ProspectsLive Top 30

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I guess the question is, if you like a guy so much that you’re willing to pay him $1.75 mm, why do you wait until the 5th round and risk somebody else taking him?

You might think he is worth $1.75M and a low pick but not $1.75M and a high pick. 

[jabba72]

When you draft Hudson Haskin in the 2nd round and give him $1.9M before Mayo, its safe to say you got lucky Mayo was available in round 4.

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I guess the question is, if you like a guy so much that you’re willing to pay him $1.75 mm, why do you wait until the 5th round and risk somebody else taking him?

ecause they made a calculated decision that he would still be available in the 4th. They obviously had a good feel for teams that may be on him and what money that had left. It's clear to me that Elias and his team have a really good feel for what the players' numbers are because they've signed every guy they've drafted.

So at the end of the day, if you think the teams that are on him don't have his money, then why not let him slip until the 4th in a 5 round draft. The 2020 draft was really weird because of COVID and 5 rounds. I think we're going to see more Mayo types then we see in other years.

After Mayo was selected by the Orioles, only Texas with High school pitcher Dylan MacLean in the 4th round went for more than 1 million ($1.2) so teams were tapped out by the 4th.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, jabba72 said:

When you draft Hudson Haskin in the 2nd round and give him $1.9M before Mayo, its safe to say you got lucky Mayo was available in round 4.

Again, it' not all luck. The Orioles clearly knew what Mayo's number was and what teams were on him and the money they had left or were going to need to sign the guys they already drafted. That's good scouting work.

Now, I do believe they got lucky in the sense that most teams weren't able to see most of these high school players and that may have let Mayo drop. I can guarantee you if the teams were able to redraft Mayo would be a 1st rounder.

Now, I'm not saying Elias and his guys are perfect afterall, they gave Haskins $1.9 million and I'll be the first to say I don't think he's worth that at all now that I've seen him professionally. 

 

[Sports Guy]

38 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Again, it' not all luck. The Orioles clearly knew what Mayo's number was and what teams were on him and the money they had left or were going to need to sign the guys they already drafted. That's good scouting work.

Now, I do believe they got lucky in the sense that most teams weren't able to see most of these high school players and that may have let Mayo drop. I can guarantee you if the teams were able to redraft Mayo would be a 1st rounder.

Now, I'm not saying Elias and his guys are perfect afterall, they gave Haskins $1.9 million and I'll be the first to say I don't think he's worth that at all now that I've seen him professionally. 

 

They are absolutely getting lucky with the idea that they got him in the 5th round, which was my point.

As I said, zero chance they wait until the 5th round to take him if they thought he would be this good.  That would have been too risky.

Obviously the scouted him well and knew his number, etc…that’s not the luck part. 

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Because they made a calculated decision that he would still be available in the 5th. They obviously had a good feel for teams that may be on him and what money that had left. It's clear to me that Elias and his team have a really good feel for what the players' numbers are because they've signed every guy they've drafted.

So at the end of the day, if you think the teams that are on him don't have his money, then why not let him slip until the 5th in a 5 round draft. The 2020 draft was really weird because of COVID and 5 rounds. I think we're going to see more Mayo types then we see in other years.

I guess it makes sense if you’re pretty sure no other team has $1.75 mm available to spend on him.   But it seems pretty risky.   Obviously lots of teams do similar things.  

[Sports Guy]

48 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Because they made a calculated decision that he would still be available in the 5th. They obviously had a good feel for teams that may be on him and what money that had left. It's clear to me that Elias and his team have a really good feel for what the players' numbers are because they've signed every guy they've drafted.

So at the end of the day, if you think the teams that are on him don't have his money, then why not let him slip until the 5th in a 5 round draft. The 2020 draft was really weird because of COVID and 5 rounds. I think we're going to see more Mayo types then we see in other years.

They also thought Blitsko would be there with their second pick and he wasn’t.  Those calculated decisions can still be wrong.

[Tony-OH]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They also thought Blitsko would be there with their second pick and he wasn’t.  Those calculated decisions can still be wrong.

