Potential 1st over pick info: Druw Jones - HS

[RZNJ]

Lee is in many mocks between one and 3.  If you can convince Jones or Lee that you are good with either one of them, you could probably get them signed somewhere in the middle of #1 slot and and #2 slot although I'm sure Jones is more confident he's going 1 or 2.  Lee could always slide a little bit as Green, Porada, and Holliday could potentially go before him.  Less likely that happens with Jones from the sounds of it.   There seems to be more consensus for Jones but it doesn't feel like Harper/Strasburg.

[btdart20]

43 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you pay him near slot and more than Jones gets at #2 I don't see how anyone could rightfully view it as an under slot pick.

That's fair.  Final contract value should be the defining measurable. 

Perceptions are more slippery than measurables though.  Especially when I am/we are "obviously" better GMs than anyone else in charge!

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

8 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Lee is in many mocks between one and 3.  If you can convince Jones or Lee that you are good with either one of them, you could probably get them signed somewhere in the middle of #1 slot and and #2 slot although I'm sure Jones is more confident he's going 1 or 2.  Lee could always slide a little bit as Green, Porada, and Holliday could potentially go before him.  Less likely that happens with Jones from the sounds of it.   There seems to be more consensus for Jones but it doesn't feel like Harper/Strasburg.

Lee is in those mocks 1-3 bc they know Elias goes under slot. 

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Lee is in those mocks 1-3 bc they know Elias goes under slot. 

Perhaps some do try to guess what the Orioles will do but that's not what they did in the Baseball America 3.0 draft.  You don't feel that Lee is a legitimate top 3 guy?

Why would he be #3 in some mocks if it's because of the Orioles going underslot.  That wouldn't make any sense. 

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Lee is in those mocks 1-3 bc they know Elias goes under slot. 

Yep.  That’s the thing.  The problem is, they have zero idea what Elias will do. They are assuming it based on the recent past.  I’m not saying there isn’t reason to believe it but we have no idea if Elias views Jones the way everyone else is and says, we need to draft this kid.

We have so much money to spend, so spending big on that first pick isn’t going to hurt you.  You can still do overslots, etc…

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep.  That’s the thing.  The problem is, they have zero idea what Elias will do. They are assuming it based on the recent past.  I’m not saying there isn’t reason to believe it but we have no idea if Elias views Jones the way everyone else is and says, we need to draft this kid.

We have so much money to spend, so spending big on that first pick isn’t going to hurt you.  You can still do overslots, etc…

We have 2 comp balance picks, no?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

We have 2 comp balance picks, no?

Yes.  One in the first, one in the second.  

[Jammer7]

With two months to go, a lot can happen. I firmly believe that Druw Jones is special, and a clearly defined 1-1 type of pick. And after some reflection, I realize that Elias will pick who he believes has the best chance to achieve the most value for the Orioles. It doesn’t matter what I think, or any of the experts on Orioles Twitter. 

I have seen a lot of video, and I see no holes in Jones’ game. I have no idea about his makeup, but I have been told he is an elite driven competitor. 

[Just Regular]

This is going to be a long wait to July as I imagine Jones will be done playing high school ball soon, and then there's just the dance of will he be open to doing workouts.   At least we've had the College World Series other years.

To the extent Elias runs a tight ship about Jordan Lyles signings, Kyle Bradish debuts, day-to-day Kyle Stowers and basically everything, I see zero reason to expect any "rumors" reported by the zillion mock drafts to have any signal behind them whatsoever.

Its his most important negotiation of the summer, unless Jorge Lopez gets to Aroldis for Gleyber Torres level type performances.

[bobmc]

5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

This is going to be a long wait to July as I imagine Jones will be done playing high school ball soon, and then there's just the dance of will he be open to doing workouts.   At least we've had the College World Series other years.

To the extent Elias runs a tight ship about Jordan Lyles signings, Kyle Bradish debuts, day-to-day Kyle Stowers and basically everything, I see zero reason to expect any "rumors" reported by the zillion mock drafts to have any signal behind them whatsoever.

