2022 Ongoing Lineup Thread

[Three Run Homer]

16 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

That wouldn't be a shabby lineup if Henderson replaced Odor for the rest of the season. 

Edit: can we will that to happen tomorrow?

I seem to remember that August 23 (day after tomorrow) is the magical day when you can call up Henderson and still preserve his rookie status for next year.  If we don't get him then we won't get him at all this season, it seems.  

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

.501 OPS with RISP in August; .593 over the whole season.

Mountcastle is obviously a talented hitter and I welcome his bat further down the lineup. But I don't think he has enough of a developed approach to rely on as a clean-up hitter in important games.

Right because that stat is indicative of anything.

Hint, it isn't.

You want a pointless stat?  He led the team in RBI last year with the same approach. (799 OPS RISP)

[UMDTerrapins]

4 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I seem to remember that August 23 (day after tomorrow) is the magical day when you can call up Henderson and still preserve his rookie status for next year.  If we don't get him then we won't get him at all this season, it seems.  

Good point. Travel day tomorrow, roster move Tuesday. Makes his debut at home. 

Edited August 21, 2022 by UMDTerrapins

[Alasdaire]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Right because that stat is indicative of anything.

Hint, it isn't.

You want a pointless stat?  He led the team in RBI last year with the same approach. (799 OPS RISP)

Sure, sabermetricians would tell you that RISP is not cool anymore, but it's a stat that players and managers are cognizant of.

I'm not talking about whether he's a valuable hitter generally. The question is whether he should be hitting fourth. I think it's fair to not want a streaky hitter who swings out of his shoes as the guy in the position traditionally tasked with driving in the guys who work their way on base.

His RISP numbers were good last year in his first full season. They're bad this year. Does that show the stat is meaningless, or that there's now a book on him that pitchers consult when they need the out?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

His RISP numbers were good last year in his first full season. They're bad this year. Does that show the stat is meaningless, or that there's now a book on him that pitchers consult when they need the out?

You don't think they knew what type of hitter he was last year?

I'm going with the stat has been shown to be of very limited value.

[Alasdaire]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't think they knew what type of hitter he was last year?

I'm going with the stat has been shown to be of very limited value.

The whole phenomenon of a sophomore slump can be attributed to the rest of the league having enough data on a player to target their weaknesses. So yeah, I would say that it's possible his tendencies are more clear now.

Again, I like Mountcastle, and the natural talent has always been there. But I don't trust him enough to bat him fourth. It's a bit of a moot point this season because he might still be the best option. But I look forward to the day when we can move him further down the lineup.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Alasdaire said:

The whole phenomenon of a sophomore slump can be attributed to the rest of the league having enough data on a player to target their weaknesses. So yeah, I would say that it's possible his tendencies are more clear now.

Again, I like Mountcastle, and the natural talent has always been there. But I don't trust him enough to bat him fourth. It's a bit of a moot point this season because he might still be the best option. But I look forward to the day when we can move him further down the lineup.

First off it's his third season.

Secondly they've had data on him since highschool.

This isn't the '40's.

You don't think the Yankees have data on Henderson?  You don't think the Mets had data on Vaughn Grissom?

Now if you want to say you don't think he's a long term answer I won't disagree with you.  I've myself have said he's probably not a player you want to pay arb 3 prices for.

 

[Alasdaire]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

First off it's his third season.

Secondly they've had data on him since highschool.

This isn't the '40's.

You don't think the Yankees have data on Henderson?  You don't think the Mets had data on Vaughn Grissom?

Now if you want to say you don't think he's a long term answer I won't disagree with you.  I've myself have said he's probably not a player you want to pay arb 3 prices for.

 

There's a difference between data scientists putting together a scouting profile including stuff from a guy's high school tape versus major league pitchers personally facing a guy and then knowing his tendencies from experience and sharing that first-hand to their teammates. More athletes than we would like to think don't really put in the time in the film room.

[Sports Guy]

44 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Mateo batting .309 /.350 /.574 since the All Star Break, but Hyde refuses to adjust his thinking. Reminds me how Showalter kept sticking Hyun Soo Kim at the lower end of the lineup despite him having the best batting eye and BY FAR the best OBP on the team. 

So Mateo is currently thriving batting at the end of the lineup and Hyde is dumb for not moving him up?  This is a guy who has been mediocre his whole pro career and is playing well and you want to bash Hyde for not changing his thinking?  
 

Interesting thought process.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

There's a difference between data scientists putting together a scouting profile including stuff from a guy's high school tape versus major league pitchers personally facing a guy and then knowing his tendencies from experience and sharing that first-hand to their teammates. More athletes than we would like to think don't really put in the time in the film room.

I think that number is dwindling rapidly.

I think every pitcher and catcher is given detailed reports before every series.

I think that data is many times more useful than 12 at bats spaced months apart the prior season.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So Mateo is currently thriving batting at the end of the lineup and Hyde is dumb for not moving him up?  This is a guy who has been mediocre his whole pro career and is playing well and you want to bash Hyde for not changing his thinking?  
 

Interesting thought process.

Do you think he's thriving because he's batting at the end of the lineup?

Interesting thought process.

[Alasdaire]

  

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think every pitcher and catcher is given detailed reports before every series.

I think that data is many times more useful than 12 at bats spaced months apart the prior season.

Undoubtedly true on both counts. Doesn't mean that players actually read the report or prioritize the data over their experience. See Kyle Murray having a clause in his contract that he had to perform "independent study." See Terrin Vavra carrying around a little notebook where he takes his own notes on pitchers after his at bats.

And this is just me speculating based on his demeanor and a few interviews here and there, but my suspicion with Mountcastle is that he in particular doesn't seem like the type of player to take advantage of the wealth of data and training at his disposal. He seems to rely mostly on his natural abilities, which wouldn't be someone who I would trust in high-leverage situations. But that's just my general impression and could be off base.

Edit: Kyler Murray, not Kyle.

Edited August 21, 2022 by Alasdaire

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think he's thriving because he's batting at the end of the lineup?

Interesting thought process.

I don’t know (no one does obviously, which is why it’s a poor question) but why broke what doesn’t need to be fixed?  
 

Some guys relax more when they aren’t higher in the lineup.  Some guys thrive more in other spots.  They shouldn’t but players have talked in the past how they approach at bats differently in different parts of the lineup.  
 

Mateo is giving the bottom of the order some depth.  I see no reason to change that.

Edited August 21, 2022 by Sports Guy

[LA2]

In August so far, Mateo is hitting .338 / .392 / .618 / 1.010, with 5 doubles, a triple, 4 homers, and 16 RBIs in 19 games. Those are MOO stats for a lineup that outside of Santander hasn't produced much in the middle.

[ShoelesJoe]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

So Mateo is currently thriving batting at the end of the lineup and Hyde is dumb for not moving him up?  This is a guy who has been mediocre his whole pro career and is playing well and you want to bash Hyde for not changing his thinking?  
 

Interesting thought process.

When the facts on the ground change good managers change their thinking accordingly. If your cleanup hitter who led the team in HRs a year ago sucks eggs this year then you move him out of that spot until he gets his head on straight. If your #9 punch ‘n judi SS with a career .600 OPS puts up a .900 OPS for a month you move him up in the lineup until he cools off. 
 

This is not rocket science. Good managers arrange lineups so that their best hitters get more ABs and their worst hitters fewer. Hyde isn’t doing that because he sees Mountcastle and Mateo as who they were last year rather than who they are right now. 
 

If the Orioles make the playoffs it will be by the hairs of their chinny chin chins. We need every game, and Hyde’s lineup management is likely going to cost us games we can’t afford to lose.