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O’s sign Jordan Lyles

LookinUp

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Sports Guy
Sports Guy

So, he doesn’t miss bats, he doesn’t get Ks, HR rate is high, his FIP and xFIP were in line with his ERA and he was overpaid.  His walk rate is good though. He isn’t good.     Now, all of

interloper
interloper
Tony-OH
Tony-OH

First concern: He allowed 38 home runs last year and if he were pitching in Camden Yards it would have been 45. Expect a lot of souvenirs.   Second concern: He'll pitch at 31 years old and was no

DrinkinWithFermi All-Star

DrinkinWithFermi

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I give it a greater than 0% chance that he pitches well enough that the O's flip the contract to another team

I do not:

19 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

5.49 FIP, 1.43 WHIP, 9.9 H/9, and 1.9 HR/9 over his 2 years in Texas.

He's going to get absolutely NUKED in the AL East.

 

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean, innings and taking the ball every 5th day was definitely addressed.

Of course, the quality of those innings is also part of that.  Still, if he can give us a 5ish ERA and throw even 170 innings in 2022, they will have gotten some level of value out of him.

7 IP and 4 runs allowed is a 5.14 ERA.  A QS is a 4.5 ERA.  You take either of those starts every time.  That keeps you in the game most of the time.

If he keeps us in games 75% of the time he goes out there, that’s fine.  

I agree if you squint you can see some value here I just think $7M is a lot for this level of production. Straily and Tommy Milone had pretty similar resumes and we got them on minor league deals. Lyles career WAR is under 0, we should not have to pay $7M for that. Granted $7M is not the end of the world. I guess the best argument here is that this is an investment to help protect the developing arms in the bullpen.

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Aglets Hangout Grand Counsel

Aglets

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This more than doubles the previous record for a FA contract given out by Elias.   Yeah it isn't someone anyone of us are super excited about......but i think that stat in a vacuum is a positive sign.   Yeah he was replacement level over 180 innings last year.   That is an improvement over what Harvey gave us.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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I kind of doubt he has a 6-7 ERA but I don’t think you can completely rule it out.

By park factors, OPACY was the second most friendly hitters park and the new Rangers stadium was more of a pitchers park.  The AL East teams scored roughly 300 more runs than the AL West teams did.

And the Rangers were actually a pretty good defense last year, at least by FG measures. (Os werent too bad either although there was a big difference in OAA)

So it’s certainly possible that his numbers are worse here. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Well, this move is certainly underwhelming, but I do think there’s a good chance Lyles is better than Harvey or Lopez was last year.   Not a sure thing though.  $7 mm for this guy is clearly an overpay but that’s what it takes to get pitchers to come here right now.  

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Just now, Frobby said:

Well, this move is certainly underwhelming, but I do think there’s a good chance Lyles is better than Harvey or Lopez was last year.   Not a sure thing though.  $7 mm for this guy is clearly an overpay but that’s what it takes to get pitchers to come here right now.  

Almost guaranteed he's going to be better than King Felix.

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DrinkinWithFermi All-Star

DrinkinWithFermi

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1 minute ago, Aglets said:

That is an improvement over what Harvey gave us.

I am not sure I would bet on Jordan Lyles' 2022 exceeding Matt Harvey's 2021.

Lyles' 2022 FIP was about 3/4 of a run higher than Harvey's, and his HR/9 was almost a full 50% higher, and that was despite pitching in a much more forgiving division than Harvey.

 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I am not sure I would bet on Jordan Lyles' 2022 exceeding Matt Harvey's 2021.

Lyles' 2022 FIP was about 3/4 of a run higher than Harvey's, and his HR/9 was almost a full 50% higher, and that was despite pitching in a much more forgiving division than Harvey.

 

But only 127.2 IP. 

I'm sure if you only pick Lyles' best 127.2 innings his numbers would be superior to Harvey's.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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8 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I am not sure I would bet on Jordan Lyles' 2022 exceeding Matt Harvey's 2021.

Lyles' 2022 FIP was about 3/4 of a run higher than Harvey's, and his HR/9 was almost a full 50% higher, and that was despite pitching in a much more forgiving division than Harvey.

 

Yea, I think this is fair to say.  
 

Of course, the big difference is the amount of innings in only 4 more appearances but still, the quality of the innings could be similar.

Harvey gave up 4 runs or less in 71% of his starts (Lyles was at 75%) but he only went 6 IP or more in 5 of his starts(3 starts in a row in July).  That is 18%.  Lyles did that 56% of the time.  
 

 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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16 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I am not sure I would bet on Jordan Lyles' 2022 exceeding Matt Harvey's 2021.

Lyles' 2022 FIP was about 3/4 of a run higher than Harvey's, and his HR/9 was almost a full 50% higher, and that was despite pitching in a much more forgiving division than Harvey.

 

I don’t really care about Harvey’s FIP.    For me, FIP is nothing more than a rough predictive tool.  In terms of whether Lyles will be better than Harvey was last year,  I care about Harvey’s actual results last year, not his FIP.   Harvey had a 6.27 ERA, and Lyles’ ERA and his FIP were significantly lower than that (both last year and in his career).

FWIW, I like BaseballSavant’s xERA much better than FIP, since it accounts for quality of contact in a way that FIP does not.   Both Lyles and Harvey had a 5.41 xERA last year.

Your point about the AL East being tougher is well taken.    Lyles has pitched surprisingly few games in AL East ballparks.   We’ll see how that goes.  

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