The Mullins market

[NJOriolesFan]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

There are plenty of negatives if that is the way you want to go.  But there are a lot of positives if things fall right.  Adley is a major upgrade.   Tyler Wells to the rotation.  Grayson up in May.  The infield is unsettled.  We don't know  what Urias, Mateo and Owings will bring.  Bautista throwing 100mph.  Baker given a chance may be part of the pen. Lopez could be great out of the pen. Bradish should be near ready.

Overall health is a big deal.  Healthy Mancini, Hays and Santander could be big.  Mountcastle could hit 40 homers.  He was on that pace in the 2nd half of 2021.  Mullins is an All-Star and does not have to regress.  Westburg, DL Hall, Stowers and Ortiz could all be in the majors in the 2nd half.

I don't know how much of this pans out.   All I can say is its too early to know what will happen. When a young team gels anything can happen.

But who cares?  Let's say all of that happens and we win 80 games (likely impossible).  What does that do for us?  In our division that is 5th place and haven't done much to bridge the talent gap.  Everybody talks about how far our minor league system has come (which it has) but how many young star players do we have compared to our competitors?  The ideal way to look at things is look at each of our competitors projected depth charts for 2025.  We are miles behind with the youth and prospects those in our division have now.  We have to get more major league ready players and not be so worried about 2022 or even 2023.  

[yark14]

3 minutes ago, NJOriolesFan said:

But who cares?  Let's say all of that happens and we win 80 games (likely impossible).  What does that do for us?  In our division that is 5th place and haven't done much to bridge the talent gap.  Everybody talks about how far our minor league system has come (which it has) but how many young star players do we have compared to our competitors?  The ideal way to look at things is look at each of our competitors projected depth charts for 2025.  We are miles behind with the youth and prospects those in our division have now.  We have to get more major league ready players and not be so worried about 2022 or even 2023.  

I couldn't disagree more with your statement about our projected depth chart in 2025.  With our young core we should compete very well with our division.  Plus we aren't wrapped up in big longterm contracts, so we have lots of payroll flexibility the next few years to go after free agents to fill any missing holes.

 

[LookinUp]

32 minutes ago, NJOriolesFan said:

...I would be all in but we may get a better return at the deadline from teams looking to make a playoff push. ...

This is where I'm at with Mullins and Mancini.

I do think there's more risk with Mullins, as his 2nd half OPS was ~.100 less than his first half OPS last year. I think he'll be good, but don't think he'll sustain anything like 5.0 WAR. He's more of a nice 3.0 WAR guy, IMO. Hope I'm wrong.

[UMDTerrapins]

At what point do we start getting concerned about Mullins? I know it’s just ST and a small sample size……is he playing hurt?

[wildcard]

48 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

At what point do we start getting concerned about Mullins? I know it’s just ST and a small sample size……is he playing hurt?

He was a All-Star last year.  Its ST,  He has not even woke up yet.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, UMDTerrapins said:

At what point do we start getting concerned about Mullins? I know it’s just ST and a small sample size……is he playing hurt?

 

46 minutes ago, wildcard said:

He was a All-Star last year.  Its ST,  He has not even woke up yet.

I don't necessarily begrudge anyone for worrying about Mullins since it remains hard to believe his 2021 season actually happened. So I get being jumpy about his spring training and looking for signs of midnight pumpkins. But ultimately, we can draw no conclusions from 15 spring ABs. 

[maybenxtyr]

16 minutes ago, interloper said:

 

I don't necessarily begrudge anyone for worrying about Mullins since it remains hard to believe his 2021 season actually happened. So I get being jumpy about his spring training and looking for signs of midnight pumpkins. But ultimately, we can draw no conclusions from 15 spring ABs. 

I want him to have another good season just because he is an O's player and a good story. Also, I don't want to see the barrage of "he should have been traded after 2021" posts.

[oriole]

32 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I want him to have another good season just because he is an O's player and a good story. Also, I don't want to see the barrage of "he should have been traded after 2021" posts.

I’ll start. He should have been traded during the 2021 season.

[UMDTerrapins]

As I wrote my post I knew it was one of those things that’s probably better left unsaid….it’s so early and it’s spring training. Two strikeouts today and 1 total base in 15 ABs just had me wondering. 

[maybenxtyr]

6 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

As I wrote my post I knew it was one of those things that’s probably better left unsaid….it’s so early and it’s spring training. Two strikeouts today and 1 total base in 15 ABs just had me wondering. 

There's nothing wrong with wondering. He came out of nowhere and had an excellent season. 

[oriole]

9 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

As I wrote my post I knew it was one of those things that’s probably better left unsaid….it’s so early and it’s spring training. Two strikeouts today and 1 total base in 15 ABs just had me wondering. 

To be fair, Chris Davis had a Spring OPS of 1.468 in 2020. Sometimes spring stats just don’t reflect the ability of the player.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

On 3/22/2022 at 6:38 AM, wildcard said:

Grayson up in May.

GrayRod will not be up in the first half (and may not be up before September) no matter how well he pitches in the minors. Elias is not going to risk him earning a full year of service time this year.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

GrayRod will not be up in the first half (and may not be up before September) no matter how well he pitches in the minors. Elias is not going to risk him earning a full year of service time this year.

Not earning a full year of service means he has to stay in the minors for 15 days.

[Can_of_corn]

53 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Not earning a full year of service means he has to stay in the minors for 15 days.

Read the new CBA.

[wildcard]

53 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Read the new CBA.

OK, what am I missing?   Grayson and Adley would have to be in the top 2 in rookie of the year voting to get a full year if they stay in the minors for 15 days.   I don't think they are going to be held down for two to three months to avoid that.