Mullins since August 1 2021

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It really depends on the return. No way do I want some more Dominican Lottery tickets kinds of trades. Honestly, if you look at the trades Elias has made, he hasn't exactly found a true nugget yet so I'm not excited about him trading off vets for prospects. 

Now maybe he will better at prospects for prospects kinds of trades, but Bradish looks like the best guy he acquired and I'm still not convinced he's going to be starter at the big league level long term. 

Either way, I'm fine with trading Mancini, Santander or even Mullins if the return was right, but it needs to be for high level (AA/AAA) prospects and not lottery tickets.

Well he also hasn’t traded anyone of real value either.  Bundy was the best and that trade doesn’t look bad at all.

And yes I agree..you don’t deal Mullins for that type of return.  Has to be at least one high impact guy coming back.  I mentioned Max Meyer in the past.  That’s the type of player I need coming back. 

[Spy Fox]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think that when you start to tentatively climb back towards respectability you need to be more judicious in trading everyone with current value for players who might be good in 2-3 years.  Especially players like Mullins who would still be under team control and probably of some value in 2-3 years.

And I'd say the "-" in 2-3 is a pretty big deal for a team at our place on the competition curve. 

That 2025 season where we have Mullins and Hays on Arb 3, but don't have Santander, is a likely peak year for our group. To me that's more reason to be patient with trading Mullins.

I also don't see a weaker two months and assume this is who he is now. This is a guy who went from AAAA guy to All-Star starter so even if this slump is more than random chance, I have some optimism about him finding a way out of it. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

And I'd say the "-" in 2-3 is a pretty big deal for a team at our place on the competition curve. 

That 2025 season where we have Mullins and Hays on Arb 3, but don't have Santander, is a likely peak year for our group. To me that's more reason to be patient with trading Mullins.

I also don't see a weaker two months and assume this is who he is now. This is a guy who went from AAAA guy to All-Star starter so even if this slump is more than random chance, I have some optimism about him finding a way out of it. 

Well it’s actually a weak 4 months although the slugging was good the last few months of 2021.

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well it’s actually a weak 4 months although the slugging was good the last few months of 2021.

Would you trade a top flight Pitcher like Mayer for Mullins?  I don’t think I would.  Especially after the numbers you’ve outlined over the last 4 months.  I think the Mullins trade for top flights prospect boat shipped out last offseason.  He will need to put up some incredible numbers soon to not fall into the one year wonder category.   I don’t see it happening.  He’s a nice player who had an outstanding year, his trade value has taken a massive hit. 

[MurphDogg]

5 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Would you trade a top flight Pitcher like Mayer for Mullins?  I don’t think I would.  Especially after the numbers you’ve outlined over the last 4 months.  I think the Mullins trade for top flights prospect boat shipped out last offseason.  He will need to put up some incredible numbers soon to not fall into the one year wonder category.   I don’t see it happening.  He’s a nice player who had an outstanding year, his trade value has taken a massive hit. 

I don't think anyone was buying his 2021 season as the new normal, so I doubt his trade value has really changed since the offseason, the regression was built into the trade value.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Would you trade a top flight Pitcher like Mayer for Mullins?  I don’t think I would.  Especially after the numbers you’ve outlined over the last 4 months.  I think the Mullins trade for top flights prospect boat shipped out last offseason.  He will need to put up some incredible numbers soon to not fall into the one year wonder category.   I don’t see it happening.  He’s a nice player who had an outstanding year, his trade value has taken a massive hit. 

I wouldn’t but I could see teams doing it.  I think he’s a 2.5-3.5 WAR guy.  That’s a valuable player and it’s a position that’s tough to find. 
 

Like I said in the OP, he needs to heat up some.  If he does that, his trade value will remain high.  If he doesn’t, it may be worth holding onto him.

[emmett16]

37 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't think anyone was buying his 2021 season as the new normal, so I doubt his trade value has really changed since the offseason, the regression was built into the trade value.