I also heard that Baumler was not their main pitching overslot in the 5th. I don't know who it was, but if had to hazard a guess, it was Dylan  MacLean who went in the 4th round to TX for $1.2 million.

[BohKnowsBmore]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Honestly, Mayo may be one of those COVID related good news stories for the Orioles. Mayo was hurt by basically missing his senior year but for a few games. With questions about his defense at 3B and his desire for at least second round money, most teams were thinking he was too big a risk.

Who knows where he would have gone in the draft if he had a huge senior year? With the talent I've seen, it's clear first round talent so the question was, did the Orioles make out because of his missed senior year?

Most likely yes. So yes, there's a little luck in the situation that allowed Mayo to be available in the 5th round, but it was Elias' use of player pool money that allowed him to be targeted and signed. That's good work by a scouting staff that could not physically see or talk to a player after early March.

So there's some luck, but also this would be a huge scouting win if Mayo can fulfill his potential.

It's a lot like VC investing.

Ultimately, you know a bunch of bets aren't going to work out, but you do the research, make what you think are smart bets across portfolio, etc. Goal is to identify the home run company that "Returns the fund" on its own. In isolation, that investment will look really lucky (e.g., product caught on with the market while competitors didn't, early-20's founders ended up being great leaders, etc.) but you were positioned to catch that great upside because you did the legwork to identify good bets vs. just giving a check to the first 10 people with an idea that you speak to.

[BohKnowsBmore]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I guess the question is, if you like a guy so much that you’re willing to pay him $1.75 mm, why do you wait until the 5th round and risk somebody else taking him?

 

6 hours ago, jabba72 said:

Obviously they didnt know Mayo had this kind of upside at the time, neither did anyone else though. He flew completely under the radar in that draft. 

Was it Mayo that a lot of folks thought was potentially a lock to go to college? Or was that Baumler?

[RZNJ]

22 hours ago, Frobby said:

I guess the question is, if you like a guy so much that you’re willing to pay him $1.75 mm, why do you wait until the 5th round and risk somebody else taking him?

Chances are that Mayo/Baumler may not have even been plan A as the overslot.  Wasn't there talk of Nick Bitschko as the overslot as their second pick?  Or have I got the wrong year?

 

To me, the bottom line is that Mayo was high up on their board and they gave him 2nd round money.  They certainly deserve credit for making a good pick.  Is there one human in the world who knows exactly how any of these players turn out?  You make educated guesses.  The guys who make the most good guesses have a better chance of getting lucky.

[Number5]

On 2/8/2022 at 10:31 PM, BohKnowsBmore said:

 

Was it Mayo that a lot of folks thought was potentially a lock to go to college? Or was that Baumler?

Both, IIRC.

[Sports Guy]

18 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Chances are that Mayo/Baumler may not have even been plan A as the overslot.  Wasn't there talk of Nick Bitschko as the overslot as their second pick?  Or have I got the wrong year?

 

To me, the bottom line is that Mayo was high up on their board and they gave him 2nd round money.  They certainly deserve credit for making a good pick.  Is there one human in the world who knows exactly how any of these players turn out?  You make educated guesses.  The guys who make the most good guesses have a better chance of getting lucky.

Of course they deserve credit for it.  No one suggested otherwise.  

[LookinUp]

On 2/8/2022 at 3:45 PM, jabba72 said:

Obviously they didnt know Mayo had this kind of upside at the time, neither did anyone else though. He flew completely under the radar in that draft. 

 

On 2/8/2022 at 7:59 PM, Frobby said:

I guess it makes sense if you’re pretty sure no other team has $1.75 mm available to spend on him.   But it seems pretty risky.   Obviously lots of teams do similar things.  

My recollection is people were shocked he was drafted at all because they were sure he was going to college. Basically, teams knew there was upside, knew there was a gap in performance due to Covid and knew there was a big number. The O's knew enough that they could still get him and essentially gambled on upside despite there not being a senior year to evaluate.