O's on the edge of contention in July

[Too Tall]

I do not know what amazed me more last night - the come-back win - or the crowd and the energy/excitement generated througout the stadium. For a moment in time, I was back to The Good Buck Playoff Days. 

It appears we are now going to see Elias is a different gear. Anxious to see how he does balancing The Plan with the cjurrent situation. I am trying not to get too excited. Still a lot of games to play and I am still not sold on our over-all pitching let alone infield. Sure there are some internal possibilities but that is what they are - possibilities. In my opinion and generally speaking, if we trade established pieces we need to get quality return that potentially helps at the ML level within the next year. And, there better not be any trade that comes across as a  salary dump on a team with this payroll. 

If you look back over a month ago - isn't it "a hoot" this board is even having this discussion just 10 days before the All Star Game?

[wildcard]

No one seems to be figuring the injuries into the 2nd half.  In the first half the O's lost Means, Ellis, Mountcastle, Hays, and Urias to injuries for some games.  And made moves to get Zimmermann and Fry off the roster for non performance.

There will be players that are lost for some games in the 2nd half as well.  Anyone want to take bets on whether Hays, Santander, Mullins and Trey stay healthy for all of the 2nd half or is Stowers needed to fill in for injured players.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, SteveA said:

How do you come to the conclusion that's as a fresh rookie, Stowers would replace 90% of Trey's production this year?  No doubt he is the better long-term option but we have seen many more highly touted rookies than Stowers come up and struggle initially.  Totkelson, or April Witt for example.  In terms of this season we don't know what Stowers might do, but we have a pretty good idea of wh at Trey will give us.

Not saying we shouldnt trade Trey.  But the context of this particular discussion is the fact that we are on the fringe of contention this year, and to assume that Stowers would come up and immediately replace 90% of Trey's production is a big leap, IMO.

This.   Not saying it’s not possible that Stowers will be good immediately, but I sure wouldn’t count on it.  

[NCRaven]

I am happy this team.  I do not buy into any belief that the current roster can contend this year.  If trading Mancini, Santander, Lyles or Lopez can help us contend next year or longer term, I’d do it in a heartbeat.  

Promote Vavra and Westburg and move Urias into the lineup with Mateo on the bench for late inning defense and pinch running, then come back and talk to me.

[btdart20]

10 hours ago, wildcard said:

If their additions are Hall,  Grayson, Harvey, Vavra, Stowers, Westburg  and  Gunnar that would be fine.

There are spots for the pitchers but Vavra, Stowers, Westburg, and Gunnar can only make an impact if something happens to Odor, Santander, Mateo, Urias, and/or Mancini.  So is trading the current starters away conceding?  Or making room the talent to rise?

[Greenpastures23]

The play-in game is not the playoffs. It's a game to get into the playoffs 

[SteveA]

12 minutes ago, Greenpastures23 said:

The play-in game is not the playoffs. It's a game to get into the playoffs 

There isnt a playin game anymore.

There are 3 wild cards.  The 3 wild cards and the worst division winner play best of 3  series.  (D3 vs WC3 and WC1 vs WC2).  All 3 games home games for the higher seed.

[wildcard]

54 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

There are spots for the pitchers but Vavra, Stowers, Westburg, and Gunnar can only make an impact if something happens to Odor, Santander, Mateo, Urias, and/or Mancini.  So is trading the current starters away conceding?  Or making room the talent to rise?

This team is winning now.  They are not robots.  You can't just plug and play them and keep winning.  

There is a big hurdle in the next week.  The Rays and the Yanks for 10 games.  That will tell us how good the current team is before the deadline.   I am going to watch what happens.  Not predict one way or another.   But those games will tell a lot.

But we know now that Nevin and Arauz don't need to on this team and can be optioned.   That's two roster spots that can be filled by young guys.   Hyde loves to rotate guys in and out of the lineup.   Give him 13 position players with combined better talent and he can handle getting the best out of them.  Everybody does not have to play everyday. Especially in the summer heat.

We also know there will be injuries.   

Don Baylor won the AAA International League MVP in 1970.   The O's won the World Series that same year.   There was no room for Baylor in the majors with the O's.  He played most of 1971 at AAA.   Its not crime to have too much talent in your organization.

And there will be an off season where Elias can decide who to keep and who to trade. I think Elias will find room for Gunnar and Westburg over the winter if not before.

Everything does not have to happen at the deadline.  They really only need to figure out what they want to do with Trey. Trade him/extend him or let him walk at the end of the season.

[foxfield]

Mancini must be traded if value is offered. It was always going to hurt. It would be malpractice to not get value for him because we might get a wild card. 
 

The only reason to not trade Mancini is you are not offered enough. 
 

My 2cents

[sportsfan8703]

13 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Mancini must be traded if value is offered. It was always going to hurt. It would be malpractice to not get value for him because we might get a wild card. 
 

The only reason to not trade Mancini is you are not offered enough. 
 

My 2cents

But what if we’re contending?  How much is he worth to us?

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Mancini must be traded if value is offered. It was always going to hurt. It would be malpractice to not get value for him because we might get a wild card. 
 

The only reason to not trade Mancini is you are not offered enough. 
 

My 2cents

The last time the O's were in the playoffs was 2016.  6 years ago.  If this team can win a playoff spot they should do it.  To not do what they can to make the playoffs would be malpractice.

My 2 cents

[Hallas]

We’re a bit too close to the fringes of contention for me to feel comfortable making a run for it but I’m certainly not selling anyone other than Santander or maybe a couple other guys.

 

I’m not entirely sure if I’m buying our pitching either.  Maybe the new park effects are making them look better too.  (I also have no idea how park effects work for stadiums that changed dimensions.)

[foxfield]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

But what if we’re contending?  How much is he worth to us?

Contending?  We are 20 games out of first and in 5th in our division of 5. 

I love what is happening and this weekend have been outstanding as a fan. But please, let’s not confuse competing with contending. 
 

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Contending?  We are 20 games out of first and in 5th in our division of 5. 

I love what is happening and this weekend have been outstanding as a fan. But please, let’s not confuse competing with contending. 
 

Agreed …nothing that Elias is saying indicates he’ll deviate from the plan. 

[Jagwar]

3 hours ago, NCRaven said:

I am happy this team.  I do not buy into any belief that the current roster can contend this year.  If trading Mancini, Santander, Lyles or Lopez can help us contend next year or longer term, I’d do it in a heartbeat.  

Promote Vavra and Westburg and move Urias into the lineup with Mateo on the bench for late inning defense and pinch running, then come back and talk to me.

This is EXACTLY what I wanted to post in this thread. 

I love this winning streak. And this team is different than the last number of seasons. I want another Why Not season (with a better ending!) but I want the entire system to be as strong as possible. Unless the team rips of 20 wins in a row, I think the plan to inject talent into this system is unchanged. You do that by trading away ML players for prospects.