What is Elias' plan to contend and what should it be?

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

You realize that’s the point, right?  

 

Certainly.  So what good is crying about it doing?

IMO, Elias appears to be at a crossroads where he has to step up and show he can swing a trade or sign a big time free agent.  And he's shown neither for years now.

So either he can't do one or the other (or both) or he's just biding his time.  I think he is what he is...a really smart guy who can set up a farm system and bring in analytics but probably falls short in the wheeling and dealing category.  Remains to be seen if he's got enough to get this team where it needs to be while only using his strengths but it's probably not enough. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

 

Certainly.  So what good is crying about it doing?

IMO, Elias appears to be at a crossroads where he has to step up and show he can swing a trade or sign a big time free agent.  And he's shown neither for years now.

So either he can't do one or the other (or both) or he's just biding his time.  I think he is what he is...a really smart guy who can set up a farm system and bring in analytics but probably falls short in the wheeling and dealing category.  Remains to be seen if he's got enough to get this team where it needs to be while only using his strengths but it's probably not enough. 

What good is any discussion we have on here? 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He can make trades though. 

Can he make trades that add to payroll?

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Can he make trades that add to payroll?

I don’t know.  I haven’t asked him.

[John Gibson]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

We Are going to be lucky to have 6-10 legit contributors from this current crop on the next legit contending team.  That means there are a lot of players that need to come from outside the organization to make up the team.

When do you propose we get those players?  Do we just sit around and wait to see which prospects pan out?  What happens when, inevitably, most of them sh!t the bed?  How much trade value do you think those guys will have then?

The idea that we just keep sitting around and hoping for the best is absolutely absurd.  It’s almost as if people just started watching baseball and believe that prospects have some 80+% success rate.  

An argument can be made that it should start now but the history that Elias was part of shows that it doesn't have to be at the point where the Orioles are at.  The (alot) of players outside of the organization that made up the Astros championship team did not come until after the talent pipeline started producing at the MLB level and they were an 80 win team.  They saw what they had then and started augmenting.  None of those outside the org guys were added when they where the Orioles are today.

I'm with you in that I would love to see some improvements made now - it would make a more entertaining product and if they are the right moves doesn't necessarily have to lower the odds of long term success.  But that would deviate from the plan I think they are following which we know with certainty has the possibility of working as it already has in the past.

Edited March 16, 2022 by John Gibson

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, John Gibson said:

An argument can be made that it should start now but the history that Elias was part of shows that it doesn't have to be at the point where the Orioles are at.  The (alot) of players outside of the organization that made up the Astros championship team did not come until after the talent pipeline started producing at the MLB level and they were an 80 win team.  They saw what they had then and started augmenting.  None of those outside the org guys were added when they where the Orioles are today.

I'm with you in that I would love to see some improvements made now - it would make a more entertaining product and if they are the right moves doesn't necessarily have to lower the odds of long term success.  But that would deviate from the plan I think they are following which we know with certainty has the possibility of working as it already has in the past.

Any plan that says you must wait for a lot of good things to happen is a poor plan.  I think you are reading way too much into the houston plan and things like that.

 

[maybenxtyr]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Can he make trades that add to payroll?

Judging by how they are operating right now? We would have to assume no, right?

 

I agree with some people that there's no reason to tank for 4-5 years in order to compete. In something as secret as baseball money we can only make assumptions based on the body of work.

[oriole]

14 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

Certainly.  So what good is crying about it doing?

IMO, Elias appears to be at a crossroads where he has to step up and show he can swing a trade or sign a big time free agent.  And he's shown neither for years now.

So either he can't do one or the other (or both) or he's just biding his time.  I think he is what he is...a really smart guy who can set up a farm system and bring in analytics but probably falls short in the wheeling and dealing category.  Remains to be seen if he's got enough to get this team where it needs to be while only using his strengths but it's probably not enough. 

To be fair, we’ve got no idea what type of deals he is a capable of because he’s barely done anything in that regard. It’s quite possible that the lack of trades of guys like Mancini, Santander, and Fry is linked to bad offers from other teams. Those players aren’t nearly as good or coveted as we want to believe here in Baltimore. His signing of Lyles is pretty suspect considering the money involved but I have feeling he was trying to pull a move that would spend a little money just to say he did while also assuring the team won’t win games. Other than that, there’s nothing substantial to judge him on.

[LookinUp]

Here are the options for how to build as I see them:

Dodgers Model: Build a great farm system but don't be reliant on it. Add huge talent from the outside and let the farm fill the gaps/make trades.

Astros Model: Build a great farm system, make big trades for big guys, see progress, add a couple of FA and win. Then resign your own.

Rays Model: Build a great farm system, use it to build a good team. Trade guys at peak value. Resign very few. Acquire very few big FAs.

If we're implementing more of the Rays model than any others, the window starts in something like 2025 where our guys are not just here, but also mature major leaguers.

If we could do something closer to the Astros or even Dodgers model, we'd spend more sooner but have an actual chance to compete in 2023 and 2024. 

It seems to me like this is not an Astros plan, it's a Rays plan, and thus a 2025+ plan.

[forphase1]

The plan is fairly clear, even is some don't like the plan.  

1) Build a farm system that can make us a competitive team year after year, where when someone gets hurt, traded or leaves via free agency we have an adequate replacement waiting in the minors.  This calls for depth, not just a few highly rated players.  The system is getting there, but still doesn't yet have the depth to be at this point yet.  But it's a HUGE improvement over where we were a handful of years ago.