Its his most important negotiation of the summer, unless Jorge Lopez gets to Aroldis for Gleyber Torres level type performances.

Jorge for Arraez would be nice to rejoin Tyler and his amigo - or perhaps Lin Miranda's nephew?  I'm verklempt!  *

* caffeine spinning around my brain, sorry

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

12 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

With two months to go, a lot can happen. I firmly believe that Druw Jones is special, and a clearly defined 1-1 type of pick. And after some reflection, I realize that Elias will pick who he believes has the best chance to achieve the most value for the Orioles. It doesn’t matter what I think, or any of the experts on Orioles Twitter. 

I have seen a lot of video, and I see no holes in Jones’ game. I have no idea about his makeup, but I have been told he is an elite driven competitor. 

He has a strong potential to be a superstar. I hope Elias doesn’t take the wrong pick for the third year in a row but sadly I think he will and most will defend him. Maddening. 

[Sports Guy]

I’m going to go back to the biggest point, imo, in this discussion.  I think we can all agree that, normally speaking, the college player is the safer bet.  The history of the draft shows this to be true.

OTOH, the history of the draft also says that most of the elite, HOF level talent come from HS, especially at the top of the draft.
 

I am looking at this pick as a swing for the fences pick.  If you told me in 5 years that Jones busted and Lee became a solid regular, I would still be glad we took the shot on Jones because that’s a talent you don’t pass on imo.  We have a lot of solid regular type prospects.  We need more elite, great talents.

Its not that Brooks Lee is a bad player. Of course he isn’t.  Of course he has talent and upside, etc…but not like Jones and that’s what we need to be going after.

[OriolesMagic83]

I'm not a fan of the overslot category when the O's have a pick at the top of the 1st round.  You don't give up a chance at a franchise player to pick a player who might overperform who's available in the 3rd or 5th round.  I know nothing in the draft is a sure thing, but it's the best chance at getting an elite player in the organization.

[RZNJ]

I understand the "swing for the fences" approach to the draft and when it comes with certainly, I say go for it.   Jones seems to come with a fair amount of confidence that he won't be a bust.   I am all for taking Jones at 1:1.

At the same time, Brooks Lee is actually rated as the #2 guy at this time by Baseball America, and being rated #2 has nothing to do with wondering if the Orioles will do something one way or the other with the first pick.

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Brooks Lee

Cal PolySS

Notes:

HT: 6-2 | Wt: 205 | B-T: B-R
Commit/Drafted: Giants '19 (35)
Age At Draft: 21.4
The son of Cal Poly head coach Larry Lee, Brooks has been a highly-regarded hitter since his prep days at San Luis Obispo High in California, where he rated as the No. 38 player in the 2019 draft class. Scouts then saw Lee as one of the best pure hitters in the region, and he’s only further established his reputation as a standout switch-hitter over his collegiate career. After missing the 2020 season due to injury and Covid, Lee has only played 57 games with Cal Poly, but he’s posted a .344/.385/.629 line with 10 home runs and 28 doubles, and last summer he blitzed through the Cape Cod League to the tune of a .405/.432/.667 line over 21 games. He also ranked as the No. 1 prospect on USA Baseball’s collegiate national team. He’s an easy plus hitter with a repeatable swing from both sides of the plate, he rarely swings and misses (just 17% of the time last spring, per Synergy) and has more than held his own against quality velocity and secondaries. While he doesn’t profile as a slugger, it’s easy to see some of those doubles turning into home runs in the future and he should be able to tap into all of the raw power he has in the tank considering his bat-to-ball skills. Scouts are skeptical that Lee will stick at shortstop long term. He has reliable hands, adjusts on bad hops and has a solid, accurate arm but evaluators note his range is quite limited compared to what you want in a big league shortstop. Perhaps an increasingly shift-heavy MLB game will make his range less of an issue, but most see him settling in best at either third or second base in the long run.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

7 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm not a fan of the overslot category when the O's have a pick at the top of the 1st round.  You don't give up a chance at a franchise player to pick a player who might overperform who's available in the 3rd or 5th round.  I know nothing in the draft is a sure thing, but it's the best chance at getting an elite player in the organization.