Santander vs. Mancini

[MarCakes21]

We continue to discuss these guys as trade options since they're slightly older and might free up space for Stowers or others to come up through the system.  I wanted to take a side by side to discuss who has the better current trade value as well as future team value:

Age (Santander listed first/Mancini listed second):

27.239 / 30.89

 

Contract: (2022/2023/2024

Santander: 3.15mil /Arb3/Arb4

Mancini: 7.5mil /10mil/ UFA

 

Stats: (OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+)

Santander: .337/.397/.735/113+

Mancini: .374/.448/.822/138+

 

WAR: (oWAR/dWAR)

Santander: 0.9/-0.4

Mancini: 1.5/-0.4

 

So obviously Mancini is having the better season and likely even has the better long term numbers.  As a DH he probably needs a new contract to extend out through his age 34 season.  What is the right value if he's extended?  Could Santander replicate those numbers?  Who is more tradeable and will fetch more given current contracts and production?

 

[Moose Milligan]

I'm fine with keeping Mancini (I know, SG, it's such a terrible idea) if he's strictly DH.  He can't play in the field.  Maybe 1st base every so often, but that's it.  I'm getting the feeling that he's going to approach his 2019 levels now that he's had a full year post-cancer.  

That said, if someone blows the Orioles away with a deal, you've gotta make it.  But what does the market look like for a strict DH who just turned 30?  I dunno.

Santander is the guy I'd look to move to make room for Stowers.  I can't imagine there's a huge market for him either, but whatever. 

[Sports Guy]

I would rather keep Mancini for a few years vs Santander.

I think Trey is far more reliable and he’s a better hitter.

He is just a lot more expensive but the team isn’t going to spend the money on anyone else anyway.

[Frobby]

I think Mancini is definitely the better hitter.   Santander is the better outfielder by a pretty wide margin, though he’s not as fast as he was in 2020.   Then there’s the age gap, which shouldn’t be discounted.  If I had to guess which player would be more valuable over, say, the three seasons after this one, I’d guess Mancini, but not necessarily by a lot.   Depends on how both of them age and whether they can stay healthy (especially Santander).

I’d guess Santander has more trade value since he’s under control longer, but there might be appeal to a team looking to upgrade the DH or 1B spot just for this season with Mancini.   And the season is still young enough where the picture could look a bit different at the all-star break.   

Bottom line, I’d be willing to trade either one for a decent future piece in an area of need.   If one brings a bigger return than the other, I’d go for that.  
 

[RZNJ]

Santander before he goes down again.  Good player but expendable and Stowers should be a defensive upgrade there.

[MurphDogg]

That 10M for Mancini for 2023 isn't a real number. A mutual option has never, to my knowledge, been exercised by both of the parties. It was just a way to shift some of Mancini's 2022 salary to a lump sum payment at the time either the Orioles and/or Mancini decline the option.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

27 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm fine with keeping Mancini (I know, SG, it's such a terrible idea) if he's strictly DH.  He can't play in the field.  Maybe 1st base every so often, but that's it.  I'm getting the feeling that he's going to approach his 2019 levels now that he's had a full year post-cancer.  

That said, if someone blows the Orioles away with a deal, you've gotta make it.  But what does the market look like for a strict DH who just turned 30?  I dunno.

Santander is the guy I'd look to move to make room for Stowers.  I can't imagine there's a huge market for him either, but whatever. 

The one factor that might improve the odds of a trade is the universal DH now in MLB. There's no need for the Orioles to play Mancini in the outfield to pretend he can play the outfield and help juice his trade value. 

I'd prefer to trade Mancini, but this is based on the perception the Orioles have a payroll limit and resigning Mancini could prevent the Orioles from signing another player. 

[webbrick2010]

Been a fan of Santander. I think it will be dangerous to trade him because:

1. You won't really get much

2. I still think the has the ability (now that he is healthy) to start putting up big numbers. I keep thinking of him as having a Jose Bautista career trajectory. Probably my own pipe dream, but I wouldn't give up on him yet.

[RZNJ]

If Santander starts going to Bautista's pharmacist, maybe.

[Aristotelian]

I would like to trade them both. If I'm Elias I would be asking more for Santander due to his lower cost and higher defensive value. 

[baltimoreO's22]

Put me in the camp that prefers to extend Mancini rather than trade him, pending there isn't an offer you "can't refuse." He is one of the better players on the team and I think he could be a good bat to have in the lineup on a contending team, even into his early 30s. 

[OriolesMagic83]

I prefer the O's trade Mancini over extending him.  It looks like the first year the O's will compete for a playoff spot is 2024 at the earliest.  The O's have made zero effort to add pieces to make them a playoff team.  Mancini is a good hitter and teammate and could be part of a playoff team but what about 2024 or 2025 Mancini?  The O's have 2 years to find Mancini's replacement and finding DHs is much easier than finding SS or above average starters.

[vab]

I really think Santander is what he is at this point and I'd just take the best deal possible for him. I would trade Mancini too but it would only be at a premium. Now, two years clear of cancer, he appears to be fully back to his 2019 form and I don't see why he can't do this for at least another 2-3 years. He is not a guy you just deal cavalierly and take whatever you can get. Full disclosure - I would have dealt Mancini pretty casually at the deadline last year and probably this offseason but I would have been wrong. He has really turned me around on his value this year. 

[baltimoreO's22]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I prefer the O's trade Mancini over extending him.  It looks like the first year the O's will compete for a playoff spot is 2024 at the earliest.  The O's have made zero effort to add pieces to make them a playoff team.  Mancini is a good hitter and teammate and could be part of a playoff team but what about 2024 or 2025 Mancini?  The O's have 2 years to find Mancini's replacement and finding DHs is much easier than finding SS or above average starters.

There are plenty of DH that hit well into their early 30s. The last time the Orioles had a good one and let him go was Cruz, and that didn't pan out. I just don't see the point in trading your (currently) best hitter if you aren't getting much in return.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, vab said:

I really think Santander is what he is at this point 

I’m not sure I know what he is.  His walk rate is way up this year.   His power is down somewhat, maybe not disproportionately to other players.  His BA is down a bit over previous seasons.  His OBP is easily at a career high, his SLG is a career low if you exclude his first two seasons where he didn’t play much.   So I’m not sure where he settles in.