias was Houston's scouting director. Correa signed for $2.4 million under slot and Houston used the savings to sign Lance McCullers as the No. 41 pick.

The two factors that will help dictate this decision for Elias is 1) what's the gap in his mind between Johnson and Jones and 2) who does he think he could land with that extra savings that may not be attainable otherwise?

You'd need a player that's worth/demanding $3.5 million or more and can make it down the board to pick 33. A couple weeks ago, Oklahoma RHP Cade Horton was a candidate and still could be, but now it's looking like he won't get out of the middle of the first round. Illinois prep LHP Noah Schultz is seen as the played hardest to sign still in the draft pool, but he has the traits that Baltimore tends to like in pitchers, could get to their next pick and is a legitimate mid-first round talent in some scouts' eyes.

Beyond those two, it gets hard to find a player for well over $3 million and then Baltimore, if they opt for savings at the first pick, would have trouble stringing together $2 million type players and have spent the bulk of their money by the top of the fourth round, when players of that caliber that are signable are usually all picked so it becomes a more challenging strategy. Some later pick targets include Gavin Turley, Jordan Beck (if he gets down there), and Ryan Cermak.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

Few other notes:

Holliday goes 2, Johnson goes 6 and Lee goes 8.

He also predicts the Orioles next 3 picks and only one of them is a P. (High school)

[Frobby]

Hey SG, do an old man a favor.  Next time you cut and paste a quote, click the option that says “use plain text” so that I don’t go blind trying to read it!

The substance of the quote is interesting.   Overall, I don’t like the strategy of saving money by choosing a second option and then hoping that the one guy you’re hoping to spend the savings on will be there when your next pick rolls around.   I only like the strategy when (1) the players you are choosing from are very close in your opinion, and (2) you are very confident that there will be multiple options for deploying the savings.  But if Kiley would rank Jones 24 and Johnson 30, that’s pretty close.  Who knows what Elias & co. think about that.   

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Few other notes:

Holliday goes 2, Johnson goes 6 and Lee goes 8.

He also predicts the Orioles next 3 picks and only one of them is a P. (High school)

If you don't mind, who are those 3 picks?  

[RZNJ]

I am hoping McDaniel is right on the 2/3 chance of going Jones.

[Frobby]

I also find it interesting that Kiley would rank Jones 24, Johnson 30, Holliday 36 with nobody else in the top 75, and yet he thinks Johnson will slide to 6th if the O’s don’t pick him.   I guess that means Kiley likes Johnson a lot more than the 2-5 slotted teams do.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I also find it interesting that Kiley would rank Jones 24, Johnson 30, Holliday 36 with nobody else in the top 75, and yet he thinks Johnson will slide to 6th if the O’s don’t pick him.   I guess that means Kiley likes Johnson a lot more than the 2-5 slotted teams do.

It’s what I asked yesterday.  If he’s so good, why do so many mocks have him outside the top 3 if Os don’t take him.