Nice to see some international names cracking our top 30

[Frobby]

12.  Samuel Basallo, 16 year old C in DSL

13.  Jean Pinto, 20 year old RHP in low A.

14. Maikol Hernandez, 17 year old SS in DSL.

22. Felix Bautista, 26 year old RHP in AAA.

25.  Mishael Deson, 18 year old CF in FCL/low A.

30.  Raul Rangel, 18 year old RHP in FCL.

That’s by far the most international prospects I ever recall seeing on an OH top 30 list.  

There’s a few others who may not have warranted top 30 treatment, but are interesting IMO:

- Junior Lara, 17 year old OF who started the DSL late but posted .344/.434/.500 in 24 games.

- Stiven Acevedo, 18 year old OF who posted .254/.319/.346 in the FCL

- Anderson de los Santos, 17 year old SS/3B who posted .324/.409/.495 in the DSL.

- Moises Ramirez, 19 year old 3B who posted .314/.341/.537 in the FCL.

I’m looking forward to seeing how all these guys progress next year.   

[interloper]

Heck yeah. More are sure to be on the way. If there's one guy who fans should be confident in even more than Elias, especially if you're not that into Elias, it's Koby Perez. That dude knows what he's doing IMO.  

[UMDTerrapins]

Good point!  And presumably we'll add Braylin Tavera and Leandro Arias (and others) come January. Then add a full amateur draft from the #1 slot come July. We're going to be incredibly deep on talent. This is going to be a really fun run for the Orioles. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Good point!  And presumably we'll add Braylin Tavera and Leandro Arias (and others) come January. Then add a full amateur draft from the #1 slot come July. We're going to be incredibly deep on talent. This is going to be a really fun run for the Orioles. 

Assuming they develop it properly.

[LookinUp]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Assuming they develop it properly.

Which is probably a safer assumption that at almost any time in my lifetime. By safer, I mean they're less likely to ruin actually talented guys, and may even help several take a step forward.

By the way, the guy I want to see more of is De La Cruz. I don't know a ton about him, but have heard good things. Then there's this neat thread in the minors forum that SG started on barrell percentage. Worth a look if others haven't seen it yet.

 

[Yossarian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Assuming they develop it properly.

Even if we only hit on 75%, that is still a respectable base for a good ball club for a 5-8 year window.  Add in some FA arms and a position player here and there, and we could enjoy a nice run.  Get in line for season tickets.  I will definitely have to make some trips east from the left coast.

[jabba72]

1 hour ago, Yossarian said:

Even if we only hit on 75%, that is still a respectable base for a good ball club for a 5-8 year window.  Add in some FA arms and a position player here and there, and we could enjoy a nice run.  Get in line for season tickets.  I will definitely have to make some trips east from the left coast.

If we hit on 75% of our international prospects that would make us the best farm system in baseball by far, IMO. Maybe even a regular playoff team as well. So I think its unrealistic to hit on that many prospects. Just think of all the 1st round picks over the years that haven't panned out. I will say I like our international guys alot even if they are all in the lower levels. Pinto, who wasnt signed by Baltimore, will be the first in the latest crop to test High A. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

If we hit on 75% of our international prospects that would make us the best farm system in baseball by far, IMO. Maybe even a regular playoff team as well. So I think its unrealistic to hit on that many prospects. Just think of all the 1st round picks over the years that haven't panned out. I will say I like our international guys alot even if they are all in the lower levels. Pinto, who wasnt signed by Baltimore, will be the first in the latest crop to test High A. 

Sure, the hit rate will never be that high.   On average, a major league team brings up 2-3 players per year that started out as international amateurs.  Figure teams are signing 15-30 of these guys every year.   A lot are filler, you have maybe 5-8 guys a year you have high hopes for.  Still less than half of those reach the majors.   

[waroriole]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sure, the hit rate will never be that high.   On average, a major league team brings up 2-3 players per year that started out as international amateurs.  Figure teams are signing 15-30 of these guys every year.   A lot are filler, you have maybe 5-8 guys a year you have high hopes for.  Still less than half of those reach the majors.   

Yeah I think some people are not accounting for a few guys just never being healthy enough to make an impact. And there will be a couple that end up in relief/utility roles. If 5 end up as contributing major leaguers, that’s a good return. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Yeah I think some people are not accounting for a few guys just never being healthy enough to make an impact. And there will be a couple that end up in relief/utility roles. If 5 end up as contributing major leaguers, that’s a good return. 

Overall, the failure rate among prospects is much higher than many people appreciate.  Also the disappointment rate.   As I documented it earlier this year, the mean draft produces about 23.2 WAR, with the median at 14.5.   You can infer from this that a typical international class for a team produces maybe 9 WAR, with the median around 6.     A farm system has maybe 150-200 players in it at any given time, and maybe 30-35 of those will reach the majors, and many of those only for a brief time.   More than half of major leaguers never even make it to arbitration.   

[NCRaven]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Assuming they develop it properly.

Is Debbie your middle name Ms. Downer?

[Chaka Garcia]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

12.  Samuel Basallo, 16 year old C in DSL

13.  Jean Pinto, 20 year old RHP in low A.

14. Maikol Hernandez, 17 year old SS in DSL.

22. Felix Bautista, 26 year old RHP in AAA.

25.  Mishael Deson, 18 year old CF in FCL/low A.

30.  Raul Rangel, 18 year old RHP in FCL.

That’s by far the most international prospects I ever recall seeing on an OH top 30 list.  

There’s a few others who may not have warranted top 30 treatment, but are interesting IMO:

- Junior Lara, 17 year old OF who started the DSL late but posted .344/.434/.500 in 24 games.

- Stiven Acevedo, 18 year old OF who posted .254/.319/.346 in the FCL

- Anderson de los Santos, 17 year old SS/3B who posted .324/.409/.495 in the DSL.

- Moises Ramirez, 19 year old 3B who posted .314/.341/.537 in the FCL.

I’m looking forward to seeing how all these guys progress next year.   

I was planning to bring up Moises Ramirez too. Surprised a young infielder who had a good BA/power did not get an edge over the other DSL guys. Maybe his defense was so-so and may go down the defensive ladder?

Edited November 18, 2021 by Chaka Garcia

[sportsfan8703]

Elias has pulled off some slick trades to really help backfill the missing years of not signing int’l guys. The good thing about acquiring int’l guys in trades is that it doesn’t affect your 40 man roster because they are HS age. Plus we don’t draft HS kids.