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O’s sign Jordan Lyles

LookinUp

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ScGO's All-Star

ScGO's

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Lyle's probably had similar 1 year deals on the table for about 4 to 5 mil.

The O's probably felt it was worth throwing a couple more mil at him as he's probably the best innings eater that can be had for this price.

There are other intriguing names, but no one with better durability. Hopefully they do sign a Harvey or someone that is cheaper too, but Lyle is probably the most affordable option that comes with durability and the ability to eat innings

I don't like this deal, but if he can take some pressure off the young guys for a year, it could help. Heck, if he can keep an era close to 4.00, we might be able to do a Cashner type deal. 

 

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Sports Guy
Sports Guy

So, he doesn’t miss bats, he doesn’t get Ks, HR rate is high, his FIP and xFIP were in line with his ERA and he was overpaid.  His walk rate is good though. He isn’t good.     Now, all of

interloper
interloper
Tony-OH
Tony-OH

First concern: He allowed 38 home runs last year and if he were pitching in Camden Yards it would have been 45. Expect a lot of souvenirs.   Second concern: He'll pitch at 31 years old and was no

jamalshw All-Star

jamalshw

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I don't have a problem with signing Lyles, but it's definitely an overpay and I'm not sure the upgrade over a Harvey-like minor league free agent justifies the price tag. It'll be interesting to see if they look to add another arm or if they'll go into the season with Means, Lyles, and whoever of Lowther, Baumann, Bradish, Zimmermann, Wells, Akin, Kremer, etc. wins the job in the spring. 

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

From what I saw on twitter, someone posted a graphic that he gives up a lot of flyballs/line drives.  Should play well in OPACY.

Not sure that's true. His career percentages line up pretty nicely with league averages, with him being under in FB% and a bit over in LD%. Earlier in his career he was actually a GB pitcher.

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Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

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2 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Not sure that's true. His career percentages line up pretty nicely with league averages, with him being under in FB% and a bit over in LD%. Earlier in his career he was actually a GB pitcher.

I'll try to find it, I should have saved it but I was on the pooper.

But as SG pointed out, he gave up 38 dingers last year.  

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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4 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Not sure that's true. His career percentages line up pretty nicely with league averages, with him being under in FB% and a bit over in LD%. Earlier in his career he was actually a GB pitcher.

With how Elias prefers the 4 seam fastball I'm not betting that his ground ball rate increases.

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

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6 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think there is potential here.

Lyles is a big strong guy, 6'5", 230lbs, which gives him the frame to pitch a lot of innings.   Baseball Savant shows he has 6 pitches - 4 seam fastball (93), Slider (83.3),  Curve (80.3), Sinker (91.6) and a Change at (86.4), Cutter (86.3).  Over the last 3 years different pitches have been effective for him in different years.  In different years the 4 seamer, slider, curve, and change have been effective.

He was effective as a starter with the Brewers in 2019 but has not done as well with the Pirates and Rangers in 2020 and 2021.  Maybe better coaching  and analytics will help him.    

Chris Holt has never coached Lyles.  Lyles was a 1st round pick of the Astros in 2008 out of high school.  Holt began coaching with the Astros in 2014.  Lyles was traded to the Rockies in Dec. 2013.  Elias and Lyles were both with the Astros in 2012 and 2013.

It will be interesting to see what Holt can do with Lyles in ST.  

 

 

I’m far from being able to evaluate the info on baseball savant but it looks like he has above average spin and movement on his fastball and curveball. 
 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jordan-lyles-543475?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

It looks like he threw 5-6 pitches last year with his slider being his preferred breaking ball and then only throwing his fastball 39% of the time.  
 

Maybe they get him on the strictly FB/CB train?

It’s a 7mm dollar deal for next year, but a 6.5mm if we trade him.  There’s built in “positives” into the contract if he does pitch well.  We could either trade him at the deadline or pick up the 11mm option for 2023.  
 

7mm seems expensive for him, but that’s the market, and that is what it’s going to take to pitch in OPACY and the AL East.  

 

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m far from being able to evaluate the info on baseball savant but it looks like he has above average spin and movement on his fastball and curveball. 

So I'm about to doze off last night and see the Rosenthal tweet. Come here and post the thread. Look at BBRef, see the age, ERA, etc. Go to bed and expect to see this exact post above.

There had to be a rational for this signing because it wasn't apparent from his standard performance statistics. 

This is an underwhelming signing, for the money, to say the least. Hopefully he proves me/us wrong.

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emmett16 Hangout Grand Counsel

emmett16

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47 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'll try to find it, I should have saved it but I was on the pooper.

But as SG pointed out, he gave up 38 dingers last year.  

Maybe MLB used the 'super ball' instead of the 'regular ball' for the terrible teams to drive some HR action to meaningless games.  

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interloper Hangout Grand Counsel

interloper

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15 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

I don't see how giving this guy innings is preferable to giving more starts to Akin, Lowther, Kremer, Wells, Zimmerman, Bradish, Baumann. I was 100% in favor of adding another starter, but we could find similar options off the waiver wire. The money makes it all the more head-scratching. 

All of those guys will pitch in the rotation this year. Well, Kremer will have to earn it back in AAA probably. But right now, the rotation looks something like:

Means
Lyles
Zimmermann
Lowther
Bradish

I like Akin, T. Wells, and Baumann in the bullpen. Alex Wells and Kremer in AAA. 

G-Rod later in the year. 

There will be injuries. They all break. 

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