2) Supplement the minors with free agents and trades when and where appropriate.  Clearly this is the unknown.  When should the long term signing of free agents begin?  Some say it should have already started, some say this year, some in the immediate future.  I personally don't see the logic is signing high cost free agents until the team is closer to being competitive.  And I feel this is the last year where we should punt on the high priced free agents as the young talent getting to the majors now should start paying dividends in the win/loss record and quality of play.  As to trades, that's risky still.  Other than MAYBE outfield, I don't see that we have enough depth yet to start trading away the assets in the minors.  And even in the outfield there are enough question marks (was Cedric a fluke last year, Hays can't stay healthy, young guys need more time to see what we've got, etc) to make me hesitate to move much.  That's certainly the goal and target I think, but just aren't quite at that point.

 

Listen, we are ALL frustrated.  We are no where nearly as far along on the rebuild as most of us were expecting or hoping at this time.  Covid, injuries, heart issues, poor development, lack of high minor talent, AR now shut down, etc etc have all contributed to not being where we hoped we'd be at this time.  But I do finally see light at the end of the tunnel, and I don't want to see that change due to being impatient and wanting things to happen now.  

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

The plan is fairly clear, even is some don't like the plan.  

1) Build a farm system that can make us a competitive team year after year, where when someone gets hurt, traded or leaves via free agency we have an adequate replacement waiting in the minors.  This calls for depth, not just a few highly rated players.  The system is getting there, but still doesn't yet have the depth to be at this point yet.  But it's a HUGE improvement over where we were a handful of years ago.

2) Supplement the minors with free agents and trades when and where appropriate.  Clearly this is the unknown.  When should the long term signing of free agents begin?  Some say it should have already started, some say this year, some in the immediate future.  I personally don't see the logic is signing high cost free agents until the team is closer to being competitive.  And I feel this is the last year where we should punt on the high priced free agents as the young talent getting to the majors now should start paying dividends in the win/loss record and quality of play.  As to trades, that's risky still.  Other than MAYBE outfield, I don't see that we have enough depth yet to start trading away the assets in the minors.  And even in the outfield there are enough question marks (was Cedric a fluke last year, Hays can't stay healthy, young guys need more time to see what we've got, etc) to make me hesitate to move much.  That's certainly the goal and target I think, but just aren't quite at that point.

 

Listen, we are ALL frustrated.  We are no where nearly as far along on the rebuild as most of us were expecting or hoping at this time.  Covid, injuries, heart issues, poor development, lack of high minor talent, AR now shut down, etc etc have all contributed to not being where we hoped we'd be at this time.  But I do finally see light at the end of the tunnel, and I don't want to see that change due to being impatient and wanting things to happen now.  

And all of this could be accomplished and have a better team on the field.

Nothing being done by the team is unique to winning games long term.

[LookinUp]

19 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

2) Supplement the minors...

My point in this thread isn't to question what's known, it's to question the unknown part, which is at what pace is Elias going to do this stuff?

There seems to be a walk before you jog. Jog before you run. Then, maybe, run approach. That will take quite a while.

 

 

[Camden_yardbird]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

Elias can’t sign players if ownership isn’t committed to doing so. Plus he isn’t going to throw ownership under the bus. Clearly he wanted to tear it down but we have no idea what he would really like to do in FA. 
 

Reminds me a little of people being upset at Duquette over the lack of International spending. 

I mean we can play this game all day right?  What does ownership let Elias do?  If we are going to start getting into that there is ZERO value to this thread because Elias isn't doesn't really factor in, your actor in that scenario is ownership and we should be asking what the ORIOLES should do to be competitive.  Of course you are also placing an arbitrary parameter on the question which you have no knowledge of, namely the intention of the owners.

If however we are having an honest and productive discourse about possible routes to contention we have to assume Elias has the ability to spend money.

If we want to examine the parameters of the discussion under your paradigm, specifically "How should Elias make the Orioles a competitor in a world where the owners won't let him spend money now but will in the future?" I would say the discussion is moot because the answer is Elias should draft prospects (which costs nothing) and spend money in the future to fill holes - for which our conversation would be almost completely uninformed as we don't know whether the holes in the roster will be. The answer is dictated by the question.

That won't result in a competitive Orioles team, not in any meaningful way given the current crop of prospects.  We will just be the Orlando Magic of the MLB, everyone else's farm system, perpetually locked in a system of mediocrity or worse, perhaps with some up years with a smart move or two but destined for this same process of tear down as soon as one bad contract is signed or one key player gets injured.

Wait, what that I see?  Ruschman shut down with elbow discomfort, right on cue.

[John Gibson]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Any plan that says you must wait for a lot of good things to happen is a poor plan.  I think you are reading way too much into the houston plan and things like that.

 

I think that's a bit of mischaracterization in that doing nothing isn't the plan.  Just that signing veterans and making long term commitments is premature. I recently listened to a podcast with Ben Reiter which also included Jeff Ludhow about the cheating scandal.  It started talking about the approach to rebuilding the franchise.  There is almost no deviation between their explanation of that approach and what the Orioles have been doing up to this point in Elias' tenure. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, John Gibson said:

I think that's a bit of mischaracterization in that doing nothing isn't the plan.  Just that signing veterans and making long term commitments is premature. I recently listened to a podcast with Ben Reiter which also included Jeff Ludhow about the cheating scandal.  It started talking about the approach to rebuilding the franchise.  There is almost no deviation between their explanation of that approach and what the Orioles have been doing up to this point in Elias' tenure. 

It’s not premature to make the right long term commitments.  That’s a fallacy.