Correa (Update, signs with Twins)

[oriole]

27 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

If the O's sign a short stop with:

Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Mayo, Norby, Prieto and Vavra in the organization, you can bet that 2-4 from that list would be moved in a trade for pitching.

All of those guys could play 2nd or 3rd, but only 2 can on a daily basis.

I think hoping that even 2 out of that list will eventually be worthy of every day play is optimistic. If I had to guess, one will have a good MLB career, one might be a decent utility player for a few years, and the rest will struggle to find any consistency at the MLB level. 
 

Signing someone like Correa isn’t just a signal to the organization that it’s time to show up and win but it also reduces the absolute need for every infield prospect in the top 10 to make it. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Hays would also be a possibility. 

Hays isn’t getting you anything in trade.

[LookinUp]

And a year from now, 1-3 guys we already have in the system might have become prominent international bats that fit into this equation too. 

This is Elias's model. 

[oriole]

52 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

It's like the Padres signing Machado just as their window was opening.  It makes sense, but is not something I expect the risk averse (risk terrified) Orioles to do. 

Nope, this is fun to think about but I think (or hope) that we all know it doesn’t have a chance of actually happening. A guy can dream though 

[Sports Guy]

So, everyone sharing their concerns with Correa are right.  There are red flags to be worried about.

That being said, go look at the next several FA lists.  Tell me who you want?  Tell me who makes sense?

And if your answer is, no one..that’s fine too.  But there is essentially a zero percent chance that the next contending Os team will be comprised of only home grown talent.  We absolutely must acquire outside the organization talent.  
 

Not sure about you guys but I would rather sign one Correa(and I hate the idea of a 10/350 deal btw) than 3 Ubaldo type deals.

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, oriole said:

I think hoping that even 2 out of that list will eventually be worthy of every day play is optimistic. If I had to guess, one will have a good MLB career, one might be a decent utility player for a few years, and the rest will struggle to find any consistency at the MLB level. 
 

Signing someone like Correa isn’t just a signal to the organization that it’s time to show up and win but it also reduces the absolute need for every infield prospect in the top 10 to make it. 

I listed 7 guys, in a scenario where we just signed a SS and only need 2 to complete the infield, several of which seem high probability to have some value just based on the fact they're already in AA.

But point is taken...and the O's are in a better position to understand who will and won't succeed either way. Another reason to trade when their value is high. 

[Yardball85]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So, everyone sharing their concerns with Correa are right.  There are red flags to be worried about.

That being said, go look at the next several FA lists.  Tell me who you want?  Tell me who makes sense?

And if your answer is, no one..that’s fine too.  But there is essentially a zero percent chance that the next contending Os team will be comprised of only home grown talent.  We absolutely must acquire outside the organization talent.  
 

Not sure about you guys but I would rather sign one Correa(and I hate the idea of a 10/350 deal btw) than 3 Ubaldo type deals.

I think some people genuinely expect the next contending team, 1-9, to be all homegrown players.  Nice idea in theory, but no realistic. 

[Yardball85]

4 minutes ago, oriole said:

Nope, this is fun to think about but I think (or hope) that we all know it doesn’t have a chance of actually happening. A guy can dream though 

With that said, the Lyles signing (which I did not like) was surprising and showed, perhaps, a willingness to spend.  It was bizarre, and I think you  could have gotten someone for much cheaper, but that was the largest FA contract this team has given out since... Gallardo?

[Sports Guy]

 

[Sports Guy]

If that’s true, they offered him 10/320.

[Matt Bennett]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hays isn’t getting you anything in trade.

I disagree with this. Mid 20’s outfielder with 4 years of control and at the league minimum next season. Has power, is athletic in the OF, and has a killer arm. Last year he started to put everything together. Relatively high draft pick and exploded his way up to impressive prospect rankings. 

Hays was our 2nd most impressive position player. If he’s not getting you anything in a trade, Mullins is the only trade bait. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Matt Bennett said:

I disagree with this. Mid 20’s outfielder with 4 years of control and at the league minimum next season. Has power, is athletic in the OF, and has a killer arm. Last year he started to put everything together. Relatively high draft pick and exploded his way up to impressive prospect rankings. 

Hays was our 2nd most impressive position player. If he’s not getting you anything in a trade, Mullins is the only trade bait. 

Hays has one full season under his belt and years of injury plagued years. He has a low OBP and good but not great power.

Another year of being healthy and being a 2-3 WAR player and he has value.  Right now, he isn’t bringing you anything back that you don’t already have in abundance.

[Jammer7]

The injury risk is certainly an issue. My concern is what will the physical decline be like at SS. Does he move to 3B in 2-3 years? I am all about acquiring an elite player, and paying him appropriately. But I want elite return for at least 5-6 years out of the 10. Is he an elite 3B offensively, maybe he is.

At some point, we need this type of acquisition. And the next playoff team will likely not be all homegrown. I just would not plan on him being at SS more than a few years. And I am sure he will have some kind of “no-trade” clause in his contract. 

[interloper]

Absolutely wild. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

The injury risk is certainly an issue. My concern is what will the physical decline be like at SS. Does he move to 3B in 2-3 years? I am all about acquiring an elite player, and paying him appropriately. But I want elite return for at least 5-6 years out of the 10. Is he an elite 3B offensively, maybe he is.

At some point, we need this type of acquisition. And the next playoff team will likely not be all homegrown. I just would not plan on him being at SS more than a few years. And I am sure he will have some kind of “no-trade” clause in his contract. 

I think it’s fair to believe you get high level defense for 2 more years and good to very good defense for 2 years after that.  Beyond those 4 years I think he’s unlikely to stay at SS.