That’s a fair assessment and likely true (re:value not taking a big hit).  I do think he needs to put up some significant numbers if he is going to bring anything back or real value.  If he continues along as a 2-3 WAR player, whose main attribute is speed, I don’t think it nets much of value.  He probably brings more value to Baltimore than he does in a trade.  I think Santander & Mancini will be the ones to go in the next couple months.   

[RZNJ]

Buyer beware.   Max had 4 walks and one strikeout his last start.   That always screams injury and that's just what he has.   Something to keep on eye on.   He might be back 100% or you might not see him until April of 2024.

 

he 23-year-old landed on the injured list last week with ulnar nerve irritation in his right elbow, but he'll return to throwing Thursday after being shut down for a week. Meyer will likely need some time to build his arm back up, but he could return to mound work soon since the shutdown was relatively brief.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Buyer beware.   Max had 4 walks and one strikeout his last start.   That always screams injury and that's just what he has.   Something to keep on eye on.   He might be back 100% or you might not see him until April of 2024.

 

he 23-year-old landed on the injured list last week with ulnar nerve irritation in his right elbow, but he'll return to throwing Thursday after being shut down for a week. Meyer will likely need some time to build his arm back up, but he could return to mound work soon since the shutdown was relatively brief.

 

Perfect, 2024 when the O's will finally be good.  I hate the idea of trading for starting pitchers when the O's still aren't competitive.  Pitchers seems to be either damaged goods or about to be damaged goods.  Would rather trade for good pitching prospects at least you get a good discount.

[SteveA]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Any decision made with the thought of this year is an extremely short sighted one and that is essentially what you are doing here.

This coming from the guy who has been beating the drum non-stop for a year about how they aren't doing enough to improve the team currently on the field?

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, SteveA said:

This coming from the guy who has been beating the drum non-stop for a year about how they aren't doing enough to improve the team currently on the field?

Yep..but they didn’t do what it takes to win this year so this point is moot.

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The team went into the season not caring about wins.  So no, I don’t care about winning 65 or 67 games.  I would rather get the return to make the team better when they actually do care about winning.

In 2023, don't Mullins forecast ~2.5 wins have value of $20mm+ and cost of low?    How are the Orioles going to beat that, counting 2023 as a season they care about winning.    They might not have $20mm new cash to buy 2023 wins at all, apart from the other holes on the roster.

Its a consolidation period after a magic carpet ride that was never lasting forever, in which he is still pacing towards 4 wins.   Between Sell High and Buy Low, there is Just Win, which I feel is around where 2023-2024 Mullins is for this group.

The OAA 97 to 39 percentile collapse bears watching.   His speed percentile basically unchanged, so not quite sure what to make of that.    If Hays, Adley and Gunnar jam down the OBP gas pedal, his top of lineup spot might come into question as a delicate matter for Hyde.

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well it’s actually a weak 4 months although the slugging was good the last few months of 2021.

I just think it's a bit of a pessimistic assessment of his value going forward. 

I expect he'll settle in a little better than he's been the last 4 months. There's got to be adjustments made by other teams. Now he has to work through his own. This is still a guy going through a learning curve since it wasn't that long ago that he ditched switch hitting.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

In 2023, don't Mullins forecast ~2.5 wins have value of $20mm+ and cost of low?    How are the Orioles going to beat that, counting 2023 as a season they care about winning.    They might not have $20mm new cash to buy 2023 wins at all, apart from the other holes on the roster.

Its a consolidation period after a magic carpet ride that was never lasting forever, in which he is still pacing towards 4 wins.   Between Sell High and Buy Low, there is Just Win, which I feel is around where 2023-2024 Mullins is for this group.

The OAA 97 to 39 percentile collapse bears watching.   His speed percentile basically unchanged, so not quite sure what to make of that.    If Hays, Adley and Gunnar jam down the OBP gas pedal, his top of lineup spot might come into question as a delicate matter for Hyde.

It’s not 2023 that I have concerns about.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I just think it's a bit of a pessimistic assessment of his value going forward. 

I expect he'll settle in a little better than he's been the last 4 months. There's got to be adjustments made by other teams. Now he has to work through his own. This is still a guy going through a learning curve since it wasn't that long ago that he ditched switch hitting.

What is pessimistic w/r/t the post you quoted?