Who do you want? Who do we take?

[baltimoreO's22]

Hope the pick is Jones

Think the pick will be Lee

If Jones is as good as the scouts say he is, then I don't think he will be in the minors longer than Lee anyways. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Found this picture of SG and RZNJ:

 

Anyway, the more I've thought about it, if we don't take Jones (and the more we go along, NOT taking him seems like a WTF move as he continues to seemingly separate himself from the pack), I agree with @TheWallthat I could sell myself on any one of the other remaining guys, minus Berry and Lee. 

If it were Berry, I think I'd actually be pretty upset.  If it were not Jones and one of the remaining guys I'd be somewhat disappointed that it wasn't Jones but try to look at the positive side of things and focus on the upside of whoever we just drafted.

Johnson:  MLB.com raves about the bat-to-ball skills, says some evaluators are giving his bat a near 80 grade.  That would be hard not to get excited about.  I couldn't care less that he's 5'8", there have been plenty of smaller players who have done very well for themselves.  The fact that height is a focal point is silly.

Green:  Elite runner.  But the swing and miss in his game still worries me, even though the writeup on MLB.com (shut up, I'm not paying for Baseball America) says it's gotten better.  Seems like an elite overall athlete which would be welcomed.

Holliday:  SS is always welcome, great bloodlines.  

Collier:  Younger than the rest, playing well against older talent.  Doesn't appear to have a problem against velocity.

Jones should be the pick though.

Great post and good thoughts on Green. Jones, Holiday and maybe Parada seem strong (Parada being best bat in class but not a strong defensive catcher so likely 1b, 3b? Or corner OF. 

[OriolesMagic83]

No picks by Tony?  Would be interesting to hear his take.  It's so hard to compare a guy playing in the SEC or other major conference vs. a guy playing in a rural HS league. 

[seak05]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Another question.   If Collier ceiling is a good hitting 3B with some power, what advantage is there in taking him over Brooks Lee who profiles as a good hitting 3B with some power?    Brooks Lee is more of a sure thing.    I'd have to believe that Collier has a much higher ceiling in order for me to take him.

Then why do you want to take Jones? His power is only half a grade higher then Lee? The thing with Collier is he's so young, his body type and swing suggests he has more power potential, but at the same age last year, no one was even talking about Jones for the #1 pick

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Then why do you want to take Jones? His power is only half a grade higher then Lee? The thing with Collier is he's so young, his body type and swing suggests he has more power potential, but at the same age last year, no one was even talking about Jones for the #1 pick

Everyone has Jones #1 and talk 30/30 potential with plus or plus plus defense in CF.  Sounds like the highest upside to me.  It seems obvious that his hitting this spring vaulted him from top 5 to #1.  Frankly, the fact that Law, Callis, and McDaniel all feel he's clearly #1 factors heavily.

You didn't answer my question regarding Collier vs. Lee.

Also, I'd have to go back but I think Jones clearly was in the discussion. Johnson was considered 1 but Jones was in the top 5 discussion. 

[seak05]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Everyone has Jones #1 and talk 30/30 potential with plus or plus plus defense in CF.  Sounds like the highest upside to me.  It seems obvious that his hitting this spring vaulted him from top 5 to #1.  Frankly, the fact that Law, Callis, and McDaniel all feel he's clearly #1 factors heavily.

You didn't answer my question regarding Collier vs. Lee.

Also, I'd have to go back but I think Jones clearly was in the discussion. Johnson was considered 1 but Jones was in the top 5 discussion. 

Last year at this time it was Green and Johnson, but mostly Green. Collier, Lee, and Jones all offer plus defense potential. Plus defense at 3b is equivalent to plus defense in CF, 2b (Lee) might be slightly higher. If you look at Law on Collier, then yes scouts think he'll have more power then Lee, because he is younger though, you are doing more projection. He also has a stronger arm. Generally speaking though, prospects who hit well against older competition, tend to be more likely to outperform their pre-draft rankings, Correa and Machado are a couple examples of this, as is Gunnar. 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

C being #1 is cringeworthy.

 

Why do you say that?   That’s the way it is.  It’s harder to find offense at C than any other position.  This year for example the average OPS at C is .648; no other position is below .682.    So, if there are two players with an identical OPS, an average defender at C has more value than an average defender at SS or anywhere else.  

However, what these positional adjustments don’t take account of is the number of runs that can be saved by an outstanding defender compared to an average defender at one position vs. another.   I haven’t studied that carefully but per Fangraphs at least this year it appears a great C can save more runs than a great SS or CF.  In my mind, that’s a more uncertain conclusion than the one about where it’s most difficult to find offense.

 

 

 

[LookinUp]

This thread has made me kind of agnostic about who we take.

I'd love a pure SS. I'd love a pure CF. In my mind, a CF is more valuable than a 3B or a 2B, but I guess the experts think differently.

I know everyone's high on BPA, particularly in baseball, I do think we have good 3B/2B prospects in our system now, so all things being equal I'd go CF or SS (if he fits this high). Seems like Jones is the best pick to me.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, seak05 said:

Last year at this time it was Green and Johnson, but mostly Green. Collier, Lee, and Jones all offer plus defense potential. Plus defense at 3b is equivalent to plus defense in CF, 2b (Lee) might be slightly higher. If you look at Law on Collier, then yes scouts think he'll have more power then Lee, because he is younger though, you are doing more projection. He also has a stronger arm. Generally speaking though, prospects who hit well against older competition, tend to be more likely to outperform their pre-draft rankings, Correa and Machado are a couple examples of this, as is Gunnar. 

Disagree. Jones has higher defensive potential in CF than Collier at 3B and a higher floor defensively.  Most say Jones is plus right now and could be better.  I haven't seen much on Collier besides he has a good arm and could stick at 3B bit it's no slam dunk. I haven't seen ONE report mentioning Jones having to move to LF in the future. 

I said Jones was in the top 5 at the end of last year and coming into this year. It's not like he shot up to #1 from nowhere. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Why do you say that?   That’s the way it is.  It’s harder to find offense at C than any other position.  This year for example the average OPS at C is .648; no other position is below .682.    So, if there are two players with an identical OPS, an average defender at C has more value than an average defender at SS or anywhere else.  

However, what these positional adjustments don’t take account of is the number of runs that can be saved by an outstanding defender compared to an average defender at one position vs. another.   I haven’t studied that carefully but per Fangraphs at least this year it appears a great C can save more runs than a great SS or CF.  In my mind, that’s a more uncertain conclusion than the one about where it’s most difficult to find offense.

 

 

 

I have made my position known on C defense and how overrated I think it is.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I have made my position known on C defense and how overrated I think it is.

Fine, but the positional adjustments used in WAR calculations don’t turn on the value of catcher defense, they turn on the scarcity of catcher offense.   

I can see the case either way for how valuable catcher defense is.   I’m not confident that the metrics designed to measure it are very accurate.   But it’s certainly true that a catcher receives about 80-100 pitches a game (excluding foul balls and balls in play), many of which are borderline pitches or in the dirt, and thus a catcher has many more opportunities to impact a game than other position players do.  
 

[interloper]

I think we go Jackson Holliday. Will stick at SS, which I think is a big factor, and he'll sign for less than Jones. Johnson is a 2B only, so if it's close, you take the SS. 

[seak05]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Disagree. Jones has higher defensive potential in CF than Collier at 3B and a higher floor defensively.  Most say Jones is plus right now and could be better.  I haven't seen much on Collier besides he has a good arm and could stick at 3B bit it's no slam dunk. I haven't seen ONE report mentioning Jones having to move to LF in the future. 

I said Jones was in the top 5 at the end of last year and coming into this year. It's not like he shot up to #1 from nowhere. 

Fair enough, if you think CF defense is more valuable then 3b defense, that's obviously a point for Jones. Analytics suggests that players who do well younger against older players, tend do better as pro's, which for me is a point for Collier (presuming he plays well in the Cape). But the reality is I'd be fine with any one of Jones, Holliday, Lee, and Collier (I'm not as sold on Johnson's bat as some scouts...but I could also be wrong)

33 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think we go Jackson Holliday. Will stick at SS, which I think is a big factor, and he'll sign for less than Jones. Johnson is a 2B only, so if it's close, you take the SS. 

I think if we go Holiday its because the Orioles think he's BPA, there's been zero indication he would take under slot/sign for less then Jones. He's got a strong college option, and he's not going to fall far if he doesn't go 1:1

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, seak05 said:

Fair enough, if you think CF defense is more valuable then 3b defense, that's obviously a point for Jones. Analytics suggests that players who do well younger against older players, tend do better as pro's, which for me is a point for Collier (presuming he plays well in the Cape). But the reality is I'd be fine with any one of Jones, Holliday, Lee, and Collier (I'm not as sold on Johnson's bat as some scouts...but I could also be wrong)

I think if we go Holiday its because the Orioles think he's BPA, there's been zero indication he would take under slot/sign for less then Jones. He's got a strong college option, and he's not going to fall far if he doesn't go 1:1

I didn’t say CF defense was more important than 3B defense.  I said Jones has a higher ceiling and floor in CF compared to Collier at 3B.

[Sports Guy]

Let’s stop talking like college is an option for these guys.  They aren’t going to college unless someone is trying to sign them for like 2M.